저자: Josh · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 후 시간외 급등을 다루며, 밸류에이션(P/S 28x vs 업계 6.6x)과 6월 계절적 약세를 근거로 단기 과열 경계. 지지선 기준 매수 구간(354→346→295→285)을 제시하고, 엔비디아 인버스 ETF(NVDS)와 SQQ 헤지를 보유하며 SQQ 22달러 부근 추가 매수 계획을 밝힘. 장기적으로는 AI 수혜로 엔비디아 500달러 도달 가능성은 인정.
다듬은 글
Hey There YouTube family yesterday Nvidia obviously killed it with their earnings with an explosive move to the upside after hours but today what I was watching for was to see how that move would be digested if it would stick if they would lose ground if the rest of the market would push up or whether it would pull back largely the overall markets were very very mixed today mostly big Tech was still moving higher Microsoft in particular was doing pretty well obviously besides Nvidia and AMD they were up Microsoft was up four percent and apple was holding ground it was not breaking down you know how I keep a close eye on Apple to see what the overall sentiment of the largest investment in the world is which is Apple stock if that begins to break down it typically tells me that there might be some weakness in the whole market right now it's holding up pretty well I'm also going to break down some professional opinions regarding Nvidia I would say that I looked and took a good Market breadth view of what people thought about this big move I'm going to share some very insightful views from some people that I respect this is the stock talks with Josh show as always appreciate you guys hitting that like I thank all the new subscribers that are joining this community and hit that notification Bell so you can get all of the updates of the videos that I post you know that my goal on this page is to give stock and crypto insights analysis and predictions in an easy to understand way thank you for hitting that subscribe and notification Bell so Nvidia went up 20 after hours Nvidia actually added 200 billion dollars in market cap in just a couple hours they did it on an earnings per share beat of a dollar nine which was actually a decline from last year of a dollar 36 which is quite interesting so yes they beat Market's expectation but it was significantly less than the same place that they were last year at a cheaper stock price in addition to that the revenue was down year over year 13 this decreased revenue and decreased earnings per share and yet this significantly higher stock price causes us to ask the question is this move Justified or is it setting up for a massive short opportunity I'm going to examine both sides of that with you guys Nvidia reached an all-time high of 346 bucks but then in October it was one of the first big tech stocks to actually come to its lows which was around 108 dollars it hit that in October of 2022 way ahead of the rest of big Tech and from there we've gone up 266 percent to 394 dollars that was the peak of this current move we pulled back a little bit close to 400 and right away all the analysts who are bullish have been coming out and saying keep buying keep buying it's going to 500 bucks well we're going to look at the realisticness of that case I'm going to try to make it as as honest as I can and again I bought something today so I'm going to let you know whether it was some more Nvidia or what else it might have been all right let's kind of examine a little bit of the bullish case and to do that I'm going to go to Mark minoravini I mentioned him the other day in the video that before we had this big push up on Nvidia he came out and said I am going in heavy on Nvidia calls and to that a lot of people criticized him and said oh man aren't you late to Big Tech you're going to go in heavy on Nvidia calls he did that obviously it was the right call and I'm going to give you his follow-up opinion that he gave today which I found was very very interesting let me read it to you guys he said believe it or not this morning's big gap up only puts Nvidia at the eighth most extended it's been in price so it's a very simple comment basically he's coming out I'm sure that he is hesitantly bullish but he's trying to tell everybody to put in perspective this particular run-up is not the highest or furthest that nvidia's price has gone it's actually the in eighth place as far as a big move for NVIDIA or a multiple of expense for NVIDIA so he's saying keep it in perspective even though this was a massive move there still could be room up because this isn't the most expensive Nvidia has ever become but he tied that and to another post that he had given the other day that I think puts his overall position into perspective let me read that to you he said money's been running to the safety of Mega caps which we know that all the big Tech cap stocks is wherever where all the money's been flowing and today when I showed you guys that heat map of the S P 500 it's showing the exact same thing it's big Tech that's still getting bought up today with little appetite for risk and a dramatic underperformance coming for small and mid caps which obviously we know that nobody's buying small and mid caps it makes sense Tuesday we added Nvidia to our Focus list yesterday we added Netflix however while the Fang names may run up a bit more on their own momentum we will soon be approaching extended levels so what he's saying is that you know we're adding to these positions and it's simply a momentum play this is what Advanced Traders do they trade the momentum they trade the push but he's saying that ultimately that momentum is going to come to an end he said we soon will be approaching extended levels if we get a meaningful Rally from here I would sell Feng into the strength so I just want to remind you guys first of all what he's saying is we're adding to our Fang positions we're adding to Nvidia but if we get a big bullish move a final push-up he said we're going to sell into that and remember what I said to you guys the other day about Morgan Stanley where they said they were going to sell the conclusion of the debt ceiling whether good or bad they said they're just going to use it as a milestone when we get to the conclusion of the debt ceiling that's when they're going to sell their position and they're probably going to hold off to the rest of the year and they're going to play Risk off on big Tech which is at like Mark mineral Mark minervini said it's an extended it's in an extended risk position and in regards to the extended risk position I want to specifically talk to you guys about the price to sales that Nvidia has versus their peers Nvidia is basically pretty expensive based on its price to sales ratio it's got a 28 X all right compared to the pier average of 6.6 X so that is an extremely high price to sales ratio and from a fundamental perspective for a lot of fundamental Traders and you guys know I'm mostly a technical Trader I trade price action in the charts but I definitely keep an eye on the fundamentals and the fundamentals of a price to sales ratio for NVIDIA at 28x versus their peers at 6.6 X means that this thing has gotten a really high price to sales