저자: 제이비 · 한국인
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JB는 레버리지 ETF(LABO 등) 익절 완료와 BNKU 보유 수익을 언급하며, DGRW 매수 및 장기 보유 가능성을 밝힘. FOMC 결과를 비둘기파로 해석하며 파월이 금리 인상 가능성을 거의 닫았다고 평가. 인플레이션 둔화와 채권 강세가 계속되고 소형주·은행주 등 덜 오른 섹터에 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. 빅테크는 비싸다고 언급.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello, this is JB. Membership member 'so' has sent us a valuable Super Thanks donation, and we are truly grateful. We will do our best to ensure you continue to receive much help in the future. Also, as I mentioned on the live membership community board last night, we have completed taking profits on all our Labo positions.
Although Labo gave us a bit of a hard time over the past few weeks, we held on well until the end, and we were finally able to wrap things up happily with a profit like this. Labo seems to be a stock that has frequently given us good returns this year, just like BNKU. Looking at the live community board yesterday, it seemed like many of you also made good profits with Labo.
Congratulations to everyone! Also, yesterday, I entered into buying the monthly dividend ETF in DGRW. I entered before the FOMC meeting, and I am currently seeing a profit immediately after purchasing. Just in case there are people who are unfamiliar with DGRW, let me briefly explain. You all know the stocks in SCHD, right?
You can think of it as Apple and Microsoft added to those familiar SCHD stocks. In particular, the weighting of Microsoft is higher than that of Apple. Let me say a few words regarding this. As those who have been watching my channel since the beginning know, I have been... I have always rated Microsoft much higher than Apple, the number one company by market capitalization.
While this is purely my personal assessment, I still maintain this perspective. Anyway, I believe DGRW N is an ETF that fits my view well. Also, for those who liked SCHD but were disappointed by the complete absence of Big Tech stocks, I think DGRW N could be a good choice. I will decide whether to hold DGRW N for the long term or take profits at an appropriate time depending on how the situation unfolds.
Now, let's talk about yesterday's market conditions. First, yesterday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) brought a positive sentiment to the market as headline figures fell below expectations in all sectors—regardless of whether they were core, month-over-month, or year-over-year. As you all know by now, PPI and CPI are used as leading indicators.
This is because if the cost incurred by producers to manufacture goods is lower, the price of the final product reaching consumers can be lower, which allows us to anticipate further inflation slowdowns in the future. Therefore, upon seeing the low PPI figures, the market They cheered. "See, I told you so.
I was a little worried yesterday because the CPI came out a bit ambiguous, but it looks like there's no need to worry. Also, if the PPI comes out this low, it could influence Powell's remarks at the FOMC." It was completely positive news, which is why both the stock and bond markets were able to show a good trend.
Furthermore, after the PPI announcement, most Wall Street financial firms, including Goldman Sachs, drastically lowered their forecast for the November core PC figure by more than double, from a 0.14% increase to 0.07%. This also has significance. If it comes out like this, the core inflation growth rate will be in the 0% range.
In that case, the year-over-year growth rate could fall to 3.1%, and if converted to an annualized rate over six months, it would drop by as much as 1.9%. You can consider this figure to be lower than the Fed's target of a core PC of 2%. You can really see that inflation is falling rapidly. Anyway, amidst this positive atmosphere, we welcomed the FOMC meeting at 4 AM.
First of all, the released statement came out dovish. You can look at about three main points in the big picture. First, last The statement included the phrase that the pace of economic growth has slowed compared to the third quarter. It seems they specified this because, looking at the difference in GDP growth rates alone, it is expected to drop sharply in the fourth quarter.
They also explicitly stated that while inflation remains high compared to the target, it is slowing down. However, if you only hear up to this point, it might sound like something that was already being said, and you would n't necessarily think of it as massive good news. But the decisive phrase added to the statement is: "in determining the degree of additional policy reinforcement necessary to lower inflation by 2%." The key point here is the word "certain." In English, it was expressed as "certain," but this was not present previously.
It used to be written like this: "in determining the degree of additional policy reinforcement necessary to lower inflation by 2%." Since this is a very subtle difference in nuance, those who don't read much or aren't particularly sensitive to reading might think, "Is that really such a big difference?
Isn't it just the same thing?" But that is absolutely not the case. There is a significant difference between those two sentences. It feels like this: the word "n" is not included in the former. If the previous sentence gave the impression that we would immediately raise interest rates at any time if things went even slightly wrong in lowering inflation to 2%—implying that we were fully capable of doing so—the inclusion of the word "certain" this time has drastically changed the nuance.
