저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 은퇴 발표와 현금 보유(3,480억 달러) 배경을 분석. 관세는 경제적 전쟁 행위이며 미국 재정적자가 우려 요인이라는 버핏 발언을 소개. 최근 하락장은 주로 매그니피센트 7 중심이며 S&P500 연초 대비 약 -5% 수준. 버크셔는 장부가 1.69배, PER 24배로 과거 매수 기준(1.2배) 대비 고평가이므로 현 시점 투자 매력은 낮다고 판단. 채널 측 무료 강의 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Last week, the greatest investor of all time, Warren Buffett, grabbed all the headlines after Berser's annual investor meeting by announcing his intention to step down as CEO of Berser after 60 years leading the company. In addition to this important but already expected news, Buffett took advantage of his last annual meeting with investors to talk about the current uncertain situation of the stock markets and the economy, where he didn't mince words and called the tariffs an act of war, in addition to again defending the record levels of cash that Bersir has.
It makes sense that Buffett has been selling stocks and not investing during the recent weeks of sharp declines. Bigger falls are coming, and that's why he's being so patient. In this video, I'm going to explain all the reasons that have led Buffett to this inaction in his portfolio, as well as explain what he thinks about tariffs, the current state of the stock markets, and we're also going to analyze, of course, the future of Berkshire Haw, whose shares fell more than 6% this week after the news broke of the major investor's withdrawal .
So give the video a big like and let's get started. The most important news revealed at the end of the annual meeting was the announcement of Buffett's succession as CEO of B Hattawe. Buffett will hand over the reins to Greg Abel as CEO of the company on January 1, 2026. Buffett leaves a legacy that is difficult to debate for his successor, since Bersay 's shares have appreciated by 5,502,284% since he took over.
Or in other words, Buffett has achieved an annualized return of 20% over the last 60 years, far surpassing the SP500 during this same period which generated 39.54%, that is, 10.4% annually. To give you an idea of the magnitude of this, imagine an investor who in 1965 invested $100 in Vers Hawe, right at the moment Buffet took over the company.
Do you know how much that person's investment will be worth 60 years from now? Their initial investment was $100 and today it would be $5,300,000. Buffett's impending departure has generated many doubts and has caused the stock price to fall by more than 6% in the last week. At the end of this video, I'll give you my opinion on whether this represents an opportunity to invest in Bershire or if, on the contrary, it's better to move on and look at another company.
But before we move on to that assessment, let's analyze Buffett's latest moves and statements about the current state of the stock markets. One of the most shocking headlines from this meeting was that Bafeta has once again reached record effective levels in Berch Hattawe. The company currently has over $348 billion in liquidity, a figure never before seen in its history.
During the meeting, Buffett clearly explained why he is letting that money accumulate in short-term fixed income instead of putting it to work in stocks. And his answer was direct. We're not seeing anything that excites us enough to invest on a large scale. This is truly surprising considering the substantial declines we have seen over the past few weeks, with the S&P 500 correcting by nearly 19% and the Nasdaq exceeding those declines by 23%.
However, despite these declines, Buffett has not seen enough value in current prices to act or make a decision that would truly tip the scales in that large amount of liquidity. Buffett is indicating something that should concern us with this massive accumulation of cash. The truth is, if you know Buffett, you'll understand that's not the case.
In his own words, Buffett said, "We prefer to have cash in the bank rather than buy something we don't understand or that is not within our price range." This is a message that Buffett has repeated for decades, but now, with more than $348 billion uninvested, it carries enormous weight. But if we really analyze those falls, it's simply another example of how faithful he is to his principles, specifically the principle of the circle of competence.
Let me explain. If we analyze the latest drop in the SP500, we can see that what has actually fallen is not the total of the SP500. but the magnificent seven, since the fall of the remaining 493 companies so far this year is only at a drop of -0.3%, while the accumulated drop of the magnificent ones is -14.7%.
If we analyze Buffett's portfolio , we will see that of the magnificent seven, he only has positions in two of these companies. Apple, which currently represents 28.12% and which it has been reducing for several quarters, and Amazon, in which it has an insignificant position and which only represents 0.82% of the total.
Buffett only invests in what he truly understands, and he has often explained that he doesn't invest in many of these businesses because they are outside his circle of competence. Therefore, if in these recent downturns the truly interesting opportunities have come from companies that he says he doesn't understand, it's normal that we haven't seen a buying action like we might have , since perhaps we are people who understand those businesses better or that fall more within our circle of competence.
What he did talk about, and with a forcefulness unusual even for him, was the impact of the tariffs. Although he did not directly mention Trump, his words left no room for doubt. Tariffs are an act of economic warfare. He expressed this in front of thousands of shareholders who attended the event in Omaha.
Buffett was not only referring to the recent tariffs imposed by the United States on China or vice versa, but to the general risk of entering into a dynamic of trade retaliation between major powers. In their opinion, these measures not only harm international trade, but also erode global confidence and could end up seriously affecting supply chains and consumers.
