저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2020년 3월 연준이 사실상 무제한 양적완화를 발표한 것을 대차대조표 회계 구조로 설명. 연준이 국채·회사채·ETF·학자금대출·신용카드 채권 등을 매입해 지급보증하며, 머니마켓펀드 원금 붕괴 위험 등 패닉과 신용경색을 경고. 영상 말미에 투자 강의·증권사 쿠폰 홍보 포함. 구체적 자산 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Holy [ __ ], the Federal Reserve is now printing as much money as it wants. Forget about $200 billion in stimulus or multiple rounds of $80 billion. How about a trillion dollars? Forget about all this. The Federal Reserve is now a Robinhood user, enjoying unlimited leverage, or perhaps just unlimited ink in its printing press.
Essentially, the Federal Reserve announced today at 8:00 AM Pacific Standard Time, March 23rd, that there will be no limit to the amount of money they can print. Let 's try to explain this to understand what's really happening. When hard times come, many of us get nervous. We look at our investments, our stocks, our real estate, the money we have in the bank, as tools that help us feel more comfortable.
Sometimes we even look at our credit cards and think, “Okay, I can borrow a little there if I need to. I can borrow some there if I need to." It's not always the best scenario, but we look at these sources of potential money to feel comfortable, especially in very uncertain times, which is what we are experiencing right now.
So what if you felt uncomfortable? And I understand. Like me, that I also feel strange watching the news every day. This is a scary time. And then someone came to your door and said, “Hey, how would you like to apply for this credit card? There is no limit on this credit card. So whatever expenses you need to make, don't worry.
And if for some reason, even though I really want you to pay me back , if for some reason you can't pay off that credit card balance, don't worry. This is a non-recourse credit card . So we're not going to take your house or your family minivan. "Just get comfortable now, okay?" Well, that's essentially what the Federal Reserve has done now.
But wait a minute. Wait, where does this money come from? I mean, the money has to come from somewhere, right? Okay, let's begin. This is the Federal Reserve's balance sheet , and they don't have enough cash right now. So all we're going to do is go to this spreadsheet. Let's zoom in a little bit and just type in here, let's write, let's delete this, and type in $1 trillion .
Let's see, a million, a billion, a trillion. Okay, we're in the black. You see, most of the money the Federal Reserve prints today is n't actually printed. Most of it is simply done electronically , but they have to record it on both sides of the accounting equation, so to speak . After all, it's called balance , which means the two sides must be balanced.
You can't have balance with just one side. In any case, this is a debt book. So we'll just open it up, make a little note here, and there you go. Americans, we owe you another $1 trillion . Fed. And the Fed is now effectively allowed to do this as many times as it wants, without any restrictions. So what the heck is the Fed going to do with all this money and how will it change my life?
The Fed is essentially shopping at this nasty candy store called " health food." So they buy things like Treasury bonds. While Treasury bonds have been a favorite of the Fed lately, they are also opening their doors to money market accounts to ...So what do we have here? It looks like we have corporate bonds.
And then we have ETFs. And then, to pump more money into the world, the Fed has started doing even more creative shopping, and now they're doing, uh, student loans, and, uh, they're even starting to look into credit cards. And that's why, like you and me, we all love passive income. You know, the money you make when you do n't actually have to do anything.
You know, these dividends or receiving interest on loans. For example, receiving dividends from ETFs. Let's put it in this box. Let's say we have several ETFs. And, uh , we have some corporate bonds. You know what? This is a debt that I am sure will pay us dividends. Money market accounts, cool. We have some cash to work with, although it is not FDIC insured.
Uh, student loans, yes, they bring in a lot of interest. This is great. Credit cards, oh, they bring in good money. I like them. And, uh, we'll get some Treasury bonds. Uh, they don't really make a lot of money, but they're considered risk-free because, well, the Fed says they're risk-free, so why not?
We'll put that there too. And, uh, yeah, now we have this box that's supposed to generate passive income for us, and we're a bank. The problem is that it's just a box of promises. If people don't pay their credit cards or their student loans, or corporations don't pay, then all this box isn't worth much.
