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whether you like it or not radical transparency and algorithmic decision making is coming at you fast and it's going to change your life that's because it's now easy to take algorithms and embed them into computers and gather all that data that you're leaving on yourself all over the place and know what you're like and then direct the computers to interact with you in ways that are better than most people can well that might sound scary I've been doing this for a long time and I have found it to be wonderful my objective has been to have meaningful work and meaningful relationships with the people I work with and I've learned that I couldn't have that unless I had that radical transparency and that algorithmic decision making I want to show you why that is I want to show you how it works and I warn you that some of the things that I'm going to show you probably are a little bit shocking since I was a kid I've had a terrible Road memory and I didn't like following instructions I was no good at following instructions but I love to figure out how things work for myself when I was 12 I hated school but I fell in love with trading the markets I carried at the time earned about five dollars a bag and I took my catting money and I put it in the stock market and that was just because the stock market was hot at the time and the first company I bought was a company by the name of Northeast Airlines Northeast Airlines was the only company I heard of that was selling for less than five dollars a share and I figured I could buy more shares and if it went up I'd make more money so that was a dumb strategy right but I tripled my money I tripled my money because I got lucky the company was about to go bankrupt but some other company acquired it and I tripled my money and I was hooked and I thought this game is easy with time I learned this game as anything but easy in order to Be an Effective investor one has to bet against the consensus and be right and it's not easy to bet against the consensus and be right one has to bet against the consensus and be right because the consensus is built into the price and in order to be an entrepreneur a successful entrepreneur one has to bet against the consensus and be right I had to be an entrepreneur and an investor and what goes along with that is making a lot of painful mistakes so I made a lot of painful mistakes and with time my attitude about those mistakes began to change I began to think of them as puzzles that if I could solve the puzzles they would give me gems and the puzzles were what would I do differently in the future so I wouldn't make that painful mistake and the gems were principles that I would then write down so I would remember them that would help me in the future and because I wrote them down so clearly I could then eventually discovered I could then embed them into algorithms and those algorithms would be embedded in computers and the computers would make decisions along with me and so in parallel we would make these decisions and I could see how those decisions then compared with my own decisions and I could see that those decisions were a lot better and that was because the computer could make decision decisions much faster it could process a lot more information and it can process decisions much more less emotionally so it radically improved my decision making eight years after I started Bridgewater I had my greatest failure my greatest mistake it was it was late 1970s I was 34 years old and I had calculated that American Banks had lent much more money to emerging countries than those countries were going to be able to pay back and that we would have the greatest debt crisis since the Great Depression and with it an economic crisis and a big bear Market in stocks it was a controversial View at the time people thought it was kind of a crazy point of view but in August 1982 Mexico defaulted on its debt and a number of other countries followed and we had the greatest debt crisis since the Great Depression and because I had anticipated that I was asked to testify to Congress and appear on Wall Street week which was the show of the time just to give you a flavor if that I've got a clip here and you'll see me in there
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