저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 경제가 붕괴 중이라는 자극적 제목과 달리, 본 영상의 핵심은 미·중 갈등 심화와 그에 따른 인플레이션·스태그플레이션 위험, 그리고 실물·자산 중심의 방어적 자산배분 조언이다. 미·중 관계: 중국이 향후 미국과 비슷한 강대국 위치에 오를 것으로 보며, 무역·기술·지정학·자본·군사의 5가지 형태의 전쟁이 동시에 진행 중이라고 진단. 공급망 리스크: 미국 제조업 수입의 약 22%가 중국산이며, 중국과의 디커플링이 현실화되면 인플레이션과 공급망 비효율이 크게 확대된다고 주장. 중앙은행은 이에 따른 고통을 조정해야 하며 2023년 무렵 스태그플레이션 우려를 언급. 화폐 가치: 받는 금리가 인플레이션율보다 낮으면 현금·화폐는 좋은 가치 저장 수단이 아니라고 설명. 향후 10년간 인플레이션 헤지 자산(예: 인플레이션 연계 채권, 실물자산) 탐색이 시대의 핵심 질문이라고 언급. 금·비트코인 등 구체적 답은 제시하지 않음. 실물 자산 선호: 주거용 주택, 자녀 교육, 식품·의료처럼 필요한 것을 미리 확보하는 방식의 저축을 제안. 이런 수요를 충족하는 기초 산업(meat and potatoes 업종)에 주목할 것을 권장. 지역 선호: 경상수지 흑자, 대외 자산이 부채보다 많은 국가, 분쟁 위험이 낮은 국가가 좋다고 판단. 중국 리스크: (1) 지방정부·금융기관·부동산에 번진 부채 위기(부동산이 경제의 약 25%, 가계 저축의 대부분), (2) 자유 시장 체제와 '공동부유'에 대한 불확실성, 빅테크 규제 우려, (3) 코로나 이후 상황, (4) 인구 고령화(65세 이상 약 3.5억 명)와 한자녀 정책의 연금 부재 문제, (5) 기후·물 문제를 꼽음. 투자 관점: 중국 투자는 일정 비중 필요하며, 장기적으로는 낙관적이라고 봄. 다만 특정 산업에서는 주요 경쟁자이므로 주의 필요. 지도부 인사 변화(일요일 예정)를 주시할 것을 언급. 구체 종목·지수에 대한 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
there's a sense in the United States that they are a growing threat it is inevitable that for the foreseeable future that China will be a comparable power let's call it stronger in some ways less strong in other ways and that it is likely that it will pass the United States if we have a conflict with China that has enormous economic implications it's all a very risky situation if we're dealing with um the external conflict issue that'll play a role you're you're having globally a kind of War there are five kinds of War there's a trade War there's a technology War there's a war for geopolitical influence in different areas there is a capital war and there's a military war so now because you have a conflict between China and the United States in terms of all the things we know about you have a a technology war going on there that kind of Technology War also means that they want every country wants self-sufficiency they don't want to be cut off because you can be cut off so so you get into an economic war with um China but let me make the the point which is that um 22 of all manufactured goods Imports come from China and if you got into a situation where China was like um Russia we say we don't want to have imports from China and so on that economic impact would be an enormous impact in terms of inflation and goods and services and so on you have um this isolation and the breaking down of Supply chains and the inefficiencies associated with that so though that's the basically the functional causes of the inflation rate and then the central banks have to balance the pains so stagflation particularly coming into I think 23 you know money is a medium of exchange or a storehold of wealth and it's not a good storehold of wealth when the interest rate you're receiving is much less than the inflation rate so that's what you're seeing happen well before we get to China let me pick up on exactly that point given what you're saying about the world in terms of inflation and the the reduction in the value of the currencies around the world where is the right store hold the world I mean is it gold is it Bitcoin what where do you go to defend yourself against inflation this is uh this is the question of our time we will over the next 10 years certainly I think be trying to find the answer of what is the storehold of wealth because usually it it's a money and then a debt instrument in holding that money but as that goes down then there is the question of what it is what is that currency and storehold of wealth so we're in that place it's always handy to be the thing that you is your buying power you're going to see it more in inflation hedge assets so like if you're thinking about a bond it's better to think about an inflation hedge Bond than to think about uh you know tips or inflation hedge assets along those lines and I think that you're going to see then uh the parts of the economy so like I think basically if I was saving what would I want to save it I'd like to save in the things I know that I'm going to need so I would like to save in like my residence my house I would like to save if I could pay forward my kids education pay forward the food or the health care that I can and so on I would want to save in those things to buy forward the things I need most fundamentally I think if we start to think that way not only in terms of the investment but what what are even the meat and potatoes type of businesses that are doing that and then also I think that you have to think geographically where is best in the world okay that and I'll I'll say that best in the world are countries in which they're earning more than they're spending and their balance sheets are have more assets and liabilities on them that they're civil with each other and then they're not in conflict and they're they're not in risk of an international War it's basically those fundamentals and then I would say I want to be clear in making um that from my getting to know the leaders and I don't know she but I know those around them that they are reasonable people and one and there's going to be a change in leadership that we're going to see on Sunday and you're going to in my opinion you're going to bring reasonable people into that there's a culture there's that and then there's but there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot of problems so let me rattle off the uncertainties and the problems that are temporary that could be temporary but they could be longer lasting the first is they have a debt crisis that in my opinion they've allowed to go too far into the bones of the economy so it's affecting local governments it's affecting financial institutions it starts with real estate real estate is 25 percent of their economy approximately and then the majority of savings so it has a wealth effect it has a negative and it's passing through the system so that's one second is that there's this question of are they still in favor of free enterprise and the market system and what is common prosperity mean and so on quite a lot of confusion regarding that from my uh operating there they uh they don't want to mess with that system very much um she doesn't um because when they did some things like shutting down some of the tech companies because they want to break up the Menard the uh these large companies they also did minority uh things anyway so let me go number three covet okay number four is demographics okay demographics is particularly important in China because of the culture in China as well as the one child policy you know for um the family takes care of the family and so the tradition is that the children take care of the adults at in old age they don't have a well-developed pension system and so what happens is with the one child policy a husband and wife has four parents that they have to take care of system can deal with that and so that's a main thing it relates to covet you know they have something like 350 million people over 65.
so if they don't deal with so we have covet so you have a number of these problems you have a a climate problem and a water problem in China so China's got a lot of those problems to deal with but the real question and we we all can have problems the real question is where is that Beacon is that Beacon and we're going to learn more about that based on who's appointed to what jobs and also what statements are made is that Beacon continuing to do the things that raise productivity and inventiveness and so on so we're going to learn more but I think that as far as investing in China China is the um if you take certain industries it's it's you know main competitor but it's neither should know in my opinion uh not you have to have a look you have to have a certain amount in China I think the longer term picture in China is still bright because I know the people and I know the culture and I think it's good but they have uh major issues
Comments 0