It's just a box of promissory notes. And that makes cans like this box a little unnerving. I start thinking something like, “Oh, I don’t know. Do I really want to add some chickpeas to this mixture now? You know, I know that John and Sally work with Freddie and Fannie, and they work on getting mortgages that might look a lot like this white Kit Kat.
So, even though John and Sally really want to get this mortgage now, and their real estate agent will get the money, when this loan is made, the loan officer will get the money, we will get some money, the lawyers will get the money too. A lot of people will get money when , you know, these people take out a mortgage.
But we don't know if we want to add another debt bill to our inbox right now. You know, our box is full of a lot of promises, and there are some scary things happening in the market right now. Maybe we'll just tell them we don't want to take out that mortgage anymore and return that Kit Kat. That would be really bad, would n't it?
That is, now they will not get a mortgage, many people will be left without income, and what is called a credit crunch will arise. This is when banks start to get nervous that their company or other companies are running low on cash, that they're worried that these corporations won't be able to pay, or that people won't be able to pay their credit cards.
They worry that there won’t be enough cash, so they start to step up and say, “You know what? I have enough debt receipts right now. I don't need any more promissory notes, okay? " I need more cash now, not more IOUs." And this is where the Federal Reserve comes to the rescue. You see, when banks make mortgages, they don't actually make money on the interest that John and Sally pay on that mortgage.
They are essentially taking that mortgage and putting it in a basket or mortgage tranche full of a bunch of other mortgages. You see, we have some black home loans , we have some red home loans, and we have some white home loans. And they are all collected in this collection. You see, because big institutions don't like discrimination.
They don't like to focus on just one option. They want to be able to spread the risk, so to speak, across a bunch of other mortgages. So, they bundle these things into a mortgage tranche, close it, and then create something called mortgage paper. Mortgage paper is created from this package. Essentially, the bank comes in and says, “Okay, we know someone won’t buy this whole package.
Uh, and before anyone buys it , we'll have to evaluate it. So, in this case, let's call this project AAA rated. Uh , we haven't looked inside yet, but we're sure they're good. So we'll just call them AAA. This AAA rating should really help us sell them, and then we'll just take parts of these mortgage-backed securities and try to sell them to people.
So, uh, we'll try to sell this. We'll try to sell it. Oh, and here's one. Let's take this. Okay, we're going to sell this. This is part of all this debt. And we want to sell it to get cash. Because remember, the bank issues all these mortgages, but they want fees for issuing mortgage loans. They don't really care about interest.
They want commissions. And they don't want more stuff in the box right now. They want cash to keep making money. So they go and say, “Hey, hey, hey, we have AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities. " Who needs them?" " And when other banks do it, they say, 'So far so good.'" Yes, I have enough debt receipts.
The last thing I need is a stack of your AAA- rated debt securities . You know, keep it in your box. I don't want this from your mailbox. I have enough of my own AAA-rated bonds right here. And this is where the Fed comes in. “Well bank, we'll buy your [ __ ]. You know what? Instead of just selling us your AAA-rated bonds, why don't you just give us your entire safe ?
Which is exactly what the Fed is doing right now. The Fed now said, “You know what? " Instead of just buying your AAA-rated Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, why don't we just go ahead and back your money market funds because you guys are broke." By the way, if you want to learn how to really manage your money, and not just throw away all your assets and have a garage sale on Saturday morning, you might consider investing in yourself and spending your quarantine days learning how to invest in real estate, self- manage your property, or renovate your rental property.
Hell, study the psychology of money or sales. And get to know another point of view. Use the coupon below. Be sure to simultaneously click on the WeBull link and deposit $100 into the WeBull stock trading platform as they will give you two free shares worth up to $1,400. And be sure to use this coupon, because as soon as my designer sends me new designs, we'll make some changes to the program.
I mean, I have to , because it's planned, and I said so. The price is rising. Just so you know, breaking even on a money market fund is kind of like the bank saying, “Hey, hey, you have $5,000 in your savings account. Oh, [ __ ], but we only have $4,900 to support them. So I hope you won't come asking for it." Yes, this is happening now in money market funds.