ratio I'm going to share a tweet by a gentleman by the name of Alf which I thought was very interesting he shared this tweet in regards to Nvidia something that the CEO of sun Microsystems said back in 2000 when those guys hit the valuation of only 10x so he said this when they hit a 10x valuation and he's comparing that to the current fomo surrounding Nvidia when they're at 28x which is massively bigger than the buying frenzy that occurred over on sun Micro Systems when they were at 10x so let me read this to you he said at 10 times Revenue to give you a 10-year payback I have to pay you 100 of the revenues for 10 straight years in dividends so that I can get that by my shareholders that assumes that I have zero cost of goods sold which is very hard for a computer company that assumes zero expenses which is really hard for a company with 40 000 employees that assumes I pay no taxes which is very hard and that assumes that you pay no taxes on your dividends which is kind of illegal and that assumes with zero r d for the next 10 years then I can maintain the current Revenue run rate now having done that would any of you like to buy my stock at sixty four dollars do you realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are you don't need any transparency you don't need any footnotes what were you thinking so he's basically saying that at the time sun Microsystems had gone up to a 10x and he was saying how can the company produce enough to return that value to the shareholders it said eve and he paints this picture of trying to return that value to the shareholders over 10 years and says it's basically impossible he was saying that his stock was not a good investment when it was at a 10x price to sales ratio and that perhaps for some of us puts into perspective about the extreme run-up of price on Nvidia at a 28x I want you guys to think about that now also on the bearish case and we're going to examine both sides we're going to look at support and resistance this isn't a trash Nvidia but this is sort of everything that you probably need to hear about your Nvidia investment video so over on Trend spider they pointed out that Nvidia is coming into its worst performing month they're giving us a nice little chart showing the average price return on Nvidia in the stock market for every month of the year and it shows that on average historically since 1991 June has been the worst performing month every single June on average the price has gone down around three percent so here we had an unprecedented run-up we could between now and the end of this month we could have another five days in which it runs up but it's getting ready to go into a month which it has historically returned around a three percent negative return so that is another thing we want to keep in mind all right so if you are bullish on Nvidia right I'm going to tell you guys what I bought or sold today in a minute if you're bullish and you want to buy Nvidia one of the biggest questions that you should be asking yourself is where is support both the support and the resistance is going to tell you guys the best way to play the bear or the bull position on Nvidia once you understand where the support could be that could be your possible buy Zone and if you understand that support is beneath that could be possibly where you take profits on a bearish position in a put or a short position I'm going to break down those technicals for you guys in just a minute I'm going to take a quick station break for the MooMoo Investment app you it's a limited time and exclusive offer to get up to 20 free stock you can click on the link in the top pin comment or the description of the video to get all of the details these guys have all the order types that you need all the conditional ordering that includes all of those stop losses that are needed to protect your Investments plus if you're a member of the chat throw a heart and say hi in the comments for me open up your account get your free stock and come find the chat group all right if there was a single stock that was going to benefit from AI it obviously would make sense that Nvidia would be a company that would benefit and sure enough last night we saw a Monumental return greater than we've seen for any of the other big techs putting AI yet again front and center to the investors we also want to take into consideration the need for Quantum Computing I think down the road we're going to be looking at those stocks as well I've got an upcoming video about the quantum Computing companies that are going to move up coinciding with AI because both are going to be needed in this new era that we're moving into as I said to you before analysts are now calling Nvidia up to 500 but here's the point I want to make to you it's extremely possible that Nvidia is going to get up to 500 but it's not all going to happen overnight it's going to be done level by level moves are going to be digested people are going to take profit as I said to you we're up hundreds of percent from 108 on October Nvidia low right we're up hundreds of percents the smart money takes profits they lock in profits and they buy again on support I'm gonna give you guys those support levels so even though this could get to 500 the overall story will eventually take it to 500 it doesn't mean that the price action is just going to move so far away from the moving averages and never come back to the average that's what it does it moves away from it on enthusiasm and momentum and then it comes back it tests the support of the price action to make the next leg up so I think this was a leg up but now we're going to take a step back we're going to come to some level of support I'm going to give you guys those and then it's going to make another move up from there in time and it also has to take into consideration things like the debt selling which can smack it down that often is what will smack this down to support all right the first technical support that I want to draw your guys's attention to is the top of the Bollinger bands there's support there at 354 dollars if a stock is flying away and it moves way outside the Bollinger Bands it can come back down touch the top of the Bollinger band and continue to move up along that line so your first support I'm going to call it bullish level one your first support is going to be 354 dollars now I'm going to call the next one bullish level two this is if it comes back to Historic support which was 346 dollars remember that was your all-time high and it had once been resistance but when we broke through 346 we're likely to come back and back test it and then what was resistance will become support so the all-time high of 346 is your second level of support now I also want to point out to you guys that that 346 coincides with a natural FIB level so there's two reasons why technically 346 would be a level that Nvidia would want to come back to so if you're bullish level two you'd buy in at 346 or take profits on a bearish position at 346.
