저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Marc Faber는 현재 글로벌 경제 위기의 원인을 중앙은행의 본래 역할(화폐 가치 유지) 이탈에서 찾는다. 중앙은행 정책 문제: 1980년대 이후 중앙은행이 화폐 가치 안정이라는 본래 임무에서 벗어났다고 주장. 재정적자를 메우기 위한 돈 찍기가 자산 인플레이션을 낳았다고 봄. 인플레이션과 숨은 세금: 인플레이션은 보이지 않는 세금이며, 가시적 세금 인상과 달리 대중이 저항하지 않아 정책당국이 선호한다고 설명. 자산 가격 상승은 초기엔 환영받지만 임대료 상승으로 결국 다수에게 부담이 된다고 지적. 2000년대 이후 저금리와 주택 버블: 연준(Fed)이 금리를 인위적으로 낮게 유지해 주택 버블을 의도적으로 만들었고, 이것이 2008~2009년 금융위기로 이어졌다고 주장. 이후 연준과 유럽중앙은행(ECB)의 마이너스 금리·초저금리 장기화는 '거대한 실수'이며 임시 조치가 영구화됐다고 비판. 자본 배분 왜곡과 좀비 기업: 저금리로 이익 없는 좀비 기업이 연명하며 자본 배분이 왜곡됐고, 청년층은 과도한 레버리지 없이는 주택을 살 수 없는 세대가 됐다고 봄. 실질 금리와 생활비: 1973~74년 인플레 당시 금리가 12%였던 데 비해 현재 10년물 국채 금리는 3.5~4% 수준으로 인플레 조정 시 여전히 지나치게 낮다고 평가. 체감 물가상승률은 가구별로 최소 6%~최대 12% 수준이라고 언급. 유럽 식품 물가가 전년 대비 15% 오른 점을 예시로 듦. 중국과 신흥국: 중국 개방은 산업 원자재 수요를 늘려 호주 등에 이롭고, 중국 제품의 저가 공급으로 일부 소비재 물가를 낮췄다고 설명. 터키의 약 80% 인플레이션을 현재 위험 신호의 사례로 언급. 종목·자산 전망: 영상에서 구체적인 개별 종목 가격 목표나 1~3개월 방향성 예측은 확인되지 않음.
다듬은 글
the Federal Reserve in America the Fed they kept interest rates artificially low and they deliberately produced a housing bubble that was a deliberate action in today's video Mark Faber an investment advisor fund manager media commentator and author discusses the role of central banks in the current global economic crisis and how their focus on asset inflation has led to misallocation of capital and a generation of people who cannot afford to buy properties without excessive leverage he also warns of an inflation crisis as interest rates rise in the negative impact of invisible taxes like inflation on people's cost of living we're in a mess globally at the moment what should we have done to not get into this crazy position we're in at the moment well I think the answer is actually quite simple I believe that central banks uh went off their mission essentially which is to see to it that money is has some value in other words you pay for money that it doesn't depreciate that it's a store of value and that's that it is a reliable unit of account who went somewhere in the 1980s that mission got lost in the boom of assets because as they is the monetary policies and I have to explain here the central banks easy monetary policies were kind of forced upon them by growing fiscal deficits here then the government they can have deficits but in order to cover the deficits the fiscal deficits they ought to increase taxation okay so your personal income tax goes up and the sales tax in the Department's doors goes up but these are visible taxes and individuals don't like to be taxed this is a one of the human Natures they don't like to pay taxes but if the tax is invisible and let's face it that inflation is a tax it arises because fiscal deficits are financed by money printing so all the years of Essentia deficit financing and all the years of asset appreciation were inflationary but it was an inflation that the public likes in other words when home prices go up they like it they don't like it forever because as home prices go up and as commercial properties go up in value eventually rents also go up and that is something that the majority doesn't like because the rental the expenditures is paid by the majority that doesn't own commercial properties is a minority that own a lot of commercial properties and even home prices is not obvious that it's beneficial but initially it people liked it you know disaster inflation and the petroleum minus is all uploaded the central Bankers because portfolio managers get paid by the appreciation of the Assets in other words you manage a million dollars it goes up by 20 percent the per annum every year the asset grows and therefore also your fees this is of course uploaded by the financial community and the bonuses go up this is the financial Community is actually also guilty in the sense that they encouraged and tolerated the irresponsible monetary policies but I would say especially after the first financial crisis in 2000 2002 the feather the Federal Reserve in America the Fed they kept interest rates artificially low and they deliberately produced a housing bubble that was a deliberate action supported by Keynesian like brugman Paul Krugman and also Bernanke said yeah well you know these wrong prices go up we can postpone the problem sensible so they kept interest rates artificial low and we had this gigantic