저자: 제이비 · 한국인
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전일 시장 요약 및 회원 대상 채권 경매 관전 권유. 빌 그로스의 국채 고평가 발언으로 채권 약세 출발 후 무역수지 발표로 회복, 이후 재하락. 사우디 원유 가격 조정 의지 표명으로 유가 상승. 3년물 경매는 응찰률 등 수치상 잘 소화됐으나 주가·채권에 영향 미미. 은행 섹터는 BTFP 종료 예정 발언으로 약세. 금일 3시 10년물 경매 결과 예측을 회원 게시판으로 공유할 예정. 채권 경매 결과와 채권 가격은 상관관계가 낮다고 강조.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello. Membership members Darin, Gajang, and Kim Myeong-su sent us valuable Super Thanks donations, and I am truly grateful. Actually, I should have mentioned this in yesterday's video, but I forgot, so I am telling you now, even if it is just today. Anyway, congratulations to everyone on making a profit, and I will do my best to continue providing you with a lot of help in the future.
Now, before I explain yesterday's market conditions, I would like to start by giving you just one request today. It is nothing else. On days when there are bond auctions, I deliver intraday market updates through membership-exclusive videos or the community board, stating my opinion on the bond auction at 3 AM today—whether I think the market will absorb it well or if it might not be good.
And while it feels a bit awkward to say this myself, in most cases, I have been right about the bond auction results. Of course, it’s not a 100% success rate, but it has been over a year since I started running this membership, and I think the instances where my prediction was wrong can be counted on one hand.
Because of this, there are occasionally people who take long or short positions on bonds. I If you think the auction results are going to be bad, you buy a short bond (TMV). And if I say the auction will end well, you take a long bond position (in which case it would be the TMF). Anyway, there are people who day trade like this.
Of course, it is your choice and freedom to use my opinion as a standard and apply it to your trading. There are likely people who have actually made quite a bit of money, or there may be those who lost money because they day traded only when my prediction happened to be wrong. However, in my view, this is one of the considerably risky trading methods.
First of all, relying 100% on the opinion of a single individual like me is a bit unsettling. And crucially, bond auction results do not necessarily correlate with bond prices. Of course, they usually do; if the auction results are good, the TMF rises, and if the results are bad, the TMF falls— in most cases.
But there are quite a few instances where that is not the case. Yesterday was one such instance. Since the 3-year bond auction was scheduled for 3 AM yesterday, I shared my thoughts on it in a membership-exclusive video. While explaining various situations, I predicted that today's auction results would turn out well.
It was the same, and the results actually turned out well. The 3 AM auction results were so good that you could almost describe it as a huge hit. However, the TMF actually ended with a decline. As you can see, please keep in mind that bond auction results do not necessarily correlate with the bond price on that day, and I hope you will do so even if you are engaging in directional trading.
Now, let's talk right away about yesterday's market conditions. There was n't much special news yesterday. The Nasdaq closed flat, and bonds ended with a slight decline. First of all, bonds showed weakness from the start. The reason for this is that Bill Gross, known as the former "Bond King," posted on his personal account stating that New Year's Treasury bonds are overvalued and expensive.
He even added that he does not buy bonds. For reference, Bill Gross had been telling people to buy bonds since the end of last year when the 10-year yield hit 4.7%. After that, the 10-year yield peaked at 5% in November and fell rapidly, eventually dropping to 3.8% by the end of the year. Bill Gross, who had invested in bonds, made a huge amount of money at that time.
He likely made a profit. Since he is someone who has historically been accurate in predicting the direction of the bond market, his remarks had some influence on the market. Consequently, the bond market opened in a negative atmosphere. However, when the trade balance was announced at 10:30, the bond market recovered to near-flat levels.
This happened because the U.S. trade deficit was smaller than expected and lower than last month's figures. There are quite a few people who think, "Isn't a shrinking trade deficit a good thing?" But the case of the U.S. is different. Because the U.S. is a key currency nation and the world's largest consumer, it is beneficial—in fact, it must—to see a trade deficit.
Of course, it would be problematic if they could only see deficits without any surplus, but it is better to maintain a trade deficit at a reasonable level. A trade deficit ultimately implies that U.S. dollars are circulating well overseas, and that is necessary for the U.S. to be effectively utilized as a key currency.
And as I mentioned, since the U.S. is a consumption-driven nation, a shrinking deficit means they are unable to purchase goods from other countries as effectively, which signifies an economic slowdown. There can be signals. That is why, after the indicators were released yesterday, bonds recovered quite a bit for a while.
However, as time went on, bond prices started falling again. It appears that bonds failed to gain momentum, likely due to the significant resistance caused by the surge in international holidays yesterday. The reason for the surge in oil prices is that, firstly, the Houthi rebels in the Red Sea have not yet been definitively dealt with.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia issued an official statement yesterday stating that it would continue efforts to strengthen the stability and balance of the crude oil market. In fact, the reason oil prices plummeted the previous day was because Saudi Arabia's flagship company, Aramco, decided to sell crude oil at significantly lower prices.
Since such an announcement was made, sentiment spread in the market that Saudi Arabia was giving up on price adjustments and acting recklessly. However, you can view this as an expression of their determination to continue working to adjust prices, while calming down those concerns to some extent. Yes, and the market absorbed the 3-year bond auction held at 3 AM very well.
They absorbed it exceptionally well. The bid-to-cover ratio was higher than last time, and overseas demand was also significantly higher than before. It rose by 10% to 133%, and was absorbed well. However, it failed to impact the stock and bond markets. First, although the 3-year bond is classified as a medium-term instrument, it is effectively a short-term one, so it seems the market largely did not regard it as significant.
Also, with the CPI announcement coming up soon and long- term Treasury auctions scheduled, it appears the market did not show much movement yesterday as investors were waiting to observe trends regarding these events before making a judgment. Furthermore, the banking sector ended poorly yesterday. The reason for this is that Federal Reserve Vice President Michael Barr stated there is a high probability that the Banking Term Funding Program (BTF) will be terminated as planned on March 11 of this year.
For those who may not be familiar, this BTF was the program that severely shook banks last March when Silicon Valley banks went bankrupt and bank runs occurred in other regions. The reason banks went bankrupt and faltered at that time was that bond yields skyrocketed, causing significant losses on the bonds held by banks.
Seeing this, the market reacted by saying, "Oh, that bank is currently suffering from bond valuation losses..." It was because a sense of unease spread rapidly, stemming from the feeling that the banks were so large they didn't seem to have much money. Since a domino effect could trigger a second Lehman Brothers crisis and trigger a global financial crisis, the U.S.
government provided banks with a massive benefit called the BTF (Banking Institutional Funding) program as a preventative measure. The agreement was to provide loans at face value if banks pledged their bonds as collateral. They disregarded the immediate rise in bond yields and the sharp drop in bond prices, accepting the collateral at the original purchase price and granting loans.
By doing so, they were able to quell the anxiety of those who had deposited money and prevent a large-scale bank run. However, you can't keep plugging things with money like this forever, can you? So, when they announced that the BTF would end this March, anxiety about banks spread slightly again in the market, causing the banking sector to decline.
That pretty much covers the market situation yesterday. Also, a very important 10-year Treasury bond auction is scheduled for 3 AM tomorrow. It is scheduled. Since it is a 10-year bond, it is an auction that the market will be watching very closely. Once the US market opens today, I will assess the situation and share my predictions for the auction results via the real-time membership board. See you in the next video. Thank you.
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