저자: TomNash · 외국인
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캐시 우드가 팔란티어를 대량 매수한 사실을 근거로, 팔란티어가 소수의 진짜 AI 기업이며 정부 매출·높은 마진·현금흐름·S&P500 편입 가능성을 들어 장기 보유를 주장. 단기 변동성은 인정하나 적립식 장기 투자를 권함. 과거 대비 밸류에이션 부담은 인정하면서도 장기 성장으로 소화 가능하다는 견해.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood is buying 2 million shares of volunteer now we have Kramer saying bye byebye we have Kathy Wood buying 2 million shares we have every single analyst out there upgrading the price Target we have Den iives from W bush coming out with $30 price target for paler I think the sentiment of paler was never better not even in the good old days when the stock was in the 30s and the mid-30s and the 40s I can't even remember those days I think this is the real deal because now it's not about the meme stockish of this thing now it's coming from a place of fundamental understanding of the greatness of this company and the insane potential of its trajectory but the real question here is why Kathy Wood would buy so much shares at 52 we highs has she gone mad well not exactly allow me to explain I know the price right now is a little bit high and I know it's coming off of a crazy run but if you are playing the long game if you're playing the five to 10 year game it doesn't matter if you bought it for 30 or 35 or 25 or 45 allow me to explain you see paler is right now probably one of the very few pure real AI companies there's a lot of Pretenders there's a lot of copycats there's a lot of hype artists there's a lot of marketing I think right now we're kind of experiencing the second coming of the Doom bubble in the Doom bubble there were a lot of noise a lot of hype a lot of marketing but the very few companies that were for real became behemoths for the next 25 years it's the same thing that's happening right now if you can spot the ones that are real you're going to find the next Microsoft the next Google the next Amazon so I think that Kathy understands and rightfully so that penter which is a company that was built to be an AI company 17 years ago or 18 years ago before AI companies were even the thing it's probably one of the only real AI plays you have a few more but this is the one now that's not the only reason in fact there's a few more but that's just the beginning now she's also probably looking at the stable profitability of the company they're no longer kind of Staggering in the Lost territory five straight quarters of Gap profitability is not something that's easy to achieve for a company like paler she's also probably looking at the insane margins that the company's creating the margins has not only gotten better it has got mind-blowingly good 84% gross margin we have 50% free cash flow margin we have 20% of Revenue growth with absolutely no change in operating expenses this is a company that's printing money $3.7 billion in the bank no debt four times more assets and liabilities and I think the most exciting part about paler is the growth pipeline they have last year I mean 2022 right they did a 100 Pilots this year they did 500 pilots and I bet when we look at 2024 it's going to 5x again and and if you understand that this is the pipeline this is the funnel for paler to get AIP clients you can't help but get excited because you see like it's the same thing like Nvidia holding down the infrastructure AI Market by the balls Palante has the operating system so if envidia is essentially Priceless right now because the infrastructure play is quas monopolistic what about the guys who are doing the new windows the new operating system for AI who don't care which computer you have what Hardware you have they got the operating system if this is the new Gold Rush this is the shovels Nvidia is selling one type of shovel you know the infrastructure peners selling the software the operating system why would one be such an amazing company and the other one will have so much doubt and skepticism I think KY sees this now the thing with this company is that even if you buy it now and we have a recession or we have some bad times this is a company that has a Recession Proof business model because half of the stuff are coming in from the government which literally doesn't matter if the company goes into recessionary period High interest rates slow down economy the government business of paler will always be there like a warm blanket on top of it we have the main knock on paler the delusion the stock-based compensation literally slowing down to a halt and that's something we talked about two years ago when we explained that the stock base compensation spikes we've seen have more to do with building a new Salesforce for the company than anything else and that will eventually be phased out which is exactly what's on right now delusion isn't a thing anymore now on top of it you have to understand that peners business model is brilliant because they are absolutely agnostic they don't care which large language model wins the AI Awards they don't care if it's one if it's multiple they have the operating system to work with whoever wins this war on top of it we have the S&P inclusion at this point pretty much certain which means a lot of institutional interest will come in which means it's going to be a 50 to 60% institutionally own stock which give it a lot of stability and a lot of upside so I think she's looking at the combination of all these things and she's saying well look I might be buying this a little bit expensive right now but if I'm going to hold it for the next 5 years I think that might be my next Tesla jump which I can't argue with now it doesn't mean that the stock is cheap right now it is not cheap it is definitely not cheap but if you look at price to sales like I mentioned before it's definitely cheaper than snowflake than Cloud flare than zscaler and others and it will grow into its own price earnings much like Tesla did Tesla was a very expensive PE ratio company and then they eventually grew into their valuation the reason I'm so confident in saying that is because I'm looking at comparables I'm looking at CRM Salesforce a company that does B2B software they're $200 billion company if penter gets to that point which I believe is the floor the bearish case scenario for penter they're at least five or 4X away from the real valuation as we stand today now on top of it look the stock can go down it can be volatile this is a very very volatile stock I 100% agree but it is also a very good mechanism of transferring wealth from the impatient paper hands Traders which we've shown in the previous video and I'm not going to do it again to the patient long-term investors and it will always be that for me it's very very simple I dollar cost average I buy more when it's down I buy a little bit less when it's up and I do it every single month like I'm on the mission simple now if you would like to learn more about penter you can join our Discord for free discord.gg Tom Nash we would love to see you there join our community talk to us and if you'd like to become a student in our Academy we have two spots left at the Tom Nash investing Academy on patreon patreon.com Nash and if if You' like to learn how to analyze stocks for yourself by using the retail oriented stock research tool that I've built for you check out stock MVP at stock dmvpn we have MVP cards we have DCF models we have a lot of options for any retail investors we have a lot of new Tools in stock MVP which we build specifically for retail investors for long-term investors not for Traders we would love for you to check it out you can try it out for a week for free and then if you like it stay on board and join our community thank you so much go here go Blue we'll see you in the next one
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