housing bubble with low quality credits subprime lending and supposedly collapse and led to the great financial crisis of 2008-2009 and after that the feds doubled down and kept interest rates near zero and in Europe the genius is at the ECB went into negative interest rates you understand yeah and that was really a colossal mistake especially since they kept these zero interest rates and below zero interest rates at those artificially low levels for far too long they should have maybe for a year I could understand they would have said you know well we want to kind of solve the financial crisis and there was but it's not the solution it's just postpones everything and now when inflation you see inflation is a complex issue because when stocks go up people will say it's a bull market when the property Market goes up it's they say it's a bull market but when the price of carrots and potatoes and fish and meat goes up they say it's inflation yes it's Consumer Price inflation the other is an asset inflation but in character both are the same and both are undesirable because the asset inflation produces a generation of people who cannot afford to buy properties unless they leverage you know to the health you know they borrow 90 95 or even 100 so that these were monitoring mistakes that occurred and because interest rates were at zero it encouraged people to have zombie companies yeah you understand if you borrow a 10 per annum you have to achieve a profit of say 12 or 15 to 20 to make a deal out of it but if your cost of financing is zero okay you don't need to show a profit for years you can keep on postponing it so that created a lot of misallocations of capital and that I think it was the mistake that could have been avoided but you know in a bubble the FED brings money and the people are uploading it nobody is critical we investors then The Observers I always ask us when when is the end do you understand I knew people in the mid 80s they thought the debt grows in America is unsustainable and that the whole thing will collapse okay we had one day collapse in 87.
that was in Australian where all these entrepreneurs the Australian entrepreneurial stocks they got slashed by 50 percent in one day but afterwards it recovered with different stocks but it recovered and the property Market has kept on going up and so forth and then the opening of China was of course good for the world in two respects first they had a very large and growing demand for industrial Commodities which is beneficial for Australia and two because they produce Goods at the low prices compared to what we can produce in the western world their share of export markets grew but they also caused disinflation in good prices in others if you bought a telephone in year 2000 it was basically cheaper than in 1990.
certainly when you considered the quality improvements but also car prices and so it was good prices the appliances and so what didn't go up in price much Services did go up but at the Central Bank have a funny way to calculate inflation oh don't they yeah which understates the cost of living increases of people yeah but you don't do referring to your question do you look at Argentina and you look at turkey turkey as an interesting rate of say 80 percent and if you and I go on a romantic walk on the perhaps on the side of the phosphorus in Istanbul life is normal you would notice that they have 80 inflation and this is one of the concerns I have at the present time okay the FED has increased interest rates but the last time inflation was as high as it is now was in 1973-74 yeah and by then you say they didn't have what we call today the FED fund rate they used essentially the prime rates the lending rate but it was at 12 percent wow today it's you know the 10 years treasury bond was over nine percent at the time and now the treasury the 10 years is at less than four percent about 3.5 percent so inflation adjusted the reality is that interest rates are still far too low the inflation rate he said I don't know each household has a different depression rate but it's it is between say six percent the minimum to twelve percent yeah the cost of living increase yesterday I sold the cost of living increases in Europe in the EU for food up 15 percent
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