And the feds say, “Don’t worry, we’ll support you. "Everything is fine." So we're going to take your money market funds, and you know what? We will do the same with corporate bonds. And we have credit cards. We have student loans. We have ETFs. And I'm not even sure what it is, but you know what? We will support that one too .
And we are going to do it without restrictions. What I have just described for you and shown with examples is exactly what is happening in the market right now. Companies, corporations, businesses, and individuals are in desperate need of cash right now. Because of this, a lot of people are looking for help with short-term loans, uh, short-term financing on credit cards, short-term loans through refinancing, and then, oh, I'll pay it back.
I will return it. Let me just refinance my house. I need money. Everyone needs cash right now because everyone is nervous. This is what, when people are nervous, usually creates what is called panic. Panic can be a few different things. It could be a stock market panic, a bond market panic, or, what you may have heard before, a bank run.
A panic is essentially when people literally just throw away everything they have in order to be able to create cash. It's literally like taking your box of IOUs as a bank and saying, "Oh, crap. Nobody wants to buy this crap. Let's just sell it at a loss." This kind of panic is why we're seeing massive stock market crashes at the same time as strange things that rarely happen, where things like bond ETFs are sold for less than their value.
Money market accounts, which are supposed to be truly safe, are being sold at a price lower than their value. And we are in such a state of uncertainty that if credit markets freeze, the entire economy could lose more money than it already has. This is really, really bad. And part of the reason for that is that there is so much uncertainty.
When people are insecure, they turn to cash. When senators are uncertain and hear about the uncertainty weeks before the rest of us, they sell all their stocks at a profit of millions of dollars and move to cash. And that's why the Federal Reserve comes in and says, "Don't be afraid. We will protect everything." In fact, the Minister of Finance is now even thinking about offering options and loans, which makes perfect sense.
I understand. But for small businesses, it's essentially saying, "Hey, here you go. We are going to give you loans." And this is part of the stimulus that is still being discussed. “We will provide you with loans so you can continue to pay your employees . And if you can't get them back, don't worry." And the Fed is effectively insuring all of this by saying, “No problem.
We will take away all these loans. Without the right of recourse. Can't get your minivan and your house if you don't give it back to us? No problem. No problem. "Give it all to us." You know what? We decided we wanted the biggest box of debt in history. Because we could just keep creating more and more money.
And if suddenly that trillion dollars is no longer enough, they can just jump in and say, "Let's do it with two." Okay, it's turning orange. Let's just quickly update our other side of the balance sheet. Okay, we owe you another trillion dollars. Okay, but still yellowish- orange. I would really like it to be green.
Let's just...You know what? We have endless money right now, so let's just do it with $10 trillion in stimulus. Enter. Hey, we're green. Good. $10 trillion plus. Okay, who wants to go to lunch? Although this is a significant simplification of how the Federal Reserve works, it is indeed very scary. When the Fed can create as much money as it wants out of nothing, burdening Americans with even more debt to give banks the liquidity and cash they think they need because everyone is panicking, you know , things are not going very well right now.
Now look what this means for our investments? What does this mean for stocks and real estate, and should we even invest now, or should we also use cash? Well, actually, it's probably the right move for now, even with the huge moral hazard that companies can simply borrow money and hardly pay it back.
This gives the market at least some confidence. And confidence is truly needed now, in times of extreme uncertainty . The theory is that in bad and uncertain times, the Fed gets into debt. In fact, he's getting into debt. And when times are good, that debt gets paid off, and eventually we can kind of tear off the sheet and say, “Hey, this one’s paid off.
Let's move on to the next one." The problem is, last time the Fed said, "Hey, let's start paying down our debt in 2018," they almost crashed the market. So, we are living in truly unprecedented times. Even though it's crazy and hard to fully understand, it still gives me a little more confidence and I'm glad I'm still investing, doing real estate and investing in real estate because I know the banks will still have money.
I wonder what this means for the future, and does it mean my children will have to pay for all this debt? Where does all this come from? Or will we just move on to the roaring 20s after this is all over and the car will run so well that we can pay off all this debt. I have no idea . All I know is that I really hope you follow me on Instagram.
I hope this helped you, and if you still don't understand the Federal Reserve, that's okay . Me too. 10 10 10 10
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