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right we bought basically short 8.4 billion of credit default swaps um related to mortgages or financial companies and i was extremely confident in the outcome were your investors as confident i know for sure that some of them thought i lost my mind it's remarkable there there are investors who made tens of millions off this and uh were still pretty upset michael barry the man that saw the housing bubble coming in the us in the early 2000s the man that made over 800 million buying credit default swaps uh the man that earned a spot in michael lewis's book the big short and was played by christian bale in the movie adaptation it's kind of funny you know at the end of that movie michael barry it says that he he doesn't really invest anymore and he just focuses on one commodity which is water hmm that line in the movie didn't age very well because barry is well and truly back in the world of the stock market and uh he even reopened his fun with scion asset management being born from the ashes of scion capital now one thing you might not know if you don't follow the stock market super closely is that although we never see interviews with michael bury and we also don't see him do any kind of like podcasts or q a's or anything like that throughout 2020 and 2021 many of us were still able to sneakily keep up with his thoughts and opinions on the stock market through his twitter profile that yes has the name cassandra no joke that is the real guy on his real twitter account but even though i don't have great interview clips and lecture snippets to show you like normal what i wanted to do in this video is summarize all of barry's recent thoughts on investing and inflation and state of the markets to try and decipher what his advice what his message would be going uh into 2022 so what would firstly michael bury's advice be right now regarding the current state of the stock market well like many super smart investors that i follow barry is certainly of the opinion that the us market is extremely hot right now he sees big overvaluation and he isn't afraid to call it out either november last year he said he sees more speculation than the 1920s more overvaluation than the 1990s and more geopolitical and economic strife than the 1970s so no ifs or buts there and even looking at a pretty basic measure like the schiller p we can see this the chillip is kind of like a big p e ratio for the whole market so the higher the number the more investors are currently paying for the s p 500's earnings and right now investors are paying 36 times the average inflation adjusted earnings the s p 500 to own it crazy considering the average chillip is about 1617 and that's even considering the fact that the s p 500's earnings went up substantially last year so no wonder he's so confident on that prediction he said back in june quote people are always asking me what is going on in the markets it is simple greatest speculative bubble of all time in all things by two orders of magnitude and he's been of this opinion for quite a while now back in 2019 he did an email interview where he explained why etfs were in bubble territory and his hypothesis it made sense low interest rates means money gushes into the stock market and with the rise in popularity of passive investing or index fund investing money floods into the top 500 companies in america not on each business's merit but because people are just investing in the index because it's going up and i mean that's how bubbles form when the inflation of the stock prices of the underlying businesses are no longer based on fundamentals but during that very same interview he also said that he was still able to find value but it was in international markets for example he said quote it's not that hard in japan to find simple extreme undervaluation low earnings multiple or low free cash flow multiple in many cases the company might have significant cash or stock holdings that make up a lot of the stock price so it's kind of weird he's not really a doom and gloom kind of guy in fact he admits that there is still value to be had but it's elsewhere but definitely for those investing in the us barry thinks things are getting very hairy for everyone just across the board passive investors and active investors alike so if you want deals it's probably best to look elsewhere right now so i think that would be his best advice for investing in 2022 and to be honest barry's tweets alongside you know monish propriet lectures charlie munger's q a sessions ray dalio's interviews they've all had a consistent theme of finding better investing opportunities abroad outside the us so maybe it's not such a crazy idea to be looking internationally as long as you can understand the businesses you're analyzing i think that's barry's take on the state of the markets but of course there's another big issue playing out in 2022 inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation inflation and boy oh boy does barry have some things to say there as well now if you've been following my content over the past year then you already know this but maybe for those that haven't seen michael bury is a big believer we're going to get crunched by inflation in the next 12 months or so he actually called it back in february 2021 he said to prepare for inflation because of the reopening and because of all the stimulus that was happening he said the us government is inviting inflation with trillions of dollars of money printing plus reopening boosting demand as employee and supply chain costs skyrocket and for context this was the annual inflation rate in the us back in february 2021 when he made this call 1.7 and this is what followed a progressive rise in the annual inflation rate all the way up to now seven percent i mean what can i say he definitely nailed that one didn't he and i think it's