저자: 제이비 · 한국인
요약 보기
반도체·SOXL·엔비디아 급락 속 공포 극복법으로 장기/단기 계좌 분리와 단기계좌 분할 익절을 제시. 반도체 하락은 펀더멘털이 아닌 섹터 로테이션이라 주장하며 저가 매수 재진입을 기대. 은행·에너지·리테일 강세, 애플 반독점 이슈 무시 및 인력감축 호재, 아마존 Target Plus 악재, 테슬라 중국산 EV 관세·독일 입장·리비안 흑자 전망으로 하락 등 시장 해설. 당일 매수 포지션 진입 예고(회원 커뮤니티 공지). 채권은 파월 아닌 메리 데일리 발언 후 반등 언급.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello, this is JB. Membership member Jeong Dong-hyun has sent us a valuable Super Thanks donation. Thank you so much, and I will do my best to ensure you continue to receive much support. So, in today's video, seeing SOXL, QUI, and Nvidia plummeting so sharply over the past few days, I know many of you are trembling in fear.
I will share my personal method for overcoming this fear. I will also discuss some noteworthy movements in the market yesterday, such as how bond prices suddenly reversed course and ended up rising after falling. I will explain why Tesla, despite starting strong amidst the overall positive atmosphere in the EV sector, inevitably ended in a decline as time went on.
Additionally, I will share my personal thoughts on the strong rise in banking, energy, and retail stocks. Given the rise in retail stocks, it seems Amazon should have risen as well, so I will discuss why Amazon ended up in a decline instead. Finally, I will talk about how Apple was able to finish higher despite the renewed antitrust issues in Europe, which threatened to wipe out 10 percent of its total revenue.
Let 's take a look. And before we begin, I would like to make an announcement to our membership members. I think I will likely enter a buy position today. I plan to decide whether it is better to buy during the pre-market, the main market, or both, depending on how the situation unfolds today. Anyway, I will post two updates for the membership community.
The first will be posted early, from the start of the pre-market until 8 PM, and the second will be posted from the start of the main market until 11 PM. So, for those of you who rely on my buy and sell recommendations, please check the real-time membership community board during those times. Okay, then, let's get started with today's video.
First of all, looking at the market overall yesterday, it wasn't that bad. Since we mainly invest in large-cap tech and semiconductor stocks, it might have felt like it was very bad, but if we look at the entire sector, it was actually good. The Russell 2000, a group of small and medium-sized stocks, also closed higher, and the movements of banking, energy, and retail stocks were also good.
While you all probably have an idea why this happened, I think there is a rotation of trading towards sectors that haven't risen enough recently. In fact, yesterday, semiconductors There were no specific negative factors reported for the sector; on the contrary, as always, quite a few positive news stories were released.
Nevertheless, since the market has risen so continuously without rest, you can view this as a situation where it is continuing to undergo a correction. Additionally, we have seen significant signs that funds from institutions, which have reaped substantial profits from semiconductor stocks, are now flowing into other sectors.
For those who are overly worried about the recent decline in the semiconductor sector, let me mention one point you might find helpful. I have mentioned this a few times before, but for a real bear market to begin, money needs to completely flow out of the stock market—everyone, without exception, has to pull out.
However, the fact that money has specifically flowed out of the semiconductor sector in this manner suggests that you should simply view this as a rotation of investments focused on stocks that haven't risen as much. Furthermore, if this outflow is due to simple supply and demand issues rather than corporate fundamentals, I believe that the moment semiconductor stocks feel cheap again, buying pressure will immediately return, and the stock prices will recover quickly.
So, why were banking, energy, and retail stocks able to show strength yesterday, in particular? It is simple. First, they were undervalued compared to other stocks, and crucially... This is because indicators showing a strong economy continue to emerge. The most recent key indicator released was the PMI last Friday, which came out positively exhibiting typical "Goldilocks" patterns.
Therefore, I believe this also influenced the rise in the sector. In particular, the banking sector, which had been falling after being overvalued, seems to have been able to put up a strong defensive position against competitors as expectations spread ahead of the stress test results announcement. Regarding bond prices, it seemed like they might close slightly lower yesterday, but they were able to turn upward near the end of trading following remarks by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
She mentioned that while concerns about inflation remain, recent inflation figures are very hopeful, noting that we are approaching an inflection point where the job market slows and the unemployment rate rises. She further added that high interest rates should not be prolonged to balance price stability and maximum employment, thereby giving momentum to the rise in bonds.
Now, regarding individual company news, I will report on Apple, Amazon, and Tesla. First, Apple rose despite the frustrating situation caused by the recent antitrust lawsuit in Europe; why was this possible? Well, first of all, now... Investors aren't reacting very sensitively to antitrust tactics. This is because getting embroiled in antitrust lawsuits has become so commonplace for Big Tech companies that there is now a general atmosphere of just accepting it and moving on.
