저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프의 대만 방위비 발언과 바이든 행정부의 대중 반도체 수출통제 강화 검토 보도로 미중·대만 긴장이 커지며 엔비디아가 7% 하락했다. 엔비디아는 TSMC 생산 의존도가 높아 리스크가 증가했지만, 가격 할인폭을 감안하면 여전히 매수 기회라고 평가했다. 중국 매출 비중은 2023년 19%에서 2024년 14%로 감소했다. 장기 투자 관점에서 엔비디아를 여전히 유망 종목으로 봤다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Nvidia stock was down 7% today on the back of comments from both Donald Trump and the Biden Administration that brought down broader semiconductor stocks overall stocks like asml Taiwan semiconductor AMD were all down as well as Nvidia so I'll review the comments made by Donald Trump and the change in policy or potential change in policy from the Biden Administration and why that's causing nvidia's stock price to fall and then I'll answer whether or not this is a buying opportunity or a time to take profits in Nvidia stock so there's a lot to cover let's start with the comments from Donald Trump who said that Taiwan should pay the US for its defense as it does not give the country anything the Republican presidential candidate told Bloomberg business week and that said the stock price of tsmc lower on Wednesday now tsmc and Nvidia are connected because Nvidia gets nearly all of its Supply from Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing so if something's going to devastate Taiwan semiconductor it's going to hurt Nvidia as well and so the news that that sent Taiwan semiconductor stock down also brought down Nvidia stock but you might be wondering why this news is connected to tsmc and Nvidia well if the and I'm no political expert I just look at how these political actions or R rhetoric could impact stocks and business because especially when you deal with International companies like Taiwan semiconductor and Nvidia politics plays an important role because of decisions like this export controls import controls tariffs quas and other factors have big implications for business and what this suggests is if the US is not going to defend Taiwan as robustly as they have been as the Biden Administration has been signaling then that could encourage China to take more aggressive action against Taiwan which would then put Taiwan chip manufacturer tsmc under huge pressure it might not be able to manufacture as it's used to the supply constraints will increase which would put Nvidia in a bind because that's its primary supplier now it could diversify away but that would take some time and it's still going to be hurt so under underlying these difficulties are that Taiwan which China views as its own territory has complained of repeated Chinese military activity over the past four years as Beijing seeks to pressure the democratically governed Island which rejects China's sovereignty claims so they have this uh battle between each other Taiwan and China and the US is sort of in the middle of it because the US is the defending Taiwan or claiming that it will defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese Invasion or a Chinese military action so those factors put Taiwan semiconductor Manufacturing in the middle of all of this and Nvidia as a result in the middle as well so that's why these comments from Donald Trump raised the risks of this happening raised the risks of China taking aggressive military action because if China feels the US is not as robust in taiwan's defense it may see that as an opportunity to take action and so if it does take action then that's a huge negative for the entire semiconductor industry including Nvidia and Taiwan semiconductor and so as a result decline on the back of this an announcement on the back of this comment because it increases the probability of the worst case scenario so that being said Nvidia is a major supplier of chips and Computing systems for AI they said that they feel perfectly safe about relying so much on Taiwan for manufacturing the CEO Jensen hang said um in the beginning of June so some companies have expressed concerns about the potential risks to business given heightened milit AR threats by China against Taiwan but Nvidia feels safe Nvidia still feels safe but even though Nvidia feels safe they're still taking action to diversify away from this big risk they understand it's a risk and they are taking action to diversify away and one thing that Nvidia is interested in is using Intel for manufacturing its chips the CEO Jensen hang said around March 23rd they're interested in using their foundaries we're very interested in exploring it Jensen Hong said but he added that The Foundry discussions take a long time as it's about integrating Supply chains and so the US has been incentivizing companies like Intel and Taiwan semiconductor and Samsung and Micron and other semiconductor companies to increase manufacturing capacity in the US and many of the companies including clud Intel and Taiwan semiconductor have been taking advantage of those incentives and so they're building they're investing in these manufacturing facilities in the US so that diversification is happening it's been happening for some time now and so Nvidia understands this risk and they have been investing to try and keep this risk under control so on top of the comments from Donald Trump we had some reports from Bloomberg about the Biden administ ation considering implementing a more severe curb involving controls on foreign manufactured products that use even the smallest amount of American Technology current restrictions have already impacted us-based companies ability to sell to China Nvidia specifically their sales to China decreased as a percentage of total data center revenue from 19% in 20123 to just 14% in 2024 so the US has imposed already several restrictions on sales to China of its technology and if the Biden Administration implements even more severe curbs then that's an escalation in this tit fortat that's going on between the US and China and Taiwan so this would not help the case this would not help decrease tension among the countries vying for Semiconductor superiority as the importance of artificial intelligence is really in increasing to a whole another level already export controls imposed by the Netherlands as sml's home country bars the company from selling its most advanced technology to Chinese companies that means the shipments there consist of older generations of Chip making equipment now when we're talking about the artificial intelligence supply chain I already highlighted that tsmc is the supplier for NVIDIA Nvidia buys its uh n outsources its manufacturing to tsmc tsmc Meanwhile uses asml technology for manufacturing and asml has the most Cutting Edge technology for manufacturing semiconductor chips and so you can think about that supply chain Nvidia goes to TM tsmc tsmc goes to asml and so this restriction goes all the way back through the supply chain and so Washington which wants to limit beijing's access to chip technology that could be used by its military still appears unhappy and Bloomberg reported early Wednesday that the US wants the Netherlands and Japan where asml competitor Tokyo electron is based to tighten their export controls in other words the Biden Administration wants to put more pressure on its allies in Japan and the Netherlands to place more restrictions on exports of these Technologies and so so that's creating even more pressure increasing risks even further that this situation could escalate into something much worse and so that's why you're seeing nvidia's stock price down 7% today that's the primary reason Nvidia stock price is down 7% today now to answer the question do I view this as a buying opportunity and I'll refer back to my recommendation of Nvidia stock I've ha and this news increases the risks for Nvidia stock but you're also getting a 7% discount now so the risks increased but the price also decreased by 7% which in my opinion is Justified the stock price should decrease in the event of increased tension between the US China and Taiwan want because that's the biggest risk Nvidia faces right now competition was previously one of its biggest risks but they've proven that they've dominated competition so robustly that competition is now maybe second or third place for NVIDIA in terms of its risks and so this risk being the highest magnitude right in the worst case scenario this risk could really devastate State Nvidia for a time because as we mentioned earlier they are diversifying away from taiwan-based manufacturers and Outsourcing to manufacturers that have a presence in the United States and elsewhere but for a time it will really hinder its supply chain in the event of some difficulties increasing tensions in the region still I don't think this news was enough or is enough for me to downgrade Nvidia stock I still think it's a top stock to buy and I still think the value is really good for investors now the 7% discount doesn't make me feel more excited about Nvidia stock because like I mentioned the 7% discount is coming at the expense of rising risks so it's about neutral in terms of the value you were getting on Monday where these risks were not yet as elevated and the value you're getting today with the stock price down 7% but now the risks are higher because when you're thinking about Investments when I'm thinking about Investments I'm always thinking about risk versus reward so if my risks are higher I need to have a much higher reward to compensate and so I'm getting a lower price but I'm also taking higher risk so overall yes I do think Nvidia stock is still a buy and I do think this is a buying opportunity but not more than I thought it was last wee
Comments 0