저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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제이미 다이먼은 미국의 7%대 재정적자(GDP 대비)와 35조 달러 규모 국가부채가 장기적으로 인플레이션과 금융위기를 부를 수 있다고 경고한다. 부채/GDP 비율 123%는 1970~80년대 대비 3배 이상 높고 장기평균 65.7%를 크게 웃돈다. 이자지출이 국방·메디케어보다 커질 것으로 전망되며, 조기 재정 조정(위원회 설치 등)이 시장 충격 후 강제 조정보다 낫다고 주장한다. 다만 영상은 예측 대상 자산에 대한 가격 방향 발언은 거의 없다.
다듬은 글
what you should worry about is the deficit today is 7% of GDP when vulker was around and we had very high inflation was 3 and a half% the debt to GDP is 35% back then 1982 it's 100% Today the deficit say the biggest peacetime deficit we ever ran deficits by their nature are inflationary uh and you know one point we have to deal with this billionaire Jamie Diamond is observing some distressing signs in the US economy in a recent interview with Bloomberg Diamond warned about $ 35 trillion storm that is brewing in the US economy this problem is Generations in the making but until recently had been flying under the radar however now it has simply gotten too big to ignore you need to be paying attention to this because the consequences of this storm finally making landfall have the potential to be devastating Jamie Diamond's position as CEO of JP Morgan Chase the largest bank in the United States gives some unparalleled insights into the US economy and it's safe to say he is worried about what he is seeing listen to what he has to say I'm not going to worry about that I think what you should worry about is the deficit today is 7% of GDP when vulker was around and we had very high inflation was 3 and half% the debt to GDP is 35% back then 1982 it's 100% Today the deficit say the biggest peacetime deficit we ever ran deficits by their nature are inflationary uh and you know one point we have to deal with this I mean I would beg the government to set up a a a powerful Simpson balls type of committee authorized by the Congress up or down vote it's the probably the only way to do it the other way to do is wait until there's some kind of disaster in the market and then then you're kind of forced to do at the wrong time and I don't know when that might be I I will Happ next year probably not but you know we can America afford 120% de of GDP probably but should we wait for that hockey stick to start I don't think so I think it's just a bad way to run risk a budget deficit occurs in a country when a federal government spending exceeds its revenues while deficits can drive growth in the economy create jobs and lessen the impact of recessions they can also increase debt and worsen inflation when a deficit gets too large it can create a downward spiral of a declining economy in sky-high inflation a combination that has pushed countries into having to make some very tough and unpopular decisions in extreme cases even sending countries into bankruptcy diamond is worried that the United States is on the brink of hitting the point of no return the US has been running a deficit every year since 2001 and the fiscal deficit has topped a whopping $1.8 trillion so far in 2024 this is the highest deficit ever besides when the economy was shut down during 2020 and 2021 when the government had to take drastic actions to stimulate the economy including sending stimulus trcks to households and implementing trillion dollar relief programs in response to a severe economic shock on the surface the US economy is incredibly strong gross domestic product or GDP for short is a measure of the size and health of the economy as you can see here GDP continues to grow at a healthy and steady rate Additionally the current unemployment rate of 4.1% continues to sit well below the long-term average of around 6% household wealth is at an all-time high and the stock market and home values continue to soar all of these numbers would seemingly point to a strong and vibrant economy however according to Diamond looming in the distance is a terrifying and ever growing storm that may soon be too big for the US to Vanquish that is the massive US Federal deficit the deficit has continued to pile up despite government reassurances stating the opposite in fact the debt held by the US is growing faster than the economy or GDP and there aren't signs of it slowing down anytime soon take a look at this chart the federal debt relative to the size of the economy held by the US is projected to continue growing and be higher than it was even during World War II the financial crisis and the Public Health crisis in 2020 if this pace of spending continues it's possible that other lenders will notice that America is not paying down its debt these lenders could start demanding higher interest rates leading to a collapse in the value of existing bonds and triggering a financial crisis this crisis would be even worse than usual though as the government would not have the ability to take even more debt to bail out the country like it has previously naturally all of this has left Jamie Diamond worrying that the US government could reach a point where it is unable to repay its debt if the deficit doesn't start to get under control if that happened it would have disastrous consequences for the US economy the US federal government is projected to spend more on interest than everything it spends on defense or Medicare in 2024 by around 2050 interest is projected to be the single largest fed federal government program this means that even if the country is able to get the deficit under control America's total debt will continue to rise like a person that has gotten into too much credit card debt highin payments start to add onto the balance owed creating a snowball that builds up over time until it is simply unbearable a good measure to determine How likely a country is able to repay its debt is the debt to GDP ratio the higher the debt to GDP ratio means that a country's government will likely have more difficulty paying back its debt this increases the risk of default which could cause Financial panic in both domestic and international markets now the ratio itself is very simple first you take a country's total public debt and put that number in the numerator of the equation as of the