저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
달리오는 미국의 제재와 달러 체제 변화로 달러 신뢰가 흔들리고 있으며, 부채 확대와 통화 가치 하락 국면이 1970년대와 유사하다고 진단한다. 역사적 사례로 1933년 금 태환 중단과 1971년 닉슨 쇼크를 들며, 그때마다 현금과 채권이 손실을 보고 실물·대체자산으로 자금이 이동했다고 설명한다. 지정학적으로는 무역·기술·자본 전쟁이 진행 중이며, 군사적 충돌 가능성도 커져 각국이 자급자족과 민족주의로 기울어 세계화가 축소된다고 주장한다. 주식시장은 전쟁기간에도 결국 현금흐름이 핵심이라고 보며, 특정 사건은 개별 업종(예: 방산·세금 관련주)에 영향을 준다고 언급한다. 달리오는 현금과 부채성 자산을 '나쁜 자산'으로 보고, 금·암호화폐·디지털 통화 등 대안 자산으로의 분산을 강조한다. 통화 측면에서 달러의 준비통화 지위가 도전받고 위안화 사용 확대와 인도-러시아 직접 결제 등 변화가 나타난다고 본다. 인플레이션 고착과 채권 매도가 금리 상승 압력을 키우고, 임금 협상 등으로 패러다임 전환이 자기강화적으로 진행된다고 전망한다. 종목별 가격 목표나 구체적 매수·매도 추천은 없으며, 방향성 예측은 주로 달러 가치 하락과 인플레이션 장기 지속에 관한 것이다. 발언은 1~3개월보다는 장기적 구조 변화에 초점이 맞춰져 있다.
다듬은 글
right now the U.S is imposing sanctions sanctions are it's a form of economic Warfare and it has a big implication for the dollar okay now others are trying to get out of the dollar system there's a dollar system that now is being uh changed India is dealing directly with Russia and holders of dollar denominated assets don't want to hold those dollar attitudes if they feel that they're going to be grabbed and so on so what's happening now has happened many times before and I learned this in my past uh because in 1971 I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and President Nixon gets on and he says um we're not going to give you the gold that the dollar is backed by and we had a devaluation it took me by surprise I walked on the floor of the stock exchange I thought it was going to go down a lot it went up a lot and that's because I never experienced the currency devaluation I found the same exact thing when I studied history same exact announcement took place on March 5th 1933 by Roosevelt and had the same effect so I understood then on how history before me or was important studying the Great Depression allowed me in Bridgewater to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis if I didn't study that what's happening now is very relevant the past is a guide to what's happening now as we are approaching a challenging of the world order in other words a great power challenging another there is an increased likelihood of some kind of War there are five kinds of Wars there's a trade War a technology War a geopolitical influence or a capital War which we're in the midst of and then there's a military war and those things Drive countries to be self-sufficient and independent and as a result globalization diminishes and nationalism increases it's not the stock market stock market so it's in the the book it takes you through the stock markets during war periods and so the only thing that matters for stocks is the cash flows and as you get into the conflict that's a different story if you begin to see as it progresses those that are affected by the individual events have an effect for example tax stocks but anyway in answer to the question how does it affect the markets it affects the value of money most fundamentally like what we're seeing now is that the value of money when you run very large deficits you have to spend a lot you have to spend a lot on uh social programs you have to spend a lot on the defense you have to spend a lot on environmental programs and so on and so when you spend a lot more money than you earn then you have to print money to make up that difference to make the purchases and then that devalues money and so it's like the examples I gave you of the two currency devaluations that you had before 1971 led to the inflationary period of the 1970s and so you have the stock market yes the stock market goes up in other things but cash is trash and people then begin to learn that the bonds that they're holding have negative returns and it starts to change the value of money the value of dollars and so on so money goes into other assets it produces a more of an inflation and you start to enter a certain type of environment and the environment that we're in is beginning to be very much like the of the 1970s there's two ways of dealing with debt you pay it back in hard money or you pay it back in soft money you pay it back in hard money and you have um a problem you have a depression so throughout history whenever that was done paid back in hard money eventually that was abandoned and you print money that was what 71 was that was what March 1933 was and so I think that what you have to think about is the value of money how much money does one have in debt instruments and do you want to own that as an asset I think they're Bad Assets and then how do you diversify and the system also has to deal with what is money is the dollar going to remain the same sort of Reserve currency and then you see the development of alternative monies we're seeing a variety I think different types of money will compete with each other in the environment we're in maybe it's crypto maybe it's uh maybe it's gold maybe it's um other things maybe the digital or MMB competes with the US dollar we're going to come into an environment think about how much money is being stored in debt instruments those dead assets think about how poor those returns are so that kind of a shift I think is very important all currencies have a lot of debt so when you look at one relative to the other there will be a lot of printing I mean currency equals debt now when you hold a currency you're holding a debt instrument and so all of those will decline in value relative to other things now will the dollar decline more than other currencies it's almost certain that we're going to come into this environment we're in this environment and there's there's a shifting of those currencies so you're going to see more of China's RAM and B being used you're seeing India have a direct link with Russia on the currency so we're an important change in the currency but how that is the store of wealth is a different question so a currency is a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth and its storehold of wealth is now a problem particularly for the dollar but it's also a problem for other countries so that's why you have inflation as money goes into other things and the cost of borrowing is so low relative to the inflation rate then it encourages the borrowing of money and the sale of of money in other words not holding Financial assets like that so that's yes I think you're changing the nature of what money is and what the dollar is as a storehold of wealth we're beginning a paradigm shift a paradigm shift is a shift from a mindset and positioning of that mindset to another mindset and another positioning of that so for example the mindset that we were in was that you have low inflation and when you're owning bonds and you're owning cash or you are operating one way and you don't worry about that and companies don't worry about it in their inventories having larger inventories or homeowners don't worry about inflation as much in the purchases of the houses and so on once that shift begins it causes a reinforcing Dynamic it's like everybody is long bonds we've been in a 40-year bull market in Bots and so it's been fine to have and when that shift starts to take place you see behavioral shifts that reinforce that cycle in the Paradigm so for example when there is the selling of bonds that makes it more inflationary in and of itself because the amount of debt that has to be sold is not just the deficit but also the amount that debt that's being sold is those bonds so now interest rates have to rise a lot or the Federal Reserve has got to come in there and buy more and then you get wages people make wage settlements and such things so a paradigm shift is beginning to take place and that will be also self-reinforcing and it's taking place in this context of the conflict which then creates the breakdown of efficient systems each country wants to be self-sufficient it needs to to protect itself
Comments 0