저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2022년 3월 기준 금리가 크게 오를 것이라 보며 모기지·국채금리 상승을 전망. 금리 충격으로 부동산 가격 하락 가능성을 언급하고, 이 시점에 리노베이션·신축 계약·ADU 건축·포인트 매입은 비효율적이라 주장. 원자재·인건비 급등과 주식시장 기회비용도 근거로 제시. 신디케이션 상품에 대한 비판 포함.
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okay listen y'all real estate fan folks i'm about to say four blunt things that need to be heard in the real estate community there are four things that you need to stop freaking doing in real estate here in q1 2022 why because interest rates are going to the freaking moon they're not going to stop anytime soon i believe the 10-year treasury yield which is closely correlated to 30-year mortgage rates and of course 15-year mortgage rates down the line arms whatever are going to go over 3 and when they go over three percent we are going to see five and a quarter percent mortgage rates when the fed goes too far we will see periods of panic where the 10-year treasury yield actually goes above three percent three and a half percent is possible that could lead to mortgage rates of five and a half five point three quarters six percent we have not seen mortgage rates like that uh quite frankly in decades i mean certainly not while i've been in the business i've started in the business in oh nine yeah we have not seen rates like this okay so look there are four things in the real estate industry that you have got to stop doing and i'll even throw in a bonus fifth one but first this video is brought to you by public go to medkevin.com public to learn more and get because after all come better investors in the or you get all the tools and information that you need but public also makes stock investing social you can see what stocks people are following on public and even find me on public if you go to medkin.com public public puts investors first doesn't sell their information or trades to market makers and does not take money for payment for order flow and of course stock trades are commission free they of course also offer 29 crypto currencies so make sure you go to medcavon.com public so you can receive a free slice of a stock value between three dollars and up to one thousand dollars kevin.com public number one this is not the time for renovations i'm serious i am getting so many people who feel freaking rich because the real estate market is hot right now and prices are very very high right now that they're asking me kevin kevin i can refinance and with that money i could remodel my home i could get a heloc come on man i want to build a deck i got asked this morning by a course member which by the way we got a coupon code expiring in three days for any of the courses either real estate sales real estate investing do-it-yourself property management rental renovations or of course the other programs like stocks and building your wealth i got this kevin you know i haven't gone through all the lectures yet but i should build a deck right now because i could get a heloc and i could get so much money come on i could get a nice trex deck you know one one they say won't warp in the sun resistant to termites and rot come on man i gotta get myself a dick no what are you doing you're throwing money out of the goddamn window listen look at the stock market right now if you are a real estate investor you should always have your eyes on the stock market because when there's an opportunity in the stock market and you're below those 50 30 20 fibonacci lines those are the perfect numbers okay i'm simplifying because y'all real estate folks you probably don't even like fibonaccis okay no nobody cares about fibonaccis and real estate okay stocks is lower than they have been okay simple when stocks is lower you don't go spend money on a damn deck because here's what you're doing when you're renovating right now let me show you okay and listen i i've licensed contracting staff we do renovations all the time i will never stop doing renovations i love buying fixer-upper real estate and fixing it up okay i love that but listen if you're trying to remodel a stupid home right now this is what you're doing you are number one losing money due to massive opportunity cost in the stock market or not just stocks but also because we're going to have this rate shock you're losing a real estate opportunity so for all those of you like i don't do stocks anyway through stocks that's just paper that's not a real asset well that's stupid because your dumb deed for your real estate is also just paper but i guess we won't go there so anyway you are losing money in both a stock market opportunity and a potential future real estate opportunity in the event we have a real estate shock which i think is quite likely by the third and fourth quarter of 2022 and all of a sudden you have cnbc and tucker carlson and all the financial news media going oh my gosh real estate prices are down compared to january what come on man purchasing power goes down as rate goes rates go up this is this is simple okay so why would you take that money and spend it on a stupid deck or some dumb freaking renovation for your own home it's stupid it's very stupid don't do it listen we almost personal okay personal personal person person we don't need it i don't want to buy a home for myself right now but a home came up that we were looking at like oh we could use this for like studio space or whatever or we could move into it because it has a nice backyard for the kids we don't it came up for lease which i hate leasing but it's got a very nice backyard and there are only like five of these homes in the neighborhood so we're like okay maybe maybe we just