저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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미국 증시는 세제개혁 기대와 글로벌 경기 개선에 힘입어 상승세가 이어졌으나, 밸류에이션 부담이 커진 만큼 일부 현금화를 고려할 시점이라는 신중론이다. 의료보험 개혁(Obamacare 폐지) 실패 여부보다 시장은 세제개혁이 추진될지에 더 주목하고 있으며, 세제개혁이 이뤄지면 성장 모멘텀이 추가로 강화될 수 있다고 봤다. 증시 상승의 배경은 ①미국 외 지역 경기 개선 ②연준 및 주요 중앙은행의 완화적 스탠스 지속 기대 ③기업들의 현금 보유분이 시장으로 재유입되는 흐름 세 가지다. 다만 자산가격을 뒷받침하려면 미국 펀더멘털 개선이 뒤따라야 한다고 강조했다. 연준이 4.5조 달러 규모 보유자산 축소(QT)를 다음 달 시작하는 것에 대해, 연준은 이를 최대한 무미건조하고 예측 가능하게 진행하려 할 것이며 속도도 느려 성공할 가능성이 높다고 평가했다. 연준은 12월 금리인상 가능성을 시사하고 있고, 이 신호에 채권금리와 달러가 반응했다. 경제 모멘텀은 강하지 않지만 충분하다고 보며, 고용은 긍정적이나 인플레이션은 목표(2%) 밑이라 12월 인상을 대기 관망보다 권고한다고 밝혔다. 금리인상이 경기를 꺾지는 않을 것으로 봤다. S&P가 1999년 이후 처음으로 중국 신용등급을 하향했으며, 이는 부채 의존 성장모델의 한계에 대한 정치권 경고 신호라고 해석했다. 이미 Moody's가 먼저 하향해 시장에는 큰 충격이 아니었다. 국제분산투자는 과거 유망한 전략이었으나 신흥국 밸류에이션이 크게 올라 지금은 일부 현금 확보 후 더 나은 진입점을 기다리는 것이 합리적이라고 조언했다. 미국 증시는 대선 이후 20% 이상 상승했고 PER은 약 18배다. 상승은 이해되지만 결국 세제개혁, 인프라 투자, 규제완화를 실행할 의회·행정부의 역량이라는 정치적 판단에 달려 있다고 봤다. 달러는 올해 약세였고 약달러는 기업 수출 경쟁력과 증시에 긍정적이었다. 다만 강한 유로 등 강세 통화를 전 세계 경제가 수용하지 못하는 구조적 문제를 우려했다.
다듬은 글
joining us right now is a Leon's chief economic adviser Mohamed el-erian Mohamed it's good to see you thanks so much for joining us this morning Thank You Maria so what do you think about this latest effort to repeal Obamacare if it fails next week in the Senate how will that weigh on markets what's your take in terms of this policy coming out of Washington and how it impacts stocks I think we're that the markets are less focused on health care reform and much more focus on tax reform so the question in the marketplace is will this facilitate or complicate tax reform and that's a really uncertain question and people are just waiting to get indications out of Washington yeah I know and and the tax package you would think would move the needle on economic growth right mohamed and yet right now the triggers or the catalyst for this market have been just a fundamental backdrop that seems to have improved quite a bit yeah it's been three triggers one as you say the overall context of economic growth has improved mainly on account of what's happening outside the US to the Fed the markets are very comfortable that the Fed and other central banks will continue to be supportive three there's a lot of cash sitting on balance sheets of companies and that gets put back into the marketplace so those three things have been pushing stocks higher and higher and the hope is you're gonna validate asset prices by improving US fundamentals meanwhile let me ask you about the Fed Muhammad the Federal Reserve obviously announced yesterday it's going to start reducing that massive four and a half trillion dollar portfolio of bonds and securities or next month that's a decade after the biggest financial crisis in generations chairwoman Janet Yellen called the move a vote of confidence in the economy here's what she said yesterday basically that look the economy is doing well and we should start doing this but this is something we haven't seen before Muhammad just winding down a four and a half trillion dollars portfolio how easy is this going to be so the Fed intends to make it as unexcited as possible they really wanted to make it as if we are gonna watch dry dull predictable that's how they want to make it and I think they're gonna succeed because they're gonna go so slow more interesting Maria is that the Fed is continues the signal higher interest rates than what's priced into markets and we saw some reaction yesterday bond yields have gone up the dollar has strengthened as markets are starting to realize that the Fed still has a December rate hike on its radar screen yeah and I think that sync signal that yesterday is that the right course Mohamed another interest rate hike in December because I just mentioned I know things have gotten better but sometimes it's two steps forward one step back I mean does higher rates crash or slow down an economy that is just beginning to gain traction I don't think they crash the economy I also don't think they slowed the economy why I think that there is momentum in this economy not great momentum but strong enough momentum there's potential upside if we get tax reform done so when the Fed looks at its two mandates it gets a green light from the employment mandate it gets a flashing yellow light from inflation because it believes inflation is too low well below its target of two percent but it also has to think about financial stability so when I put these three things together I would urge a weight hike in December as opposed to a wait-and-see attitude all right meanwhile look around the world for us mohamed S&P today cutting its credit rating for china first time they're cutting the credit rating since 1999 they're talking about risks from the soaring debt the country faces this is the second downgrade by a major ratings company this year what's your take on the move and would you be putting money today in emerging markets including china europe look around the world for us so first the china downgrade shouldn't come as a great surprise to markets why because like you said Moody's moved earlier a few months ago and everybody was expecting S&P to follow but it is a signal to the Chinese politicians ahead of a very important gathering that they have to take seriously their growth model that can no longer depend on credit and debt to power this economy forward so it's a very strong message within China not a great surprise to markets as opposed to what investors should do a few weeks and months ago I was on your show and I kept on saying the key thing is to get exposure elsewhere internationally and that has been the white call now unfortunately it's not as easy a call because emerging markets have done extremely well I think right now one has to look at these valuations and start thinking maybe at this point I should take some cash off the market not a lot of cash but some cash off and wait for a better entry point yeah it's interesting how well the international markets have done do you feel that way in the US as well mohamed we know this market is up better than 20% since the election valuations around 18 times earnings would you buy US stocks today depends what my starting point is but but I join the many professionals who look at this market and say we understand why it has done so well and it's great that so many people have benefited but at some point you've got a validate these asset prices through better fundamentals and ultimately it goes back to what we started on it's a political call it's about the ability of Congress and the administration to get tax reform done to step up infrastructure and to continue on deregulation yeah we're all watching that for sure and real quick on the dollar Mohamed you mentioned earlier the dollar has begun to rise again it's obviously had a tough year the euro was soaring earlier in the year what's your take on the dollar and the continued sustained strength here so ironically the tough year for the dollar which means the weaker dollar has been good for the economy and good for the stock market why because companies earn from selling abroad and the weaker the dollar the more competitive they are having said that my major concern is that the system as a whole doesn't accommodate a strong currency so for Europe it's not great news that the Euro has been strengthened it's like a hot potato no one wants a stronger currency so one has to keep an eye not on the US the u.s.
is fine but on how you add up a global economy that not strong enough to support a very appreciated currency yeah that makes a lot of sense Mohammed it's always a pleasure to see you sir thanks so much Thank You Maria Mohamed el-erian joining us there
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