저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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미국 CPI·PPI 월간 상승으로 인플레 우려가 있으나 전년 대비 둔화 추세는 유지됨. 연준은 금리 인하를 서두르지 않을 것. 인도 증시는 중국 자금 유입으로 사상 최고치 행진, 다만 melt-up 후 meltdown 가능성을 경계. 중국은 부동산 버블 붕괴로 5~7년 문제가 지속될 전망. 미국 시총 비중 47%로 집중도가 높고 빅7 집중은 지속될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
right Ed yard if yard research is joining us now to take some questions Ed great to have you with us here thanks very much for your time uh you know the you guys enjoyed a nice holiday so back uh into the mix today you know are shoing that's that's nice anded uh you know inflation on Friday once again uh sort of came in hot right the CPI earlier and then producer price numbers as well um what's what's the sense I mean is the the overwhelming view the urge is to just ignore all of this and sort of look at the broader Trend which is disinflation it's coming it's a matter of time but along the way are there going to be meaningful gations from the market well I think there that this past week there were some meaningful gations in the CPI and the PPI that caused investors to be concerned about U whether inflation is going to continue to moderate a lot of the concerns were about the month-over-month changes and people went and looked at the at the uh details and some of the details were disturbing but the FED can't control what happens to specific items in inflation it's the overall inflation rate that it has some influence over and the overall inflation rate continues to come down the CPI both core and headline excluding shelter is right around 2% the PPI inflation rate is also right around 2% so I think inflation is still moderating uh but I don't think that the FED is going to be easing anytime soon I think they're going to use these hotter than expected month-over-month increases to conclude that uh there's no rush to lower interest rates and I agree with that okay Ed hi good morning and thanks as always for joining us uh back home in India things are looking extremely good right I mean record highs for the market uh domestic institutions are pumping in money should one start to get a bit cautious or you think that there's more to this rally now well I think uh India is benefiting uh as we've discussed before for money that might have gone into China now going into India and we can kind of see it in the stock markets right the uh the Chinese stock market has been horrible for the past couple of years and the government finally decided to intervene and provide some support and that's been sort of fizzled out it doesn't seem to have really boosted the stock market all that much and meanwhile India's Market continues to go higher so I think we can look at the stock markets to get a sense of the kind of the geopolitical developments and how they're impacting the Indian economy versus the Chinese economy uh but yeah both the United States and CH and both the United States and India do feel as though they they need to take a break here uh but um they they may not uh there's so much now interest in investing both in the US and on a global basis focusing in a country like India that uh we may very well see a melt up in both markets so that's that's not something I'm rooting for because the problem with melt UPS is they're generally followed by meltdowns uh talking about uh China the recent economic data the holiday spending the travel spending in the Lunar New Year has beaten expectation does that position China perhaps for a tactical rally and structurally are you sensing a bit of a change well I was very interested to see the initial response of the Chinese stock market to this data wasn't all that inspiring uh so I'm not sure that the markets over there or investors on a global basis are convinced that just because uh they traveled more during the the lunar holiday and that maybe they spent more in the casinos that that's going to change the uh the underlying problems in the chi Chinese economy and that underlying problem is a serious one they've got a property bubble that's burst and we've seen similar situations like that in Japan in the United States and it could take five to seven years for those uh problems to uh finally be behind them and uh you know I came across the statistic uh yesterday the US market now is 47% of the world market capitalization yeah huge you know in 2011 that was 30% so uh you know it's just incredible right and by the way within the US the the seven large stocks Microsoft Nvidia Amazon meta alphabet Tesla the seven the Magnificent 7 as they're called that's 25% of the US market capitalization so this is some extreme concentration right yeah it's very concentrated um and here in the United States a lot of uh investors a lot of technicians and strategists are concerned that it is so concentrated that it hasn't uh been as Broad as they would like but uh I've talked to some European investors uh Korean investors others who said you know if you look at other markets they're also very concentrated uh so the United States has had a tendency to be very broad but now it's concentrating to these Magnificent Seven stocks and they're not going to go away they're making a tremendous amount of money they are clearly investing in the in the future of artificial intelligence so it is what it is oh absolutely and your point is taken you know world economies are struggling right we just heard about two of the world's largest economies Japan and UK announcing recession and of course the China property Market as you said is in a bubble so it'll always be beneficial for markets like India perhaps when investors want to put more money to work Ed thanks a lot for your time thank thank you for your time and your and your views well that's the word coming in on the global market
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