lease that and then we'll use the home that we own in the neighborhood as a studio in addition to the second home that we own in the neighborhood which is also used for studio and work purposes so we own two homes that we already use for work and we can just move the family into the one with the backyard right and we're thinking to ourselves well wait a minute we'd want to update some of things in the property before living in and i'm like no way jose am i spending a dime in this market renovating anything for my own benefit i'll fix it up for a tenant i'll fix it up rental grade but i am not wasting that money that could be invested in the stock market or potential future real estate opportunities i'm fixing crap up right now for myself uh-uh no no no no no no big mistake second problem let's be real have you heard of commodity price inflation commodities are going or i've gone to the freaking moon this is this look we don't even have to be technical about this it's just it's just obvious copper is way up sheet metal is way up the lumber costs the lbs google it okay lbs lumber prices you slap that thing into google here i'll pull it up for us i don't even have to wait for it to load because i know it's going to be a poop show okay we're going to go ahead and pull it up on this little computer over here and then we're going to go ahead and pull up the one-year chart and then we'll look at the five-year chart together and you tell me you want to spend money on lumber right now okay you tell me if you want to be buying here or here okay it's not hard go to the five-year you really want to be buying lumber right now okay it's no different from oh you're not supposed to see that it's no different from what the doomberg terminal says about commodities i look at copper year-to-date uh it's only a five percent sheet metal 25 i don't even get me started on nickel up 51 year uh to date if we go year over year i'll try it i'll change it to the one year now copper starts getting a little uglier 15 percent nickel up 92 percent aluminum up 52 come on why would you be spending the money in this market with these kinds of commodity prices it's astonishing it's stupid but it's not just the commodity prices that are insane right now it's the labor prices that are insane for construction right now but not only is it the opportunity cost of commodity prices and the labor costs it is also the fact that most contractors the good contractors are so booked up that what are they doing because they're so booked up because all the people who don't understand what investing is or spending their money renovating their homes you're paying massive fat premiums right now it's stupid you are wasting your money to renovate your home right now it is a terrible terrible time to do this wait a year maybe when the economy is a little bit more depressed or the next time a recession comes around you think you're going to get good deals on construction when there's a recession let me like seriously think about that if we are in a recession and you call up a contractor go hey you know i'm looking to do a deck but please i'll be there in five minutes right now it's like hey i'm looking at a deck yeah yeah i'll schedule you in two weeks just to come take a look at the project and maybe we'll build it out in six months so we'll put you down on the list and we're gonna charge you a fat premium too come on man when you want to be buying it's stupid for what a deck get it it's ridiculous renovations ridiculous second problem new construction come on man you know you're not getting new construction at a discount now look i don't want to hear all the people i know you're thinking it you're like oh i bought i signed a deposit for new construction and the price went up well no freaking duh the real estate market has only been going straight up one of the cool things about new construction is you have a free option on real estate okay that doesn't mean you made a good deal it means you got a free option on real estate you know the stock market options cost money but here's what happens when the real estate market is doing this and you sign a contract an option to buy new construction and it goes from here to here duh everybody made money but you still paid market value honestly you probably paid a little bit above market value because that's what happens with new construction you tend to pay a little bit above market value you're paying a little bit more than the neighborhood's actually going for because it's no like it's somewhat like a new car okay so instead of buying new construction you should be insulating yourself right now you should be trying to purposefully find fixer-uppers now wait a minute kevin you just said not to do renovations oh my god well this is really where we need to take another shot of whiskey i mean my first shot of whiskey because clearly if that's your reaction you're missing the boat okay look building a deck for yourself is an expensive endeavor me replacing carpet for fifteen hundred bucks me painting the interior over thirteen hundred square foot property and scraping the ceiling for five thousand dollars me painting the cabinets of my kitchen on a weekend myself for 500 bucks or less in materials with handles we'll call it with material fine with handles and materials that that is an investment that is called making money i don't care if i'm paying 10 percent more on a 40 000 renovation for a rental okay so what it cost me 44 grand if i'm getting a wedge deal if i'm getting a below market cosmetic fixer-upper i'm still getting a good deal if you still don't know what a