저자: Kevin · 외국인
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일론 머스크의 뉴욕타임스 카라 스위셔 팟캐스트 핵심을 정리. 배터리데이 후 월가·언론 평가에 대한 불만, 테슬라 대량생산 능력(차체 부품 70개→2개, 대형 주조기), 주가 고평가 언급과 5년 후 현재가 상회 기대, 구조형 배터리팩 등 기술 로드맵, 스페이스X 스타십·뉴럴링크, 코로나 봉쇄 비판 및 대선 전망. 발표자 본인은 테슬라 주식을 계속 보유하겠다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
elon musk just said about tesla spacex kovid and a lot of different topics i'm going to give you a condensed version of a podcast that elon musk was just on with new york times kara swisher i'm going to go through the highlights literally the highlights because i'm going to take the transcript and i'm going to show you and comment on some of the best parts especially if you're a tesla investor you want to watch this so let's get right into it right after of course mentioning that you can n bucks they money and making money from youtube videos down below okay let's get started let's pull up the ipad here let's get this transcript i'll link this entire podcast down below but we're just going to jump around to some of the best parts and comment on them so here we go first the podcast begins by talking about elon's reaction to battery day so the first exciting takeaway here comes from elon's frustration about how wall street and the media treated him after battery day elon musk feels battery day is so important for two primary reasons number one he talks about how important it is to actually have large-scale manufacturing and he basically slams companies like nicola here by saying things like this they think aka wall street wall street thinks that once you have come up with a prototype well that's the hard part elon musk says that's actually the trivial part the hard part is replicating that in a factory at scale see elon thinks that making a prototype is just one percent of the problem the manufacturing is much much harder from a thousand x to 10 000 x harder and that's why he believes that prototypes are actually a trivial joke in fact talking about prototypes i'd like to just pull up this picture here this is from the quarter two earnings report from tesla and they mentioned that on the model 3 they're currently taking these 70 pieces that make up the tesla model 3's rear section this colored section back here all of these different pieces that are welded together and they are turning that into just two pieces that's it this right here two pieces it looks to me like you've got kind of one like piece right here and then the other orange section there i don't know exactly but right here it says two pieces of metal eventually one single piece and this not only simplifies manufacturing but it also allows you to speed up manufacturing it allows you to reduce the cost of manufacturing but to do this you have to come up with some pretty insane machinery here's a picture of what's going into giga berlin this right here this massive goliath of a machine just for scale like here's a person right there all right so you know a person's really like that tall relative to this entire machine this is a casting machine that makes and presses the metal into sorts into these parts essentially and elon musk is saying getting those machines to do what you want that's the hard part anybody can make a prototype it's like a nice slam on nicola especially since they've been you know they rolled their prototype down a hill and got a lot of press for that one but we'll keep away from nicola here uh another big frustration that elon has is he says the presses he goes on to say most of the press was and then kara interrupts him and says no battery and elon goes yeah sad reflection of their understanding really and he actually says that we've had these battery cells in cars and operating and working since may now imagine these are prototype cells but it's really interesting to to see into elon's frustration that wait a minute like what we're doing here is actually really big he says there are two billion cars and trucks in the world and the two biggest industries in the world are energy and transportation and so tesla's goal is pushing everybody to how many years can we save in getting to sustainable energy that's elon's biggest goal is how much can tesla push in the entire society and world to go towards sustainable energy so much so that he says right here i do not think it is a wise time to invest in gasoline cars so buying a new gasoline car probably not a wise long-term financial decision at this point electric cars are the future big big bold statements here now uh then we also get over here to we start leaning a little bit more towards the stock valuation which we'll talk more about in just a moment because he makes a comment on that but take a look at some of these other comments first he mentions a big thing that's changed at tesla is that tesla is not in mortal danger anymore and a few weeks ago actually probably within the last week i made a video mentioning that even though right now tesla stock feels like it's done this and that okay that's it why would we invest in tesla we're over here i made a video and i'll link this down below that this might be what it looks like partially because tesla's now actually becoming a little bit more mainstream and it's not going to be some startup that just disappears but in that video i mentioned we might actually be here in the exponential growth curve for tesla that this might be 2020 and this might be 2030.
