저자: Schwab Network · 외국인
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방송에서는 나스닥이 1% 넘게 하락하는 동안 다우와 S&P 동일가중지수는 상대적으로 견조한 흐름을 보인다고 전했다. 브로드컴, 엔비디아, AMD, 테슬라 등 대형 기술주가 압박을 받는 반면, 마이크로소프트와 애플은 전날 사상 최고가를 기록했다. 진행자들은 이미 AI 인프라를 갖춘 기업이 유리하고, 뒤늦게 따라잡으려는 기업은 압박을 받는 구도가 나타났다고 분석했다. 오픈AI는 데이터센터 전력 공급 비용을 전액 부담하겠다고 재확인했으며, 지역사회의 반발을 완화하려는 움직임으로 해석됐다. 고용 지표는 JOLTS와 ADP, 신규 실업수당 청구건수 등에서 강한 노동시장을 보여줬고, 시장은 비농업 고용 약 6만 2천 명과 실업률 4.2%를 예상하고 있다. 임금 상승률은 둔화 신호가 나타났다.
다듬은 글
Kevin Hanks always has great perspective and so let's go right to him there for the prebel playbook and I say good morning to you Kevin and I'm thinking about yesterday's monster rally and now the fact that we're seeing some followth through that's a nice sign at least for the Dow and the S&P there some of your thoughts
yeah this is going to be a much different day than yesterday Nicole good morning uh a day where the NASDAQ is looking down more than 1% that tells tells you with the E- Minis or the S&P basically unchanged that we could have a day where the equal weight S&P is higher, but the MAG 7 and some of the LA large cap tech stocks are going to be under pressure.
You already see that mid-market. I've got Broadcom down. I've got Nvidia down. I've got AMD down. Obviously, another day of SpaceX and Tesla down as the pressure on Elon Musk stocks continues. But this is going to play out over a couple days, Nicole, but ahead of non-farm payrolls tomorrow morning. We got a day where it looks like they're going to buy the 493, sell the seven.
But we'll watch play out o over the day because obviously just like always things can change once the US markets are open. A a lot of things can change Nicole. But right now we're starting out with the NASDAQ lower and the S&P relatively unchanged. Yeah. And you know what I was thinking was how we saw that divergence in some of the names.
names like uh Neocloud and Nebus and those names were down and meantime Microsoft and Apple hit record highs yesterday. I mean I really don't want to leave that out. We saw Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple um doing so well and Meta too. I think on the downside was Tesla, SpaceX, Nvidia and um some of the other related names.
any um final thoughts when it came to some of that and what you may be hearing? Yeah, you're right. The the impressive part of yesterday's trade was something like Amazon big rally in Amazon as they could be. If the overall AI roll out uh and and chip roll out, if that stalls or slows, the winners will be the people that already have it like Google Alphabet, like Microsoft Azure, like like Amazon with AWS.
Uh so all those people that already have the infrastructure in place were the winners yesterday. those trying to play catch-up like the Neoclouds like like some of the others, those were the ones that were under pressure. You're right. It was a big winner and loser day for the overall market. Pretty incredible actually.
Yeah, have a doubt. Yeah, really. That's the story. And so we'll continue to follow that, right? Um you know, and I heard Ed Denny, he had 7,900 for the end of the year. He had 8,400 mid year next year on the S&P 500 and then he saw 10,000 uh by the end of the decade for the S&P 500. Um open AI data center talk.
Let's hear a little about that. Yeah, I think that this is a story that's starting to gain momentum and I think you're going to see a lot more of it, Nicole. and that is OpenAI came out and reaffirmed its promise to pay the full cost of powering data centers as part of a series of commitments. Remember these companies, these data center companies are having trouble in the local communities thinking that they will stress the infrastructure and the energy needs of these communities.
And so OpenAI is coming out. I expect more firms to do this saying that we'll cover the cost of uh the overall energy needs and they're going to make it financially worth the while of these municipalities to accept these uh the electricity needs for the data centers. So I think this is the start of a big flow of the adjustment.
remember uh the the the data centers came out, the local communities, you've seen it on the news, right? Fighting against it and voting them down. Now, this is the response from these companies saying we'll cover all the costs. We'll make it financially um favorable to have these data centers. So I think this is just the back and forth going on and open AI you'll see chatbt you'll see these other companies start to get involved with this again but this is the back and forth right uh the the municipalities push back this is their response to that they're going to cover the energy costs
yeah and look I'm not surprised to hear it I mean I'll give you an example here in New York City I know one realtor was building um right around uh Penn Station or I'm sorry Grand Central Station and building buildings. And so what did they do? They redid all of Grand Central Station to make it nice for the people.
Okay. So they didn't just benefit from building their own building. And now Grand Central Station is absolutely beautiful. Um so I it's not unusual to hear of companies contributing to the community and it's probably a good idea overall. Um you know it seems let's talk about the jobs picture, right?
We had the jolts. We had more openings than expected. We got 80p. That was a little better than expected, right? And now claims and non-farm payrolls. Yeah. The the the first week of every month, we focus on the labor market. And so far, you mentioned Jolts, you mentioned ADP, all better than expected, showing a strong labor market.
Well, today we got the Challenger job cut 43,994. Not that big of a market mover there, but the initial jobless claims, that number, 189,000. Now, the 4-week moving average for firsttime filers for unemployment insurance 194,000. That below 195. That's incredibly strong uh indication for the labor market.
The continuing claims ticked a little higher, 1.718 million, but this is a good solid number. Now, does it remember three, this is our third strong labor market data point of the week. Does it, you know, follow through into uh jobs tomorrow? I don't know. But we'll see. A a lot of times there isn't good correlation between, let's say, ADP and non-farm payrolls.
But right now, we're looking for something around 62,000 jobs, a 4.2% unemployment rate. Remember, we just got a private payroll data that was higher than that. In terms of wages, up.3 and 2.9% wage growth year-over-year. That's down another tenth. That's another Remember, that's our first look at inflation for the month of October.
So, that number continues to ease on the downside in terms of yearover-year wage data. So, we're we're certainly going to watch that. We'll watch for for jobs, but obviously non-federal payroll unemployment is the number one data point of the month. It's very comprehensive. So, we're we're we're certainly watching for that.
I might expect today to be a little bit of a dry powder day ahead of that, but we'll see how it goes. You you just never know. Post election, these markets have been moving, Nicole. Oh, I mean, and last week before the election, right, when we were wrapping up the month of October and some of the family wealth offices were just saying, "That's it.
I had a great year. I don't even want to deal with November in December." And now you're talking about this post-election move, which rightfully so. We've been on a roller coaster, Kevin Hanks, and it's not over. The fund's not over. So, we'll continue to follow the story. And I think the wage growth point is really important.
You want at least wages to be more than inflation, right? So people can afford stuff, but you don't want to have elevated wage growth and then say we're too inflationary. It's sort of a catches catch can. Kevin, good to see you. Have a great day. I'll catch you at noon on Fast Market.
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