He also warned about the consequences of using tariffs as a political tool. According to Buffett, it may seem like a quick fix or an effective pressure tactic, but ultimately it creates instability and uncertainty, which is something that markets hate. Another point that Bafet addressed, and which generated considerable concern among the attendees, was the United States' fiscal deficit.
Although he tried to maintain a cautious tone, he made clear his concern about the rate at which the country is accumulating debt and literally stated, "The United States can do many things, but it cannot continue to spend infinitely more than it takes in without consequences." Buffett warned that although the United States remains the world's strongest economy, the uncontrolled growth of that deficit could end up affecting the stability of the dollar and international confidence in US debt.
He even hinted that if this trend is not reversed at some point, we could see negative effects on both inflation and long-term interest rates. Even so, and true to form, Buffett said that concerns would cloud his long-term outlook despite his current caution and the risks he sees in the short term, such as tariffs, the deficit, or the lack of clear opportunities.
And he again expressed deep optimism about the future of the United States as the best place to invest. In his own words he said, "Never bet against America." A message he has repeated for decades and which he emphasized again even amidst this environment of uncertainty. Buffett emphasized that times of greatest uncertainty are paradoxically often the ones that offer the best investment opportunities for those who know how to wait, have conviction, and know what they are doing.
Furthermore, he wanted to send a very clear message to small investors. Patience is a key virtue in the markets. At a time when many are looking for quick results or getting caught up in the media noise, B recalled that great opportunities often appear when pessimism reigns. You have to be willing to act when everyone else is paralyzed by fear.
That's what stood out, and we all need to remember that. This principle, which has guided his investments for more than half a century, is once again relevant in a context where volatility has returned in recent weeks and where Buffett encouraged investors to remain calm, focus on solid businesses, and avoid impulsive decisions, because, as he reminded them, money is made by waiting, not by constantly moving.
Before moving on to Bercher's assessment, I'd like to remind you of something important regarding everything Buffett has said, especially about downturns and volatility. This year the SP500 has fallen by as much as 19% in recent weeks. In the last 45 years there have been 34 intra-annual drops averaging 14.1%.
This year the market is only down by -5% and it will probably be one of those years, in my opinion, that ends in positive territory. Downturns and volatility are a natural part of investing. The only thing you need to take advantage of this is the knowledge to understand that the price is not the real value of the shares and that our goal is simply to buy shares at the lowest possible price relative to that intrinsic value, which in many cases is not even affected; the market simply offers us a great opportunity to invest in the best businesses in the world.
If you don't know how to determine a company's intrinsic value , don't worry, because I'm going to give you a completely free 8-hour course where I'll teach you everything you need to analyze any company. I'll also teach you how to analyze the management teams that run them, develop the necessary investment psychology to overcome moments of panic and volatility, and many other essential qualities for every investor to get off to a good start.
I assure you that you will be successful in your investments. Simply click on the link you'll see in the description and first comment of this video and I'll personally send it to you via WhatsApp. In the last week many of you have written to me asking what to do with your Bershire shares or whether the drop of more than 6% after the announcement of Buffett's succession represents an investment opportunity.
The first thing I want to make clear is that Buffett's succession does not imply a drastic change in the way the company is managed. Gregabel, who will take over as CEO on January 1, 2026, has been working closely with Buffe for many years and fully shares his philosophy of prudence, long-term focus, and decentralized management.
In fact, Buffett has made it clear that Abel shares his vision for the company, so in operational terms we shouldn't expect a revolution or drastic changes. However, that doesn't mean some things won't change , specifically the stock investment aspect , which has historically been under the direct control of Buffett Manager, and this could be managed differently.
We don't know if Gregabel will make decisions on his own or aggressively delegate to current managers Ted Westler and Tods. And most importantly, we don't know if future performance will be comparable to that of recent decades, which is very difficult. Furthermore, in my opinion, Berser's business no longer has as much growth potential as it once did.
Buffett himself acknowledged years ago that Vers was so large that it was very difficult to find opportunities significant enough to move the needle on the results. He even went so far as to say that investors might feel somewhat disappointed with the company's future growth, precisely for that reason.
And if we add to that the analysis of its current valuation, we must be very cautious. Historically, Buffett believed that a multiple of 1.2 times the company's book value was a fair multiple or valuation for repurchasing Berser shares. However, as you can see in this chart, Bershier is currently trading above 1.69 times book value, well above the 1.2 times level.
The same applies if we look at the PER ratio. With a multiple of 24 times normalized earnings for the next 12 months. This metric is also above its historical average and close to the highs of the last decade. We are probably looking at a solid, well-managed, and low- risk investment, but not necessarily attractive in terms of expected returns.
And if we consider the opportunity cost today, there are businesses like Meta, Alphabet, or Microsoft with much more tailwind than Ber, better or equal competitive advantages, good fundamentals, and better expected returns if bought at the right price. Therefore, and to be completely honest with you, I wouldn't invest in B Hataway today, not because I doubt its future, far from it, but because I believe there are better alternatives to position oneself in this market moment.
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