that there really is so much long-term potential that we're just at the beginning of the curve for tesla and so this is where elon says i think at this point we're not in mortal danger as let's say we were three years ago or even at points before that he says that tesla has been able to get to volume manufacturing have a positive free cash flow which he sees this as very important because basically his goal is when he's manufacturing cars he's trying to manufacture cars faster than the bills come in for the parts and that allows him to keep using that cash to invest in more factories and more infrastructure to build the cars even faster it's kind of brilliant because usually if you get a shipment like here are your x tons of aluminum alloy or whatever okay you owe us the payment in 30 days i think elon's point of view is okay how much can we crank out in the next 30 days and it's smart because it keeps a business uh certainly solvent much longer uh and that's one of the things in references that elon has here or has here rather he says that the only companies in the automotive space that have not gone bankrupt are ford and tesla every other company has gone bankrupt even gm and chrysler went bankrupt in 09 and the only way a new company breaks in is by making a car that is so compelling that people are willing to pay extra for that car so that is something that we have to keep in mind too especially if you're a tesla investor which many of you know that i'm a big tesla investor is we have to watch tesla and make sure that tesla remains that car the people are willing to pay a premium for going forward and so how this 25 000 car is going to play into the mix of margins will be very interesting now about the actual stock price elon musk says i've gone on record already saying that i think the stock price is high that was back when tesla stock was at somewhere around 750 dollars pre-split so divide that number by five and that's what he's talking about as as being too high just two months ago which if we do just that and we go 750 divided by five he's talking about a hundred and fifty dollars a share is too high well right now at the time of this recording tesla closed around 420 dollars per share and so uh like he says that was well before its current level but he gives some hope he says but if you ask me i do think tesla will be worth more than this in five years i think the answer is yes well i i mean i think any of us investing in tesla right now uh are certainly hopeful that tesla stock is going to be worth more in five years than 420 a share post split uh i think uh many of us believe it's going to be worth a lot more than 450 uh in uh in five years okay uh moving on so uh one of the things he also mentions is how does he sort of judge the effort of other companies and he says one of his goals is actually getting other companies to head into the direction of evs and sustainable energy as a tesla investor i think that's really interesting because it almost seems like initially you'd want your competition not to be doing what you're doing but i think tesla sees this or elon sees this as well the more people who are doing electric vehicles the more mainstream electric vehicles go and the more people will eventually come to tesla and the more society and the country and and the global atmosphere with climate change gets helped in fact that's a big thing elon goes into talking about is how he's always keeping an eye on and paying close attention to the fact that carbon dioxide levels are rising dramatically in the earth's atmosphere and so he pays attention to the healing curve which sort of tracks this and he says it's almost like when you look at it it's almost like you're hitting a wall because the the number is just growing so crazy because of well some argue our impact on the world and others say oh no this is just a normal cycle i don't know i think many people believe that uh the human impact on climate change is very very real but anyway let it be very clear that in elon's take here he believes the sooner we transition to sustainable energy the better it will be for the world so elon goes back and mentions that one of the things that really got him excited about electric cars was his belief back in high school that if we run out of oil what's going to happen we're going to have mass starvation we'll go back to horses and that civilization will collapse and so we said that's when he realized we have to have electric cars but the big problem we have is electric density and electric density is exactly what we just learned in a dramatic way is is actually coming to solving the tesla problem right so let's go ahead and pop this open really quickly here this is sandy i'm going to go ahead and link his channel down below but he made an excellent video breaking down how this is sort of the old school style of setup that tesla uses with its battery cells and its battery packs and then made a mockup of what he believes a future version might look like and it might look a whole lot more like this where you have way less of this these plastic parts to hold the modules in and instead these battery packs can basically be epoxied together here let's use a little smaller one to make this a little more clear basically in epoxy all of these battery cells together so you actually have this insanely strong and insanely dense uh battery pack structure that makes the car not only have a lower center of gravity making it easier to control harder to roll over but also makes it extremely safe i mean it's almost like you're creating a tank here which kind of makes me makes me wonder what the implications of that are for other vehicles and so you can actually see where you've got this merger of two things that are actually really really incredible at tesla you've got the denser battery technology coming due to these incredible innovations that tesla just announced like the tableless battery that doesn't require all these modules and parts and connections and can do so much more with so much less but you're also creating now structural components that simplify the manufacturing process even more so you're kind of attacking the whole climate change and tesla problem in two different ways on one way you're reducing costs for the company so they can produce more evs faster but then on the other hand while you're reducing parts you're also making every single individual part stronger and more efficient meaning you need less of them like both of them compound the impact of what's actually happening here and this is where i think elon's frustration comes in so obviously especially not just in this podcast but in other interviews as well where yeah maybe the media is missing the long-term scalability of all of this and maybe it is true that we are indeed just on the early part of the exponential growth curve for tesla maybe this is really where we are because we haven't even really seen the beginning of how all of these things can come together increase the profit margin for tesla make tesla more efficient but then also make tesla even harder to actually keep up with not even compete with just to try to remotely keep up with tesla it's interesting and you know i'll make videos as well talking about some risk factors for tesla like i did uh this weekend something for you to watch if you haven't seen it yet and that's not because i'm not a tesla bull it's