저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 최대 위협으로 자율주행 경쟁을 지목. 테슬라 가치는 생산량×자율주행 가치인데, 모빌아이 등 외부 자율주행 솔루션이 다수 완성차에 확산되며 자율주행 가치가 희석될 수 있다고 주장. 이에 대한 헤지로 엔비디아·인텔·퀄컴 투자를 검토한다고 언급하나 아직 확정은 아님.
다듬은 글
no it's not nicola iscuss the biggest threat to tesla's a stock that has me concerned about tesla and kind of makes me start wondering if i should diversify a bit and take some risk off the table now to be fair i am a tesla bull i want to get that out of the way up front i own over 11 000 shares of tesla and that makes up a good chunk of my portfolio and i love tesla but as a tesla investor i have to be very real with myself and be aware of the potential downsides to tesla's market share so over the last four weeks i've been heavily researching everything i can about the threats to tesla especially including other ev makers like neo and other startups especially since on a daily basis we talk about this in my course member live streams linked down below in case you want to join but so far i am confident that tesla will dominate on many fronts but i will discuss my concerns i am confident that tesla will ramp up its vehicle sales dramatically i'm confident they're going to succeed on solar where they're currently way underperforming and their new tesla solar model and energy storage model should dominate the market but if i ignore this big potential downside i think i would be a very bad investor now before i mention the big downside let me quickly help you hedge your losses by making sure you have any losses these will help offset those f that doesn't work well then you could just below all right let's start here let's start with with the words from elon musk on battery day that were in my opinion very underappreciated he tells us exactly how to value tesla and this is exactly how i've been valuing tesla on all my prior videos and in my prior spreadsheets but this is in his words so let's just listen to 10 seconds here you know i think the the value of tesla is going to be like total just on the vehicle side total vehicles produced times the value of autonomy that's that's there it is that's the value of tesla total vehicles produced times the value of autonomy and so now i got to thinking maybe i've been approaching this wrong maybe i shouldn't be only paying attention to tesla's vehicle production and then comparing tesla's vehicle production to other manufacturers but maybe the greatest threat to tesla is actually another autonomy producer well enter something called off-the-shelf autonomy systems in march of 2017 the israeli company named mobileye was acquired by intel mobilei was actually used in the 2015 and 2016 teslas for tesla autopilot hardware version 1.0 and in 2016 a tesla crashed into a semi truck while on autopilot here's a graphic from the new york times showing you what happened when the car approached a semi truck that had crossed in front of the tesla with autopilot active the car did not see the semi truck drove under the semi sheared off the top half of the car and well you know what else uh and then continued kind of driving on until it crashed and struck a power pole now rumor has it the driver was also watching harry potter while the car was on autopilot and this was a widely circulated story elon musk responded and believed he stated that he believed that because the truck was very white when the car approached the truck and the truck didn't have anything touching the ground in the middle of the truck which makes sense because the truck is elevated in the middle you know you got wheels in the front wheels in the back nothing in the middle elon musk thought that the sensors of the car didn't see any obstruction and saw a vertical obstruction and that maybe the autonomy system simply thought oh well there's something overhead there's nothing on the floor well that just must be a street sign car didn't stop boom bad day well in 2016 tesla ended its partnership with mobileye and that makes you wonder was that the end of mobileye well welcome to 2020.
tesla separated itself from mobilei in 2016 and tesla focused on building out its own autonomy system without the help of outside manufacturers however mobile eye didn't go away if anything it got better and stronger in fact i'm going to go ahead and pull up a video of mobileye now here's some footage of mobilized hardware and software going through a roundabout here's one going through an intersection i'll link this video down below but this is a 40 minute long video that i forexed some parts of and you can kind of get an idea that this car can park and can identify people getting out of the car somebody pulling out in front of the car watch this pedestrian here look at that it stops for them as they get in the intersection there it kind of makes you wonder if they planned all this but honestly it looks really good it dodged that truck that was stopped you know these are some things that the tesla just doesn't do yet and saying that as a tesla owner this is impressive this is a video to watch i'll link it below okay so what there's another company that has some autonomy like why does that matter well here's why it matters a lot remember the future value according to elon of tesla is based on tesla's autonomy times its production right of course there's energy and batteries and there are all these great things as well i'm not trying to minimize tesla remember i'm i'm tesla fanboy but i'm just trying to be critical and like i gotta be careful here and i'm going to give you a strategy in a moment but let's just look at a very simple formula value equals production times autonomy well if we now have multiple autonomous competitors and we divide the value of autonomy let's say by two because there's so much competition then what happens to value well value also goes down by two that's not good so we're not just looking at ev competition we're looking at autonomous competition and in my opinion the autonomous competition is actually what's much more valuable to tesla and more potentially dangerous now mobileye it's an off the shelf advanced driver assistance system the mobilize system is actually not a car company it's just a system that you can add on to cars and 25 automakers have decided to start manufacturing over 300 models of vehicles using mobile eyes autonomous technology it's literally like hey bmw you guys punted getting autopilot into your cars and punted getting your own technology no problem just license it from us and call it whatever you want now obviously it helps that tesla has their own in-house system they don't have to license it from other companies and maybe tesla can make money by licensing their product to other cars in the future if there's even a market left because mobile is partnering with everyone but stay tuned it's not just mobile eye but let me finish on mobile lab mobile eye has partnered with some of these cars just as an example the bmw series 3 and the x5 suv branded under bmw's driver assistance software the volkswagen passat and golf use mobileye and they're branded under vw travel assist the 2021 ford mustang and the 2021 f-150 from ford will use mobileye nissan's pro pilot 2.0 is mobileye and the chinese startup neo the pilot the es8 and the es6 all use mobileye and see what's interesting here is the more manufacturers start using mobilei the more it's likely that mobilei can actually start collecting more data than tesla can because if mobilei gets into many different manufacturers tesla only gets tesla vehicles tesla could potentially start falling behind on data collection and this off-the-shelf race for autonomous sort of softwares and devices is now actually getting even more competitive nvidia is partnering with lee otto a chinese ev company and qualcomm has started their own autonomous division as well called qualcomm's snapdragon ride platform also an off-the-shelf autonomous system in fact here's their marketing video they use radar technology and camera technology and it looks pretty good you could see that there is some serious competition coming to tesla and that's not good as a tesla investor these are just things i want to be aware of so how do we protect ourselves from that it looks like grand theft auto well folks aside from getting two free stocks with weeble checking out the courses down below and checking out the life insurance here's what i'm doing and this is this is big because it's a shift for me and i'm not gonna dive in monday morning on doing this i'm going to do some more research on these companies but here's what i'm very very tempted to do in order to hedge my tesla investment i am going to consider investing in nvidia intel and qualcomm these are three very large competitors in the automotive autonomy space automotive autonomy space uh and honestly all three of these could see some incredible profits if they keep garnering market share in this autonomous space again go back to what elon musk said elon musk said the value of he said in himself the value of tesla is production times autonomy well if i want to hedge tesla i'm happy with production at tesla i'm not really buying other car companies right now i haven't been convinced by other companies it certainly ain't going to be nicola but why not potentially invest in the other autonomous manufacturers as well so that's my encouragement to you consider hedging your tesla investments in nvidia intel and qualcomm now remember intel has been beat down dramatically lately for its failure to innovate as some say but hey maybe they're just a sleeping giant well there you have it please let me know what you think in the comments down below i'd love to hear your insights and what you think about this competition and this potential hedge and of course it's kind of the same industry so it's not exactly a real hedge but i think you all know what i mean let's call it diversity let me know your thoughts consider sharing the video if you liked it and folks we'll see in the next one you
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