making of this video the total public debt in the United States stands at a whopping $ 35.7 trillion next you take that same country's GDP and put that in the denominator of the equation as of the making of this video the GDP of the United States is $ 29.02 trillion now dividing 35.7 trillion by 29.02 trillion gets you a debt to GDP ratio of 123% now is this a good or bad debt to GDP ratio well you are about to be in for quite the surprise when you see a chart of the debt to GDP ratio dating Back to Before 1970 at 123% the debt to GDP ratio is at one of highest levels ever in fact as Jamie Diamond pointed out the debt to GDP ratio is over three times higher than it was in the late 1970s and 1980s and even higher than the long-term average of 65.7% from 1940 to 2023 so what does this mean for the US economy well as Diamond noted the effects may not be immediate the economy can survive on this large of a deficit so long as there is money to borrow but the further We Kick the Can down the road the worse it is going to be for America listen to this quote from diamond in a separate interview he did with Sky News at one point it will cause a problem and why should you wait the problem will be caused by the market and then you will be forced to deal with it and probably in a far more uncomfortable way than if you dealt with it to start so how do we get the deficit under control well there are currently three accepted options for lowering the fiscal deficit the first is to take name inflation while inflation has come down significantly from its peak diamond is still worried that we are entering a long-term period of structurally higher inflation listen to him explain you know you said that there are a lot of inflationary things that are coming down the pike do you think that it was a mistake for the FED to cut by 50 basis points no actually I mean you got to separate the Here and Now inflation has definitely been coming down uh you know they don't want to go into recession unemployment has been going up they raised R they were raising rates but they rais it very high rapidly to 5% I think is the right thing and they're right to take their foot off the guess in that one I don't think it matters that much 50 25 honestly but I think that was okay if inflation comes back I'm looking at Future things the REM militar the world's inflationary the fiscal deficits are of the world particularly United States are inflationary the green economy is inflationary demographics are inflationary uh it's very possible Energy prices down the road I'm talking about two three years be inflationary will hit later they should react at that time to those things but they I don't think you can anticipate that we don't know that that's going to happen as diam noted in the interview deficits are inflationary by Nature this is due to the laws of supply and demand now let me explain this concept using a basic supply and demand graph right here we have the demand line this line represents the demand for a particular good or service and here we have the supply line the supply line represents the number of goods or service services available to be purchased at any given time the point of which our two lines here cross represents the price for that good or service you see when the government spends a lot of money on projects and creates a deficit the demand for those goods and services increases as the deficit continues to increase there is also an increase in demand illustrated by our demand line here getting pushed to the right notice how now the two lines cross at a much higher price point as we can see the ship ing supply and demand Dynamics has generally caused prices for goods and services to Skyrocket this of course is a simplified explanation of how inflation works but it conveys the important message inflation happens when there is too much demand for a good or service relative to the supply available in the market the good news is that the Federal Reserve is already taking steps to tame inflation however this process can take years and it will not happen overnight only time will tell if taking down inflation will have an impact on the massive deficit the US is running the second option for lowering the fiscal deficit is for the government to decrease government spending now this may sound pretty obvious but it's actually a lot harder to do in practice the government often struggles to significantly decrease spending because many programs are politically sensitive meaning cutting them can lead to intense public backlash additionally reducing spending can have negative economic impacts potentially leading to job losses and an economic slowdown additionally a large portion of government spending is considered mandatory like Social Security and Medicare so it's difficult to cut those without major policy changes though reducing expenditures may not be easy to do in practice there is one other option to consider this option is on the other side of the deficit equation the third option for lowering the fiscal deficit is for the government to raise taxes on individuals this is obviously not a popular choice for many reasons to begin with raising taxes on citizens is a slow process in the US Congress must agree on a tax law which then must be implemented now if you have been paying attention to us politics at all over the past few years that's nearly impossible to do further politicians are generally very reluctant to increase taxes as it's typically unpopular citizens and with us lose them votes so it doesn't seem like the deficit problem will be solved anytime soon but Jamie Diamond's dire warning is clear the sooner we do not solve this the worse off we will be as a country if we want to have a strong economic future we need to make sure politicians focus on this if you made it this far in the video it is obvious you are serious about learning what's happening in the economy so make sure to check out this video here because legendary investor Warren Buffett talks about the trillion dollar storm brewing in the real estate market I will see you over there
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