just because i want to be a tesla realist as well anyway let's keep going on through uh through what else we've got here oh elon musk for a moment talks about the election and he believes elon musk believes that america will decide the election after the debates and he believes that because he thinks that people just want to see if biden has it together and if he does elon musk believes that biden will probably win the election elon musk says that he's very socially liberal and probably center or maybe slightly right of center on economic policy but very socially liberal on spacex he talks about how how important it is that his spacex company can launch rockets and then reuse them that the reusability of rockets is so important to keep costs down and actually make the future of spaceflight much more realistic in fact he makes this analogy where he says imagine going on a trip and having to tow a car behind you because you're going to drive one car one way then that's going to be obsolete then you're going to hop in the other car and drive back on your trip and you literally spend thirty thousand dollars on a trip and spend a instead of like thirty dollars for gas and he thinks the same is true for rockets which really i mean spacex can be something very very interesting to pay attention to especially since elon musk here says we'll launch starship sometime next year into orbit it will be unmanned but he thinks we could see people in a starship in as little as two years from now which by the way here's just what starship is it's this massive sort of rocket here that's reusable and the headline here is service to earth orbit moon mars and beyond the space x's starship spacecraft and super heavy rocket are referred to as space or starship represent a fully reusable transportation system that's incredible and so this just gives you some sorts of updates and ideas about starships and delivering satellites into space maybe even landing on mars in the future with this starship so uh really really just incredible things uh going on here but let's keep moving on let's see what else elon has to say elon talks a bit about neurolink in this interview let's talk a little bit about that as well elon sees neuralink as basically a fitbit in your skull or an apple watch in your skull and his first goals you know ethics are a big thing for him he wants to do good for society so he says right and i you know i believe him i believe him knock on wood uh but he wants to start with people who need the most help so think about people who are quadriplegic or tetraplegic you know who can't use their limbs or have severe seizures he goes on to say that this could be useful for people who uh overall want their memories to be improved to remember their family to remember their children because at some point as you age you will have dementia he says and these are tools the neurolink are tools for you to be able to maybe have a normal life longer he actually points out this essay that's called they're made of meat and i guess the essay kind of jokes about these this advanced super computer culture that makes fun of humans when they meet us one day and uh they say things like here what elon musk says can't believe it and it's like well how do they talk it's like well they blow air through their meat flaps and then slowly move the meat flaps and have like a meat flute that may makes different tones uh and and this really leads elon musk into talking about how inefficient our way of communicating really is and that neural link might be able to help us output our or increase the bandwidth of our communication better so in addition to maybe making people walk again or solving depression or anxiety or dealing with schizophrenia or seizures you can help people with their memories you can help people communicate faster really i mean just the amount of things that that are in this podcast are absolutely incredible and of course i encourage you to listen to the podcast but i'm just giving you a glimpse of some of the things in here and it's great uh and again elon reiterates that his goal is to maximize the future good that he can do now uh you know he does mention on kovid though that he believes the whole covet lockdowns were irrational he believes that he won't get a vaccine because himself and his kids are not at risk he mentions that it wasn't fair that alameda county made you know elon musk's factory shut down he mentions that if employees feel they're at risk then they should stay home at this point the interviewer presses elon musk a bit and kind of says well i mean isn't it sort of your duty to make sure they still get paid if they have a legitimate reason for staying home and elon musk says well let's just move on things actually got a little tense here just move on that's what you want to do kara i don't want to get into a debate about kovid that's the situation uh if you want to end the podcast now we can do it ouch uh so it gets a little intense there for a moment but elon musk goes back to talking about how irrational the lockdowns were in his opinion and then she kind of slaps back and says hey well why don't you do something about it then which that seems to be the way to kind of get elon back on to the right course of action like what are you going to do about it and elon tells us a little bit about here how he just has so many things that he thinks about solving that he can't allocate all of the brain power to all of these different things and that maybe he should spend more time on thinking about vaccines or covid but he's not going to because he goes to sleep trouble going to sleep because he says he has so many questions in his mind that it's almost like it's like having too many browser windows open or something and he says that endurance definitely goes down a little bit as time goes by and hopefully wisdom gets a little bit better so he's kind of saying like you could really only grind with all these thoughts and ideas for so long and you have to prioritize what it is that you want to do in life what it is that you want to get ahead with in life because if you scatter your brain and you think about too many different things you really end up getting nothing done he also talks about wishing that he could delegate more responsibilities to other people but basically not having enough people to delegate to so uh and this has been a common theme that we've seen sort of on twitter he frequently comes out and says hey like uh does anybody want a job we need good engineers we we're hiring we need more people but uh yeah well there you have it that's actually the end of the podcast but really really incredible hopefully you've appreciated this little breakdown here amazing podcast worth listening to and some really incredible things to consider now for me and the future of tesla stock i keep getting asked kevin when are you going to sell your tesla stock i'm not selling my tesla stock i'm going to keep this tesla stock because i'm a strong believer that we are at the beginning of that curve i encourage you to check out this podcast keep an eye on spacex folks neurolink these are incredible projects uh and we gotta be careful too because even though competition seems to be far out for tesla it's coming so uh let's stay frosty reat podcast elon i doubt you're watching this but great job anyway and folk
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