저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 연준이 금리 인상 속도를 조절하면 시장이 반등할 수 있으나, 경기침체 위험 때문에 지속 가능한 상승인지는 불확실하다는 진단. 금리·연준 전망: 6월과 7월 두 차례 50bp 인상 후 금리 약 2%에서 일시 정지가 유력하다고 봄. 이후는 데이터 의존적. 금리 시장 지표: 10년 기대인플레이션(브레이크이븐)이 4월 말 고점 대비 하락, 시장이 인플레 완화를 반영하고 있다고 해석. 회사채 스프레드: 국채 대비 회사채 스프레드가 35~40일간 축소되어 자금조달 여건 개선 신호로 봄. 단기 시장 전망: 금요일 인플레이션 지표가 양호하면 연준이 긴축 완화 여지를 얻어 '붐' 랠리 가능성. 다만 일시적 데드캣 바운스 가능성도 언급. 경기 전망: 주택대출 금리 상승, 스타트업 비용 절감, 기업 잉여현금흐름 중시 추세를 들어 침체(또는 이미 진행 중이라는 견해) 우려 제기. 연준 평가: 2021년 하반기 인플레 경고 때 QE를 중단했어야 했으며 그 실기가 자산버블과 급격한 긴축을 초래했다고 비판. 빌 애크먼의 공격적 금리인상 주장은 과도하다고 반박. 기업 실적 리스크: 메타·구글 등 '싸 보이는' 밸류에이션이 실적 하향 조정 시 착시일 수 있고, 실적 전망 하향이 시장 추가 하락의 핵심 위험이라고 지적. 스냅 사례 언급. 거시 메시지: 연준 양적완화 10조 달러가 생산 증가 없이 물가와 자산버블을 키웠으며, 돈 찍어내기로 부를 만들 수 없다는 주장.
다듬은 글
growth is going to be moderate that that gives a lot of ammo for the fed to kind of take their foot off the um off the gas here and in that case markets will go boom we still had some amount of rate uncertainty from the fed i think people weren't sure how aggressively they were going to hike but by early this week it was pretty clear there's going to be two 50-point hikes one in june and one in july and then effectively a pause because then the fed funds rate will be at around two percent and everything from there will probably be path and data dependent okay that's effectively what they said now i think the the markets had actually already started to see that writing on the wall so if you go back to you know one of our favorite measures which is the 10-year break even it's effectively rolled over which meant that you know which means that from the highs in sort of late april it started to come down which says that you know they were thinking that you know the inflation was not going to be as bad in the back half of the year and then the second is that corporate credit which is really what matters in some ways to the fed because that's where they can intervene what is the spread above treasuries that a company can issue debt when it goes crazy and it goes up it means oh no the cost of capital is going up that's going to be hard for companies to raise money they may have to lay people off they may need to get into cost cutting mode right that's what goes through everybody's mind but that's also now about 35 and 40 days rolled over which means that the gap has started to shrink you know between the us treasury price and what you know decent corporates can can issue debt at so it looks like we are set up for potentially a decent little rally here the problem is is it a rally that is sustainable or is it a rally that's basically what we call a dead cat bounce or a bear market rally where you know you just get some one or two weeks of relief before the thing spears down again and we're not gonna know although tomorrow on friday there's going to be a really important set of inflation data that gets released and i think everybody's going to be sweating these details so right now we're in a moment of pause and there is the potential if this data comes back as reasonably good which means prices are you know not escalating as much as we thought um inflation is not going to be as bad growth is going to be moderate that that gives a lot of ammo for the fed to kind of take their foot off the um off the gas here and in that case markets will go boom well the costs of um buying a home are going way up because home loans are now more expensive so that's going to factor into all sorts of consumer purchases anything that's financed can be more expensive you're also seeing companies starting to slow down spending uh really starting to slam on the brakes we see it in startup land startups are all slashing costs right now but that's eventually going to percolate up to big companies too you saw dara's memo basically when he got back from wall street remember he published that a couple weeks ago saying we need to sharpen our pencils cut everything uh what wall street is looking for now is free cash flow um so it seems to me like we're headed into a pretty serious downturn or recession here i mean i've been saying we're in recession for months um the the the you know the tricky thing for the fed is that they don't have a lot of good options because we have a lot of recession indicators blinking red right now at the same time inflation is still high so they're kind of caught between a rock and a hard place i think what the fed should have done is in 2020 hindsight is back last summer we first got that shock cpi print remember it was like 5.1 percent seemed to come out of the blue because for years and years we've been talking about deflation nobody thought inflation was a problem all of a sudden we got that 5.1 percent print they were in total denial about it they just dismissed it saying that inflation was transitory and you know yellen said the same thing and so basically everyone just ignored the data for six months and what they should have done was stop qe right then and there they could have taken a little bit of time to think out you know a rate increase strategy but they were still basically engaging in qe for nine months after that you know first inflation warning and if they had stopped qe there then we wouldn't have had this asset bubble in the second half of last year that's when it inflated the most and we could have had more of a soft landing unfortunately now they let the they kept inflating and really until the end of q1 and they've yanked away the punch bowl so violently that i think the real economy's gonna go into recession so that's where we are right now i mean i don't know what that what the right answer is now given that we're in this you know almost stagflationary position listen the fed said two really important things this week they said number one our communications have been helpful in shifting market expectations what that means the fed is the air traffic control they said to the markets at the beginning of the year you're 90 degrees off runway heading get your ass back on runway heading it was a slap in the face to markets and it was a radical adjustment now you hear the fed in these little statements this week they said hey we're well positioned this year to assess the effects of policy firming in the back half so they're saying we're going to hit it with 50 50 and then we're going to take a look so now think of it as air traffic control you're two degrees to the left you're two degrees to the right they're steering us on runway heading i don't think the fed wants to do anything at this moment to lose credibility in the inflation fight we're going to get 50 we're going to get an another 50.
