저자: RenéSellmann · 외국인
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결론: 버핏은 애플 비중을 줄이는 중이고 리루는 신규 매수했으니, 어느 쪽이 맞는지 판단하기보다 13F를 참고하되 한계를 감안해야 한다. 13F 공시의 한계: 매수 시점이 과거이고, 해외 보유·현금 비중·공매도 포지션이 빠져 있어 대가 추종에는 제약이 있다는 설명. 버핏의 애플 매도: 4분기 약 6% 감축(57만 주 수준, 주당 약 125달러 가정 시 약 70억 달러), 그래도 버크셔 주식 포트폴리오의 약 43%가 애플. 리밸런싱보다는 높아진 밸류에이션이 매도 이유일 가능성 제시. 리루의 애플 매수: 4분기 신규 매수(약 76만 주, 약 1억 달러), 같은 기간 페이스북은 1/3 축소. 매수 이유는 확실치 않음. 애플 밸류에이션: EV/FCF 약 28.9배로 역사적 평균보다 높음. 고성장 지속 가능성에 대한 우려(규모의 법칙, 스마트폰 시장 포화, 최근 5년 매출 성장률 변동). 최근 분기 매출 1,100억 달러, 전년 대비 21% 성장, 영업이익률 30% 돌파. 강세 논리: 강한 브랜드와 가격결정력, 10년 FCF 마진 26.7%, ROIC 중앙값 31.8%, 신사업(서비스, 자동차, 증강현실 등) 옵션 가치 강조. 리루는 애플이 비자·마스터카드보다 낫다고 평가. 출연자 전망: 애플 강세/약세 여부를 명확히 결론짓지 않고 시청자 의견을 묻는 형식. 장기적으로 애플의 신사업 확장 가능성을 긍정적으로 언급.
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discuss the q413f filings that have been published quite recently and in particular we'll take a look at the portfolio activity of warren buffett and lilu because while buffett reduces apple position quite significantly lilu actually initially initiated a position in the world renowned tech company so who of these two heavyweight investors is right and who is wrong well i will discuss this in this video so let's get startright before we get started please let me know in the comments down below whether you are an apple bull or an apple bear where do you think the stock will be in 10 years from now do you think apple will make a compelling investment based on current valuations so it's that time of the year again it is 13 f season and fund managers with more than 100 million dollars in assets under management had to disclose their equity holdings on february 14th actually and for me as an investor the 13 f season feels like christmas in a way there are around 12 to 13 fund energies whose activities are track-wise quite closely and i do that in order to generate new investment ideas to gain additional confidence in my own investment theses or maybe also to question or think critically about certain stocks now before we take a look at buffett's and lilu's portfolio it's important to acknowledge the limitations of these 13f filings so first and foremost there are there's a certain time like i would say it's important to point out that the purchases have taken place in the past and just because you discovered that a superstar investor is betting heavily on a specific stock that doesn't mean that he or she would still buy it at to this today's price some of these stocks purchases that you can find in 13 fs may in fact have been made a couple of months ago and in some cases more than three months ago and in addition to that you should be aware of the fact that 13f reports are not necessarily a 100 accurate depiction of an investor's portfolio because first and foremost they don't include international holdings moreover you also don't know how big the cash position of an individual superstar investor is this is not disclosed and lastly 13fs also don't disclose short positions which makes following gurus gurus at pair long and short positions much less valuable and also maybe dangerous in some instances so with that out of the way we can now turn to buffett and lilu well first of all i have to point out that there wasn't anything striking regarding the 13f filings of the fund managers that i dragged most of them did very little which didn't really surprise me at all to be honest however what i did notice was that the two superstar investors already mentioned so buffett and lee blue apparently they have contradicting views on the future of apple stock because while buffett continues to trim his or continued to trim his apple position lilu actually started to invest in apple in q4 of so if we focus on buffett first we can see that in fact he already started started trimming his apple position in the previous quarter he reduced his position by 3.7 and q3 of last year and now in q4 by a whopping six percent and berkshire's apple position is huge even after trimming the stock in the previous previous two quarters apple still represents around 43 of berkshire's equity portfolio in q4 buffett sold 57 apple shares and if we just assume an average selling price of say 125 dollars per share that represents more than 7 billion dollars for most fund managers that's a huge sum as most of them don't even have that much money in assets under management and if we now turn to lilu well his plan is called himalaya capital management and he's managing roughly 14 billion dollars in assets and leeloo is probably best known for being the only person besides warren buffett who charlie munger dressed with when when it comes to his money he famously said i'm 95 years old i've given manga money to some outsider to run once in 95 years that's lilu and he referred to him as the warren buffett of china so if we now look take a look at the 13f filing of lilu right off the bat we can see that the us equities of lilu's portfolio only represent 1.8 billion dollars so on data roma which is the website i used to track what these superstar investors do well on data aroma it states that lilu initiated a position in apple that now represents 5.5 percent of the total portfolio but that is actually not accurate because as we said the 13f filings do not display international investments if we would consider lilu's foreign holdings the apple position should be much smaller and much less meaningful nonetheless lulu purchased roughly 760 000 apple chairs with close to 100 million dollars that's a lot of money actually so obviously he believes in this investment now what i found particularly striking is that lee liu actually cut his facebook position by a third after he actually doubled it only a quarter ago and if we take a look at facebook's stock price we can see that the stock price didn't really move much in the last quarter but lilu's facebook investment should not be the main focus of this video and the decision to buy apple is probably not related to his decision to sell facebook even though the two tech titans actually are at each other's throat right now over who exploits user data more so let's consider why buffett might have sold his apple position and why lilu may have started a position in apple well first of all while superstar investor is buying a stock is a very clear signal there's not a whole lot one can misinterpret here investors might sell individual positions for all sorts of reasons in fact investors might sell a stock even though they still believe in the future of the company but they might have a better idea that will likely yield better returns and obviously investors always need to consider opportunity cost however in buffett's case it is safe to assume that he did not trim apple to raise cash for other