Should You Buy Palantir Stock Before 2025? | PLTR Stock Analysis | PLTR Stock Prediction

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팔란티어는 2024년 주가가 320% 급등했고 미국 상업 매출 성장(전분기 대비 133%)과 잉여현금흐름 확대가 뚜렷하다. 그러나 forward P/E 약 100배, DCF 내재가치 주당 약 $29(장기성장률 16% 기준)로 현재가 $72보다 높아 밸류에이션이 과도하다. 다른 방식(2026 EPS 기준 PER)에서도 2025년 목표가 $66~71로 결론이 같다. 따라서 2025년 이전 매수는 비추천하며, 주가가 크게 하락해 진입 가격이 좋아지면 의견이 바뀔 수 있다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. paler Technologies is one of the best performing stocks in the market in 2024 it's up a whopping 320% year to dat as of this recording but will it have a similar year in 2025 and should investors buy paler stock for ahead comparing it against its valuation measuring it on a forward price to earnings basis looking at my discounted cash flow valuation model for paler stock and other valuation methods to determine if palente here makes sense in terms of risk versus reward for long-term investors buying in 2025 or buying ahead of 2025 mentioned already paler stock price absolutely soaring up 320% year to date in 2024 and it's been an incredible story that stock price jumping even more after October it was already up 120% up until October and then it jumped another 200% since then and after the election of course paler stock caught yet another Tailwind jumping even higher still now one of the most attractive things about palente here for me is the company's expansion into US Enterprises us commercial Revenue grew 54% in its latest quarter and it was up 133% from the previous quarter I've been talking about palente here for several years now and how excellent it is in terms of its relationships with US Government institutions but what's been more impressive is its expansion into US Enterprises I say that it's been more impressive because that's the market it needed to crack open in order to open up a bigger opportunity there's only so M so much government institutions it can expand into right there's a limited amount of governments especially governments friendly to the United States and so if paler wanted to grow really big it needed to make progress into businesses and lately they've been demonstrating that their strategy of going into these businesses their AIP demonstrating what they can offer has opened up that market opportunity businesses previously were hesitant to hire paler because of how expensive their services are they're best in class right arguably nobody even approaches the type of AI services that paler can offer businesses but the sticking point was price can businesses afford this service and while paler went into the business and showed them what they can do that increased the budget for businesses what they're willing to pay because they're noticing what paler can offer so this is the part of palente business I'm most excited about in the future so looking over the past five years of data that we have for paler I should say closer to four years of data that we have for paler you can see growth across the various critical Financial inputs Revenue operating income and cash flow from operations Revenue has jumped up to $2.6 billion up from around $1.3 billion in 2020 meanwhile cash flow from operations has jumped to 994 million up from a negative number in 2021 on a trailing 12-month basis and a similar story with operating income which increased to 360 5 million up from a negative number in 2020 so palente here performing well across the important categories of Revenue profit and cash flow from operations looking ahead the analyst on Wall Street that are following paler stock they expect the company to continue with robust growth in free cash flow forecasting a number of 980 million in free cash flow for 2024 1.17 billion for 2025 1.55 billion for 2026 2 billion for 2027 and 2.8 billion in 2028 so significant increases almost tripling in free cash flow from 2024 to 2028 is expected for paler Technologies over the next several years looking at paler valuation over the last 3 years 0 5 2.44 that's really expensive that's roughly six or seven times the average stock in the S&P 500 in terms of a forward price to earnings ratio now when I paler stock that gave me an intrinsic value per share of around $29 $29 per share now that's compared to the current market price of $72 and I'm even giving pener long long-term growth rate of 16% for the year 2030 to Infiniti and so even though I'm evaluating this company's future cash flows at a growth rate of 16% it's still giving me an intrinsic value per share of just $29 however this assumption makes a big difference if instead of 16% I give it an 18% long-term growth rate that would bring the intrinsic value per share back up to $76 which would be above the current market price so these estimates and assumptions make big differences in the valuations forecasted using the discounted cash flow valuation model when I looked at paler stock using another valuation method which is looking at the earnings per share expected for the fiscal year 2026 and applying a forward PE multiple I came to a conclusion of a price Target in 2025 for paler in the range of $66 to $71 per share so while paler is an excellent business opening up a new category that can offer billions more in revenue and billions more in cash flow and operating income the valuation for paler stock is stretched and I looked at the valuation several different ways and I come to a similar conclusion regardless of the method I use to Value pal paler stock and the conclusion is that paler stock is too expensive it's already incorporating very much of those excellent prospects in the future it's already incorporating it more than incorporating it into the price today now I know this is going to be an unpopular opinion because paler is one of the most popular stocks in the market but I'm not trying to win a popularity contest I'm just trying to give you my financial analysis on a business so my analysis for palente here is that it's an excellent business with great prospects in the future for Revenue profits and cash flow however the price that the company is selling for is too rich and so my conclusion should you buy paler stock before 2025 I would say the answer is no now this might change if paler stock price were to fall significantly and you get a better entry that would change my opinion but for now at current prices I would say paler stock is not a buy before 2025