The tone has shifted to a more dovish one, implying that if we absolutely must do something to lower inflation by 2%, we should raise interest rates. Therefore, you can interpret this as the central bank expressing the position that it is unlikely to consider raising interest rates under normal circumstances.
Furthermore, the dot plot has become significantly more dovish than before. However, generally, when a statement is that dovish, there is a tendency to hold a somewhat hawkish press conference to balance it out. So, the market watched Powell's press conference with a mix of anticipation and worry, wondering if it would go in that direction again.
But what a surprise! During the press conference, Powell delivered remarks that were far more dovish than the statement. To highlight a few key points from the press conference: first, reporters asked why the word "n" was included and whether it implied the end of interest rate hikes. Then, if it were the Powell we know...
He probably would have just mumbled something cliché like, " Well, that’s not necessarily the case. We’ll see the data, so the possibility of a hike remains open at any time," and evaded the issue. But what did he answer this time? He stated that he included it because he recognized the high probability that interest rates are at or near their peak.
He said that while it doesn't seem likely they will raise it further, he hasn't completely ruled out the possibility of an additional hike. He made such blatantly dovish remarks. By implying that while the probability of a hike isn't exactly 0%, it effectively seems to be over, he gave a final confirmation.
That alone was a huge hit, but what other statements followed? He mentioned that the Fed had also discussed interest rate cuts. He described it as significant progress, noting that when the inflation figures for the past six months are annualized, they show very low numbers. He also said that interest rates don't necessarily have to reach 2% to cut, but could be done before then because they do n't want to ruin the economy by doing it too late.
In short, he expressed that they are fully considering the " insurance" rate cuts I discussed in a recent video. Now, at this point, there is one concern the market has, isn't there? "Ah, Powell is saying that now, but..." There was also concern that if the stock market rose significantly, he might soon change his tune and turn hawkish, saying he would put it under control.
So, a reporter asked about this as well. When asked what he thought about the recent massive rise in the stock market, Powell replied that it is important for financial conditions to align with the Fed's goals in the long term. In short, he was saying that he doesn't really care even if the stock market rises.
With such pro-market remarks—going beyond dovish, how should I describe it? It was on the level of a crane—both stocks and bonds were able to cheer. The gains in bonds were particularly significant; small and medium-sized stocks and bank stocks rose sharply, as indicated by the Russell 2000 index. Big Tech and semiconductors did not rise as much as expected.
Given this trend, I think there won't be any fatal factors affecting the stock market until the end of the year. The only thing that bothers me is that Big Tech stocks are currently expensive; aside from that, I don't see any major negative news. That pretty much summarizes yesterday's market conditions.
I have been consistently saying for the past few weeks that inflation is being brought under control, the bond rally will continue, and we should see strong gains, focusing on sectors that haven't risen much until now. It will go up. I have always emphasized that Powell's nature is inherently dovish, and I feel relieved that things are unfolding well according to the scenario I expected.
Also, before I wrap up this video, I want to say just one thing. Please, everyone, do not leave whining comments. In a way, whining comments are even more annoying to see than ignorant malicious comments. That is why I block all comments that whine and complain whenever I see them; it really is just like that.
Your investment performance this year has been excellent. It goes without saying that you achieved massive returns of nearly 100% on TQQQ and SOXL. Besides that, you made good profits on individual stocks like Intel, Google, Qualcomm, and Verizon. You also took advantage of China several times by switching between long and short positions, and earned substantial profits on BKU and LAV4 by repeatedly buying low and selling high.
Now, did everyone who followed my lead and bought achieve such good returns? No. That is just how stocks are. It would be nice if it shot up the very next day after you bought, but generally, it often drops as soon as you buy. So, you always think, " Oh, if only I would just buy..." You know how people say things like, "It falls, and as soon as I sell, it goes back up." That is why dollar-cost averaging and mental fortitude are so important.
You should understand that if you cannot endure the downturn, you lose the right to claim the profits. Regarding BNK, which my membership members and I entered about a month ago and are now seeing an incredible return of over 60%, I cannot even count the countless whining comments people left every time it dropped further after we bought it.
It was the same with Labo. And those whining comments definitely affect others who have weak mentalities. They think, " What is this? Is my investment really going wrong? Why is everyone complaining like that? It's so scary," yet they fail to buy more when it actually comes time and end up cutting their losses instead.
Then, after some time passes and those stocks all rise and everyone is in a celebratory mood, they just leave hateful comments because they feel wronged for missing out. Everyone, please stop doing this. Of course, to protect your mental health, I will continue to quickly block any whining comments that are unpleasant to read.
Ideally, it would be best not to post such whining comments in the first place. Okay, then today. That's all for the video. I'll see you in the next one. Thank you.
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