wedge deal is you've got to check out thoskay listen you buy a rental property you do rental grade i don't want to hear that your 499 stove is now 580 but if you're trying to buy a 5 000 stove you've lost your damn marbles right now this is not the market to do that in no no no no stop it don't build a pool don't build a deck stop buying expensive garbage get invested in the stock market or prepare for deals in the real estate market and they will not last long i do not see a 2008 style recession coming it would be a very short window if at all but i'd rather you find a good deal anyway then waste your money on this kind of garbage so it's stupid it's just this is just dumb okay next this is not the time for all the aforementioned reasons to build an adu i don't care that you think your passive incomes are going to go up there's no passive income passive income is garbage passive income is either active income that you think is passive income it's you dealing with a tenant or whatever all the other garbage or it's extra cash flow that you get that makes you feel rich so you go out for an extra dinner a week and then you're left with no actual passive net income because you spent it all okay you should be focused on wealth building the last thing i would recommend for wealth building right now is building adus for all the aforementioned region their reasons contractors commodities okay next there are a lot of people who are pissed because interest rates just went up terrible a lot i'll pull up my favorite tool it's called the zillow mortgage calculator not that big of a deal zillow mortgage calculator okay just take a look at the two-year chart once it pops up for mortgage rates here you go you notice this is not actually two years right this is actually more like four to five months that's a poop show you went from 2.8 to 4.3 that means if you try to go refinance uh you know a 500 000 home right now you're probably getting quoted 4.75 and you're like what other people were just getting three and a half for three and a quarter or 2.8 why am i getting quoted 4.75 or 4.5 or four and a quarter you know what i'll pay points to buy down the rate oh gosh more people who have not taken the course on real estate investing whatever oh but you could just google this stuff why would you have to take a course oh wait because you can't google the stuff because you won't google this stuff because you don't even know what to look for you don't even know that you don't even know if you're paying points you don't even know that you don't even know that it's gonna take you seven to ten years to break even on paying points for a stupid dumb loan buy down very bad idea to buy down your loan in my opinion you're probably going to refinance way before then because j pal is going to hike rates between now and 2024 and then guess what's going to happen oh crap we over tightened time to rotate down as soon as we rotate down now the expectation of no more rights rate hikes goes away which now amplifies the reduction of rates to the downside it's not just the downside of the fed but now it's the expectation that okay rate increases are done so you see a larger and more substantial drop in mortgage rates that's the time to refinance so don't pay the points now take negative points right now what does negative points mean okay so you take a five and a quarter rate and you get a free refinance basically you suck it up for two or three years and then you refinance in the future oh but what if values are lower whatever don't take a loan that you can't afford to pay but if you're complaining about a few hundred dollars here or there quite frankly per month you should not be in real estate if you're complaining about a few hundred dollars of cash flow or not cash flow per month you should not be in real estate it's kind of like the people who are like oh my gosh kevin i'm i'm buying a house with five percent down and if i were to rent it out today i won't because i got to live there for a year but if i were to rent it out for a year uh or you know once once uh once i lived there for a year you know i'd have a negative cash flow of 200 a month oh my gosh two thousand four hundred dollars a year is what it's gonna cost you you mean less than your principal pay down as well it's gonna cost you to own this property and you tell me you can't save an extra two thousand four dollars a year don't get into real estate then it's not endorsing negative cash flows you have a portfolio of negative cash flows you're gonna go bankrupt you don't want more than one or two of those negative cash flowing properties but over time the goal is that you raise uh rental rates and uh you catch up to market and uh your equity goes up value goes up over time and then you get out of those negative cash flows in those situations where you're especially where you're putting down less than 25 percent when you put down 25 now in like california you're gonna be negative cash flow it's gonna be the same story uh you're gonna have to put down like 35 percent to be breakeven but listen stay away from these big four mistakes renovations overpaying for due construction building adus paying points and number five as a bonus one because they promised you a bonus one and stay away from syndications because they rip off that's all i got talked about the ripoff before delaying a fees until the end the massive waterfalls the uh advertising pitch of oh yeah well only by value-add and then they never add value they just ride the wave and profit off your own equity it's bull crap
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