but they're doing what they want to do which is keeping markets sufficiently tight right they wanted to take the crypto market down they wanted to take all the excessive risk in the stock market down right you're absolutely right the inventory of 350 000 homes spiked from four months to nine months right used car prices are rolling over the last three months all the things they needed to do they're doing right they need to stay the course however the hyperventilation this week by bill ackman on twitter that the fed needs to be doing radically more that somehow we need to be raising rates to six seven eight percent in order to squash inflation to me seems highly misdirected and totally out of touch with the fact that on layoffs.fyi they've already announced 750 companies that are announcing layoffs right the market is getting the drill i i totally agree with this i think we're in a we're we're in a pretty reasonable place here the real the real question is now what do you need to take the market lower and this is more of a nuance but you know when you look at companies that are now quote-unquote cheap right let's take an example like you um you know well we hear a lot about google or facebook right people say my gosh this is cheap because if you run a screen on it it's like 10 11 12 times price to earnings well the price you know because you can look on the screen the real question is are the earnings right and the thing that can take the market lower is if you actually think earnings are modeled incorrectly right so we saw this week as well snap i mean completely just blew themselves 46 down intraday yesterday i think i just want to say something about one day they have the most incredible propensity to self-emulate on earnings calls than any other company i've ever seen there's probably been three times no less than three times over the last four years where i don't know whether it's just poorly scripted or not well rehearsed or the people that are helping evan get ready for these things but these are disastrous calls you know facebook's had a couple in this lifetime but snap consistently probably once every 18 months will do this anyways the thing just completely implodes the stock implodes by 48 or something and then it you know rolls over to companies like facebook and google who then are off eight or ten percent my point in telling you this story is that if you think facebook and google just as an example again are cheap at 10 times well you better hope that the earnings are right because the earnings are actually wrong that's actually 27 times in 19 times so you know i'm making these numbers up to give you the example because the earnings are fundamentally wrong so that's the risk now that's left in the market in my opinion that could take it much much lower is if that you know all of this slowdown really contracts spend and the earnings are actually not accurate the forecasted earnings will need to be revised over the next two or three quarters and that's where we will probably see the low if however growth is muted and the fed can as brad said it's a really good analogy now just course correct by degrees you know a degree here a degree there we've probably consolidated the lows we had 10 trillion dollars of money printing right why they do that they thought that they could stimulate our way out of this covid recession that they had induced with lockdowns in any event the point is they thought they could stimulate economic activity by printing money and maybe cynically politically they thought it'd be good for them in the midterms what actually happened that 10 trillion goes into the economy but there's no corresponding increase in the output of goods and services so two things happen first price levels rise and we get inflation and second we get an asset bubble in the stock market and then the way both those things sort of come crashing down to earth is the fed looks at this inflation and suddenly has to jack up interest rates that pops the asset bubble it vaporizes something like 14 of global wealth and then simultaneously workers feel a lot poorer because their wages haven't kept up with inflation so this whole idea that you can just print money as a way to create wealth and prosperity i hope what we take away from this i think recession that we're going into is that is not a viable strategy the only thing that creates wealth in a society is the output of goods and services that people want and you just can't try to sort of play games with that by creating phantom the sort of phantom money that doesn't represent a real increase in good services or protein
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