저자: Fernando—출연자본인발언위주,빌애크먼인용 · 외국인
요약 보기
실리콘밸리은행(SVB) 파산 이후 금융 전이 우려 속에서 빌 애크먼의 연준 개입 촉구와 지역은행 저평가 매수 기회를 소개한 영상이다. [SVB 파산 개요] 2023년 3월 10일 SVB가 파산을 발표했다. 고객들이 420억 달러 예금을 인출하려 했기 때문이다. [파산 원인] 코로나 이후 고객 예금이 86% 급증했지만 대출로 운용하지 못해 장기 국채·MBS 등 고정수익 자산에 예금의 75%를 투자했다. 금리 상승기에 장기채 가격이 하락했고, 2022~2023년 고객 인출이 늘면서 매각 손실이 현실화됐다. [연준·정부 대응] 미 연방예금보험공사 보장 한도 25만 달러는 SVB 예금의 2%에 불과했다. 애크먼은 48시간 내 전액 보장을 요구했고, 연준은 전 예금과 채권 포트폴리오를 보장하기로 발표했다. [시장 상황] 월요일 First Republic, Western Alliance 등 지역은행 주가가 50% 이상 급락했다. [투자 제안] 애크먼은 지역은행이 시스템상 중요하며, 손실은 작고 이익은 큰 비대칭 기회라고 주장했다. 영상은 이를 근거로 지역은행 ETF인 KBW Regional Banking(KRE) 매수를 제시했다. [진행자 입장] 연준의 전액 보장 결정이 시장 개입 선례가 될지에 대해 시청자 의견을 물었다.
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to Investing from Zero. The last week has probably been the most difficult and critical week for the stock markets and the economy since the great financial crisis. Following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, fears of a new financial contagion that would devastate the global economy, as happened in 2008, reached record highs.
Vilagman, who experienced the events of the last crisis firsthand, made some very strong statements, outlining a clear roadmap for the Fed. He asserted that if action wasn't taken within hours, we would experience another collapse like the one in 2008. In this video, I will explain in a very simple and educational way why Silicon Valley Bank collapsed and how the solution offered by Vilagman has, at least initially, calmed fears within the financial sector of a massive contagion.
We will also see how this situation of financial stress has generated, according to Vilagman, excellent investment opportunities, which I will present in detail. So, give the video a like and let's get started. Before we move on to the ideas... Investments that this moment of financial stress has generated, and which, according to Vilagman himself, are literally real bargains.
Let's look at a simple summary that explains everything that has happened in the last week with Silicon Valley and the markets. Last Friday, March 10th, Silicon Valley Bank, a bank with more than 40 years of history specializing in startups and technology companies, announced its collapse after seeing how its clients flocked to withdraw $42 billion of their deposits due to fears of an imminent collapse that ended up happening.
I'm sure you're wondering, " Well, Fernando, how is it possible that a bank like this goes bankrupt?" Very simple, I'll explain it below. First of all, you must understand how the financial business of banks works. This business model is quite simple and it's simply about generating a spread or difference between the interest that banks pay to attract capital and the interest that banks charge to lend that same capital.
Let's take an example: imagine that Pepe goes to his financial institution and it offers him a one-year deposit which will pay Pepe an interest of 2%. Pepe agrees and commits to not having $100,000 available for a year in exchange for earning that 2%. At that moment, the financial institution will have Pepe's $100,000 available to invest in loans or mortgages to another client, charging, for example, 6%.
In this case, the bank will generate a profit differential equal to the 6% it lent to minus the 2% it cost to acquire the capital to lend, resulting in a 4% financial profit. During 2021, Silicon Valley Bank's clients, including startups and tech companies listed on the Nasda such as Roku, significantly increased their cash positions, and due to high inflation, they sought safe investments to protect part of their capital.
It was here that Silicon Valley Bank made a fatal rookie mistake: greed led it to increase its deposits by 86%, accepting the commitment to pay interest on them. However, it was completely impossible for the bank to invest all that capital raised in loans or mortgages to generate profits. Financially, unable to lend the capital it had raised through customer deposits, the bank decided to invest a large portion of that money in long-term fixed-income assets such as treasury bonds or mortgage bonds ( MPS).
Specifically, it committed 75% of its deposits to long-term investments that could not be converted into cash until maturity. In a normal environment where interest rates remain stable, nothing bad might happen. However, financing itself with short-term capital to lend or invest it all long-term in an environment where an increase in interest rates was clearly anticipated is suicidal.
This occurs due to the relationship between interest rates, bond prices, and the yield of the latter. When interest rates rise, the price of bonds issued some time ago falls, but the yield they offer remains the same. Investors sell these old bonds en masse to buy new bonds that, with the increase in interest rates, offer higher returns.
The problem in Silicon Valley is that the macroeconomic difficulties of its clients led them to progressively bail them out. Its deposits in 2022 and 2023. During that same period, interest rates were rising, and consequently, the value of the bank's long-term fixed-income investments was decreasing.
As you can see in the chart, at the end of 2022, the bank held $13.803 billion in cash, $26.069 billion in available-for-sale (AFS) investments, and $91.321 billion in non-cash assets (HTM). These latter assets were not recorded at their true value; that is, the impairment from rising interest rates was not reflected in the books.
However, since 2008, the Fed has allowed banks not to record this type of impairment on their balance sheets, as it will theoretically be recovered at maturity. Nevertheless, last Friday, after a failed capital increase by the bank, customers of the Californian entity flocked to withdraw $42 billion from their accounts, which caused the The bank's bankruptcy, not having enough cash to meet those refunds and generating millions in losses trying to liquidate assets, was when the billionaire investor urged the United States government and the Fed to guarantee all Silicon Valley Bank deposits within 48 hours.
If this wasn't done, a massive collapse of many regional banks would occur, as a contagion effect would be generated by the massive withdrawal of deposits from these banks, creating a domino effect of bank failures in the United States. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation guarantees each customer $250,000 per account; however, in the case of Silicon Valley Bank, this didn't even represent 2% of the total deposits.
Therefore, the Fed finally announced that it would guarantee all Silicon Valley Bank customer deposits, as well as debt portfolios, trying to calm fears of contagion. What do you think? Do you believe the investor made the right decision, or do you think the market shouldn't have intervened since it will set a precedent for other banks?
Leave your opinion in the video comments. However, despite the investor's efforts... To calm the market today, Monday, many regional banks like Fierrepublic Pack West Vancouver or Western Alliance Bank Corporation are plummeting. At the time of making this video, they've fallen by more than 50% due to fears of contagion.
It was then that I saw Lakman post a tweet assuring that this Silicon Valley Bank crisis was generating real bargains in some regional banks and that, although these investments weren't without real risks, they offered a very attractive symmetry where you could lose very little and gain a lot. Actman asserted that the role of regional banks is essential for the United States.
While small banks individually aren't systematically important like GP Morgan or Citibank, collectively they are systematically just as, or even more, important. One of the best ways to position ourselves in these regional banks, as recommended by Bilagman, and without assuming excessive risk in a company, is to buy the Invesco ETF that replicates regional banks, the KBW Regional Banking, which holds the major US banks among its holdings and which has also corrected considerably.
I hope this video has been valuable to you. If you have any questions about the Vilacman's statements or what happened with Silicon Valley Bank—feel free to leave a comment and I'll reply as soon as possible. That's all for now. A big hug to everyone, and see you next week. I think this is the beginning of a great friendship.
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