investments the actual is known for its insanely large cash position and buffett is in fact often criticized for yeah not putting the capital to work if we just take a look at berkshire's most recent sec filing we can see that despite buying back five billion dollars worth of its own stock berkshire still sits on a strong cash position of around 140 billion dollars so why did buffett continue to trim his apple position well as apple represents a huge portion of berkshire's equity portfolio one might be tempted to think that buffett is attempting to rebalance the portfolio maybe just for starters rebalancing is the process of realigning the weightings of a portfolio of assets to make sure that no position becomes too large but buffett doesn't believe in rebalancing why should you sell a stock that has been a massive winner for you i've actually talked about the idea of letting your winners run if the fundamentals are still intact in my video on the art of not selling the only reason to rebalance would be that a portfolio that is highly concentrated in say one or two stocks is likely much more volatile and obviously not everyone can stomach these wild swings so but buffett is not affected by these wild swings so there must be other reason for buffet to sell his apple shares well i think he might sell a few shares here because apple's valuation has become quite high it is certainly high compared to its own history i included the following charts in my recent video on relative evaluation the charts show that apple's current valuation multiples so price to earnings price to sales and price to free cash flow are clearly at a higher level than apple's historical averages apple is currently trading at an ev2 free cash flow ratio of 28.9 which is certainly rather expensive such a high ratio may be well justified and investors can still enjoy above average returns if a company can sustain high or very high growth rates for many years and can continue to reinvest in its own business at attractive rates the question is whether apple can still do this successfully over the next say 10 years my biggest concern here would be the sheer scale that apple has already reached with a market cap of more than two billion dollars it is already the most valuable company in the world and the law of large number numbers states that as a company grows it becomes more difficult to sustain previous growth rate and especially more difficult to sustain high growth rates and thus the company's growth rate will likely decline as it continues to expand and in a way we can observe this phenomenon with apple ii if we just consider the last five years we can see year-over-year revenue growth rates of minus seven percent six percent sixteen percent minus two percent and five point five percent such growth rates certainly do not justify any v2 free cash flow ratio north of 20 and apple's spectacular stock performance in 2020 was actually largely driven by an expansion of valuation multiples and not by the fundamentals of the business so obviously we don't know why buffer sort is of apple shares but i think this might be one of the reasons the runway of smartphone adoption is not as long as it used to be and you might argue that the smart smartphone market as a whole is fairly saturated and apple's revenue is still somewhat concentrated in the iphone now those are just my guesses based on my basic understanding of apple's business i guess apple's valuation is the main element of any bear or apple bear thesis however as we have pointed out lilu bought apple in q4 so obviously there must also be a bull case well no one really doubts the strength of apple's brand and in fact apple has just recently reported a blow out quarter apple crossed a milestone by generating 110 billion dollars in revenue during its first quarter ending in december last year and this quarter represented a record for the tech iron and the gain of 21 compared to the same period last year in fact this was the best year-over-year growth rate apple achieved in more than five years and operating income 2 jumped by 31 year-over-year to 33 billion dollars producing an operating margin above 30 percent for the first time since late 2015 and apple achieving these numbers despite its scale was just mind-blowing to me and there are obviously other bull arguments worth mentioning here apple is certainly one of the if not the strongest brand in the world it's a premium brand with insane pricing power in my opinion apple's 10-year free cash flow margin is 26.7 percent and the 10-year median return on invested capital is 31.8 those are numbers investors dream of and certainly show that apple's fundamentals are incredibly strong in a recent interview with investment talks twitter legend livium capital said the following about apple's future growth prospects the idea of call options is important and this is kind of an extension of being a good business with the long runway i mentioned visa and mastercard and previous answer great businesses but limited and reinvestment opportunity when i look at a business like apple even though iphone is saturated and the end market is more mature now and revenue growth is slowing i still think it's a better business than visa and mastercard and the reason is that apple has optionality that is almost unlimited the call option on one more thing is unbelievably valuable this is exactly the sort of thing i look for in a business so what libyan capital is referring to here i think is that apple might continue to enjoy high growth rates by expanding into new business lines the transition to being more of a service company is already well underway and moreover there have been rumors that the smartphone giant is talking with other automakers namely nissan and hyundai as far as i know and considering to work on an electric or autonomous car project moreover facebook is very vocal about the next computing platform which is then powered by augmented reality and virtual reality and apple will certainly be a major competitor in this field so in a way all of this optionality combined with the strength of the apple brand reminded me of manish pa bray's recent talk in which he introduced a new component of his investment framework the idea of looking for so-called spawners he outlined that a spawner is a company with quote dna which reflects a deep conviction and the importance of relentlessly adding and incubating new businesses that have the potential to be massive growth engines and while i would say that apple hasn't been a clear spawner in the past they might already be on their way to become one and this should already be it for this video as always i hope you learned something and ] you
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