kind of funny because he knows it too he tweeted in november quote inflation it's not just reopening anymore folks not that anyone could have seen this coming so bit of an i told you so moment there from barry but uh but all through last year he was talking about inflation and honestly he was betting on it too last year he actually bet against the 20-year us treasury bonds now the reasoning here is that when inflation rises the federal reserve should step in and raise interest rates to pull it back down and then when interest rates rise bond prices fall so barry decided to bet that the ishares 20-year treasury bond etf whatever it was would fall and his thesis was correct but because the fed decided not to act early the trade probably didn't make him any money now he's since abandoned those bets against the bonds but that bet and his recent tweets definitely still tells you that he is certainly expecting inflation to continue and importantly he's expecting interest rates to rise well what do we take from this well i don't think we need to take any action on any of this stuff we don't need to copy as trades or buy puts against the ishares bond etf but like i said in my recent video about warren buffett's position going into 2022 we just need to be aware that in the next year or so we may see some pretty steep interest rate hikes if inflation continues to buy it so i think we just need to be mentally ready for the possibility of interest rates going up you know make sure you're not going to get into any strife personally by say interest payments on any loans you have getting suddenly more expensive or by the possibility of bond prices falling or by the stock market potentially coming under a lot of pressure so i think that's what we can take away from barry's current thesis on inflation and they're really the three big things that are going to affect investors in 2022 overvalued markets inflation and interest rates and i kind of find it funny that despite someone like warren buffett and michael bury being really quite different investors you know when we take the time to analyze their thoughts and what they've been saying coming into 2022 we kind of get to the same conclusion on a lot of these points and i think the reason for that is that these two investors have one key thing in common and it's that they're very rational in their approach over time they have they've mastered the investing temperament needed to do very well in the market so they're the main points that i wanted to bring up but before i finished up the video i just wanted to draw your attention to barry's starts on another few investing issues that are definitely less important but no doubt will continue to grab headlines again in 2022 so firstly in terms of cryptocurrency uh barry is definitely bearish on crypto last year he pretty much continuously held the opinion that bitcoin is just a big speculative bubble and also warned that the crypto markets might be propped up on a lot of borrowed money a situation obviously wouldn't end very well when interest payments start increasing on that borrowed money you know personally i don't actually know how you can determine the amount of leverage in a particular cryptocurrency or a particular asset but barry is definitely of the belief that crypto is a big bubble waiting to pop and it's being fueled by leverage another big topic barry has been discussing uh has been the meme stocks as well the gamestops amc's uh and if you don't know barry actually owned gamestop in 2020 but unfortunately for him he sold his entire position by the 31st of december 2020 just weeks before the big short squeeze at the end of january 2021 but for a little while now he's actually been warning you know the people that are still holding the bag that this situation will likely end in disaster it was actually in july last year he did an email interview where he said quote i don't know when meme stocks such as this will crash such as gamestop but we probably don't have to wait too long as i believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme and wall street has jumped on the coattails we're running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon and i know a lot of people are saying you know you don't need new people to jump on the bandwagon we just need the shorts to cover and that will spike the share price but the truth is barry was definitely right here the bandwagon just isn't there anymore and we're already seeing even over the past few weeks people are losing interest and abandoning ship which is just by itself driving the share price down you know gme gamestop is now down over 50 from its november high amc is down 71 from its short squeeze high so i have to agree with michael barry on this one i think his gloomy prediction for meme stocks will probably age pretty well in 2022 so it's definitely a speculative area that personally i'm avoiding but overall guys that's barry's thoughts on the big issues in the market for 2022 please leave a like and subscribe if you enjoyed that would really help me out it helps the channel grow and i would really really appreciate it but that'll do this for today guys if you're interested in how i go about my investing passive or active check out profit full links down in the description below check out new money clips if you want short form new money content as well but guys that will do us for today hope you enjoyed the video and i'll see you guys in the next one this video is brought to you by sharesight sick of tracking your performance manually track capital gains dividends and currency fluctuations easily and when it comes to tax time have everything you need ready to go with just a click of a button try sharesight for free or use the referral link in the description to get four months free when you sign up to an annual plan
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