My AMD Stock Price Prediction for 2025 | AMD Stock Prediction | AMD Stock Analysis

요약 보기

AMD는 2024년 들어 약 12% 하락하며 시장 대비 부진했다. 발표자는 2025년 말 주가를 forward PE(현재 25배 수준)가 상승할 것이라는 가정 아래 EPS 추정치(2026년 $4.46 등)와 DCF 내재가치($180)를 근거로 산정한다. PC 교체 주기, 게임 콘솔 업그레이드, AI 데이터센터 수요가 상승 요인으로 제시된다. 최종 목표 범위는 $50~$160이며 리스크는 상방에 있다고 본다. 개인 투자 참고용이라는 면책 문구를 덧붙인다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. AMD stock has disappointed stock market investors it's down 12% year-to date in 2024 when the S&P 500 Index is approaching a 30% year-to-date return a huge underperformance for a semiconductor stock when semiconductor stocks are also soaring its main rival Nvidia is absolutely exploding higher so AMD disappointing investors across all dimensions of course I'm disappointed in that here in 2024 and it's been one of my worst performing recommendations year to date but where will AMD stock be in 2025 2024 is almost over we can almost forget about that but what about where I think AMD stock lands by the end of 2025 so 'm going to need several estimates and assumptions and numbers one of which is the current share price which is down 12 % year to date the other thing I need is amd's forward price to earnings ratio which as of this recording stands at 25 this is near the lowest amd's forward PE has been going all the way back to January of 2022 and I'm going to forecast I'm going to include in my forecast in my stock price prediction that amd's forward PE ratio will rise next year and I'll share with you why I think it's going to rise so one of the other things I need to make my stock price prediction is amd's earnings per share estimate for the year 2026 and according to Wall Street analyst that are following AMD stock they think the company will deliver $446 in EPS in 2026 they also think that amd's EPS will rise from this point to $55.95 in 2027 to $930 in 2028 so Wall Street is optimistic on a amds earnings per share prospects over the next several years 2022 and 2023 were not good years for amds earnings per share as you could see just 53 cents in gap EPS in 2023 as amd's gaming and personal computer segments offset growth in its other two segments including the data center AI segment but in the back half of the decade the personal Computing side of the business is going to thrive because of the huge replacement cycle in personal computers that will need to happen those computers there was a lot of computers purchased in 2020 and 2021 they're going to need to get upgraded at some point in time between 2025 and 2028 and that's going to boost the total addressable Market opportunity in that space for AMD also it's gaming console business is struggling as the latest generation devices from Sony PlayStation are getting long in the tooth now and so towards the back end of the decade there's likely going to be an upgrade cycle on the gaming side and so that's going to drive profitability as well for AMD and of course the data center segment fueled by the investments in data centers optimized for AI AMD is already benefiting significantly from that segment so for all those reasons I think amd's forward PE multiple will begin to rise next year as it gets closer to capitalizing on those strong Tailwinds so now that we have the estimates we need let's jump into the price Target estimate for 2025 of course the current share price is $130 a share and here is the scenario I've modeled for AMD stock if you want access to these spreadsheets and also for AMD all of these spreadsheets are available to you as a Channel member at the investor tier you can have access to all of these and I update these multiple times daily I add multiple new recommendations multiple new discounted cash flow valuation models it's a really good benefit to have as a channel member so back to the valuation if the company's EPS stays on track for $446 and the forward PE stays the same at 2020 at 25 the price could end the year at $13 per share but I already talked about that I don't think that's going to happen I think the forward PE multiple is going to rise it's just a matter of how much do I think it's going to rise if it goes up to 28 the price could rise to 125 per share if it goes up to 30 the price could rise to $134 per share if it goes up to 35 then the price could rise to $156 per share okay that's an interesting observation of four different scenarios but let me as well to incorporate that into my estimate for 2025 so according to my discounted cash flow valuation analysis for AMD stock which I did on October 7th but the numbers are still incredibly relevant because these numbers don't change all that frequently and by all that large magnitude and so my latest intrinsic value calculation using this DCF for AMD found that the Stock's intrinsic value per share is $180 per share $180 per share okay so that's interesting as well let's go back to our scenarios here so given that I think the forward PE multiple is going to rise and given my DCF signals that the price is around $180 per share intrinsic value I would forecast that by the end of 2025 AMD stock price will rise to a range between $50 per share to $160 per share of course this is just my estimate and the numbers could be much higher than that they can also be much lower than that but according to my analysis and my estimates this is my target for where I think the stock price ends in 2025 so that's considerable upside from the current share price of $130 per share and I would say the risks to this estimate are to the upside and not to the downside I would estimate that the risks are to the upside of course information purposes only this should be used as education and you should do your own due diligence before making any decisions regarding any of these Investments