now our next level of bull is going to be the next FIB level below which is 295 dollars that's a very natural price point for NVIDIA to come back to if you're patient and you want to let this move get digested and for it to eventually come back to you for a reasonable level to get in for that potential move up to 500 your bullish level three would be 295 bucks again that's the next FIB level below now the last Zone that I'm going to give you guys and this is for the extra patient these are for the people that are only in it for stocks that go up that's going to be 285 bucks and what makes that a support is that one it was the last accumulation zone so there's a lot of buyers that accumulated at 285 for this big big push-up that we just saw they will have taken profits up above and they'll come back and buy at that exact same level because that level had conviction it had what I'd call by conviction before so you're level four for being a bull would be 285 dollar buy entry and if you're a bear a super greedy bear you could potentially hold for it to get all the way down to 285 but of course in that role it may never get there so that's where you have to have a little bit of balance in your perspective those are your entry and exit levels depending on which direction you're trading this so what did I buy what did I sell well I sold Nvidia today and I bought an inverse ETF called nvds now I still have exposure to Nvidia in other ETFs like the voo but I sold my Nvidia and I bought nvds this is an inverse of Nvidia now I just want to review the risks this is actually less risky so from some type of positions you can take but of course it has some inherent risks it's less risky and less expensive than options or direct shorting but because it's an ETF it does carry create some fees those are typically minimal it also gets recalculated like a lot of inverse ETFs so they can continue to match the price of the underlining that it tracks which is NVIDIA and you get lost in those recalculations let me go through some of the technicals now technically on this there's not a lot of history because this inverse to Nvidia has not been around as long as Nvidia has been around but so at this point technically there is no support below so if Nvidia were to continue to run up there's no technical history that would give us a support below for nvds but I would say that the buy range right now for me would be around 9.20 it dropped 32 percent down to go outside of the Bollinger Bands when Nvidia made the massive move up to go to the upside and outside of nvidia's Bollinger Bands people bought when it went outside of those bands they bought up at 8.95 and then it since moved into the bands at 9.60 cents midday today if you wanted to to be conservative and we believe that Nvidia is going to have some volatility going up and down I think you will be able to buy it at 9.20 to around nine dollars I got in around nine dollars I got into ten dollar strike price calls I do not intend to hold them long I intend to trade Nvidia and the inverse Nvidia back and forth as it moves according to support and resistance the same the same ones I'm giving you let me just give you guys an over cap on the markets guys the trend is still bullish that has to be expected I'm going to continue to warn though about the fact that we're on elevated levels at all of these stocks and that's wise to put in some stop losses to protect the profits that might have been made since October or January so you know I'm recommending tight stop losses and I'm recommending taking some profits the biggest problem that most retail investors have is they don't use a stop loss and they never take profits all they do is ride the roller coaster all day up and down now roller coasters are fun if you ride them for just a moment but they would get really unpleasant if you had to ride them for a long period of time some of you guys are in a very unpleasant position because that's all you've been doing day after day week after week riding that roller coaster getting yourself sick to your stomach taking profits is just to get off the roller coaster enjoy the normalcy of life before getting back on and enjoying the thrill I'm gonna be buying and selling but I'm going to be hedging my positions Hedges like the nvds as well as the sqq I did not sell my sqq I expected this to begin to pull back I told everybody that it could go as low as 22 dollars but nobody knows I bought a little bit sub 25 today but I have my eye on the target of 22 bucks if we get down there I'm gonna buy my biggest chunk of 22 bucks and in my view the markets will turn around I think this is going to ramp up to 33 or 34 bucks and if I play my cards right this could absolutely be a ten thousand dollar win I'm not expecting to lose any money on sqq but this is not a suggestion for what you guys should buy sell or hold and I want you guys to understand my strategy G don't just buy it and hold it with no strategy putting all your money in on one price point you can see that I have been adding slowly to my position increasing my position size as it drops in price so that when we get a reversal I'll have a pretty good moving average which will allow me to have a nice profit otherwise I wouldn't really know how you're going to win at it you might just get scared and sell for a loss that that's what a lot of retail might do my very next video is going to be on bitcoin and crypto I see some very interesting setup going on in the charts but I'm going to share that with you guys in the next video as always I appreciate the likes that I get thank you guys for subscribing today and at it coming and joining this conversation that we have daily as always peace and blessings my friends we'll see you in the next video thank you
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