저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 매출 성장(30%)·영업이익률(14%)·ROIC(12%) 등 실적 모멘텀이 AMD보다 우위이나 주가 급등으로 포워드 PE 153배로 고평가. AMD는 PC 사이클 회복과 데이터센터 GPU 수요, 엔비디아 공급 부족 수혜로 실적이 개선될 것으로 전망되며 포워드 PE 25배·DCF상 저평가. 두 기업 모두 마진 개선 추세이나 밸류에이션 차이로 AMD를 선호. 팔란티어 DCF는 과거 시점(10/3) 기준으로 고평가 신호.
다듬은 글
AMD and paler are two AI stocks heading in opposite directions paler stock price is absolutely soaring and investor enthusiasm in this AI stock is at an all-time high AMD meanwhile is underperforming and investors are disappointed in the company's inability to make significant progress against Nvidia in the data center accelerated Computing Market but which one of these two is the better in investment at current valuations does the discount for AMD stock make it enough of a better investment compared to paler even though paler is performing so well I'll answer that question in this video I'll compare the two on revenue on profitability on return on invested capital and finally I'll compare the two on valuation both in terms of the market multiple of forward price the earnings measurement and also discounted cash flow valuations comparisons of paler and AMD yes I'll share with you my DCF valuations for paler and AMD stock in this video tha looking at Revenue growth over the recent three years you'll notice paler overtook AMD the delivering 30% Revenue growth in the most recent quarter while AMD delivered 17.6% the good news for both companies investors is that they are both increasing the rate of increase the second derivative is increasing for AMD and paler and even better news is that this is expected to continue especially for AMD AMD has trailed you can see that big drop off for AMD because of the cyclical decline in its business remember AMD operates in the personal Computing industry which faced significant challenges coming out of the pandemic people bought a lot of computers in 2020 and 2021 and then they didn't in 22 and 23 but re going to need to be updated and upgraded very soon and that's where AMD will benefit from that part of its business the other side of its business is thriving with the data center artificial intelligence it announced its new GPU for the AI market and that's going very well comparatively speaking with itself if you compare it with Nvidia you'll notice it's not doing very well but comparing to its own history it's thriving and it's difficult to compare any business with Nvidia because they will fall short in most cases Nvidia is absolutely crushing the industry delivering record performance in both revenue and profitability very difficult to compete against AMD will tell you a lot of stories about that if you ask them paler meanwhile is gaining traction with Enterprises this is what I had been waiting for with paler stock it had always done a great job with governments and government institutions what was missing was its progress with businesses and in the recent two quarters it's really accelerating the pace of development of its business business with business and that's what's really driving enthusiasm here and that's what really has me excited about paler stock now when I look at the operating profit margin over the last decade I'll notice great improvement from paler Technologies fast improvement from paler Technologies for the better part of two decades I don't even think paler cared about profitability it was focused so much on improving its product and expanding its reach and in the recent few years years it actually decided to focus on profitability and real quickly the company improved profitability it's now at a 14% operating profit margin almost three times the rate of AMD but amd's profit margins are un uncharacteristically depressed right now because of those unprecedented circumstances on its PC business coming out of the pandemic not just the PC business actually the gaming business as well Thrive during the pandemic and and now it's struggling so those parts of its business uh not the gaining business the PC business is expected to thrive in the next few years coupled with the booming demand for its data center gpus I wouldn't be surprised if its operating margins exceed that of palente tier over the next four quarters and the next 12 quarters I wouldn't be surprised if amd's profit margins uh double that of paler unless of course paler continues this in credible pace of improvement then they can be more closely matched but I suspect both of these will be trending higher towards 203 maybe even 40% no I don't think 40% 20 30% for AMD and paler realistically speaking over the next 4 to 12 quarters in profit margins return on invested Capital similar story with paler making great progress 12% return on invested capital AMD again uncharacteristically low I wouldn't be surprised if amd's roic approaches the 30% figures over the next not the four quarters but maybe over the next 8 to 12 quarters as the PC business rebounds and of course the data center business is almost a given at this point given how strong that industry is given how constrained Nvidia is Right Nvidia keeps saying that hey we're sold out we're sold out we're sold out that that means there's customers that want these accelerated gpus and Nvidia is not providing them that's an opening for AMD which is arguably you can say the second place player if you measure in terms of market share it is the second place player and so it's going to benefit from that under Supply from Nvidia Nvidia said they're going to be under supplied for at least the next four quarters and so that's an opening for AMD to enter that space and take some market share profitability looks great for both of these companies over the next four to 12 quarters if I didn't already make it clear in the previous few slides now let's talk about valuation and this is where the story changes significantly because paler stock is trading at such an expensive valuation given how much the share price has increased this year paler stock trades at a forward PE of 153 compared to AMD which trades at a forward PE of just 25 so paler is roughly six times as expensive as AMD now we saw that paler has been performing better than AMD across every category right better Revenue growth better profit margin better return on invested capital and you can argue whether or not a AMD will ever catch up when the cyclical rebound happens regardless if these two were selling at the same price palente here would be the no- break but they're not selling at the same price now let's look at the cash flow valuation of each of these so I did the Casual valuation model for AMD I did this on October 7th October 7th and when I did this I found an intrinsic value per share for AMD stock at $180 per share and the current market price is $130 per share so amv's intrinsic value is much higher than its market price which signals that it's undervalued according to this valuation method I get the opposite story for paler so I did paler stock discounted cash flow valuation model on October 3rd and I do need to update this because a lot has changed between October 3rd and December 9th when I'm recording this video but when I did my DCF for paler stock I found its intrinsic value per share at just $14 and the market price is now at $72 so my DCF for paler signals it's overvalued so when I look at paler on a forward PE basis it demonstrates to me that it's overvalued when I look at it on a DCF basis it demonstrates to me overvalued so I'm getting the same signal from two different valuation sources for paler stock the opposite for AMD I'm getting two different sources signaling to me that the shares are undervalued so my conclusion here deciding which one is the better one to buy even even though I think paler is the better company the valuation difference is too much and so if I had to pick between these two AI stocks I would pick AMD as the better AI stock to buy now
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