Also, yesterday, news broke that Apple is preparing to cut its iPhone assembly line workforce by nearly half. These days, when companies announce workforce reductions, the market accepts it favorably because it helps with cost savings. Therefore, it seems this had a positive impact on Apple yesterday.
As for why Amazon fell alone while retail stocks generally performed well yesterday, it was news that Target, another major retailer, is partnering with SoFi to launch Target Plus. Recent earnings reports revealed that Target's online sales are steadily improving, and partnering with SoFi could potentially lead to even better performance.
Conversely, for Amazon, which needs to maintain its online sales market share, this is inevitably quite uncomfortable news. So, you can assume that Amazon fell yesterday due to this news. Now, let's talk about Tesla. At the beginning of yesterday's trading session, there was a sense of anticipation, with people wondering, "Will they really make a run today?" There are several reasons for this, but first...
There was news that Tesla has already laid off over 14% of its total workforce this year and plans to increase that figure to 20% in the future. This was cost-cutting news that the market would appreciate. Additionally, there was news that 8,000 Cybertrucks have already been delivered in the U.S. due to increased production this year, leading to expectations of improved margins.
Furthermore, news that Canada has imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles also emerged, creating a positive atmosphere in the early stages. However, the reason the stock suddenly gave back all its gains and was forced to close lower is that, firstly, Germany— Europe's largest economy—showed a somewhat reluctant stance regarding the tariff policy on Chinese electric vehicles, which has recently become a hot topic in the European Union.
The German Minister of Economy revealed a willingness to negotiate with China regarding the tariff policy. Well, since Germany's recent economic situation is not particularly good and it is no longer the country that wielded such immense power in the past, it is likely that they are using this as an excuse to strike back against China to their advantage.
In any case, if Germany acts this way and low-cost Chinese electric vehicles flood the European market, it will be frustrating for Tesla, which has to compete with them. It is an unavoidable situation, so this acted as the first negative factor. Additionally, news has emerged that Rivian is on the verge of turning a profit based on cost reductions and increased productivity.
This news could also be bothersome for Tesla. This is because, until now, Tesla was the only company in the U.S. making a profit from electric vehicles; however, the sentiment has spread that if Rivian starts making a profit from EVs like this, Tesla's unrivaled position might be shaken. Consequently, due to this news, Tesla ultimately could not hold on yesterday and closed lower.
Finally, I would like to introduce a method that might be helpful for those struggling mentally due to the recent declines in SOXL and Nvidia stock prices. I think it would be beneficial to manage your accounts by dividing them into a long-term investment account and a short-term trading account. In the short-term account, you should actively take profits whenever you feel you have made a significant gain.
If you do this, even if SOXL rises sharply after you take profits, the aftermath won't feel too severe because you still have some volume remaining in the long-term investment account. Of course, in this case, you do honestly feel a sense of regret—thinking, "Ah, if I hadn't sold at all, my profit would have been much bigger." I do feel like it, but if you keep thinking like this, there is no end to it.
When on earth am I supposed to realize profits? Then it’s no different from virtual money. Also, because 3x leverage has such high volatility, if you hold on like that and get hit with a sharp correction like this, you end up regretting, "I should have taken partial profits back then. Then I could have bought more at a low price now." Of course, there are people who are naturally suited for long-term investing.
Those who just steadily accumulate through dollar-cost averaging and remain completely unfazed by market trends—for them, just holding on might be the right choice. And their actual returns might even be better. However, if you clicked on today's video, there is a high probability that you are someone whose mental state is quite shaken.
Therefore, I think it would be good for you to split your accounts into two, operating a long-term investment account and a day trading account separately. For reference, my membership members and I also operate by separating our accounts in this way. And a few days before this short-term crash, the SOXL holdings in the day trading account were not at their peak, but they were still doing quite well.
I took full profits at the peak, seeing a return of around 50%. As a result, everyone's psychological state is very stable right now. Even if we were to buy back that much immediately, we could purchase a larger quantity at a lower price. Therefore, I am actually hoping for a bigger drop. Anyway, as I have mentioned several times before, I believe that triple leverage investing should be conducted by taking profits in moderation.
I also believe that managing risk in this way provides the strength to sustain long-term investing more stably. So, that’s all for today’s video. As I mentioned at the beginning, I expect to enter some buying positions today, so for membership members who want to refer to my buy and sell signals, please keep an eye on the real-time membership community board at 8 PM for the pre-market and 11 AM for the main market.
I hope all my subscribers have a great day, and for the members, I will see you again tonight when the US market opens. Thank you.
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