저자: 제이비 · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 401k와 인구구조를 근거로 미국 증시는 인구절벽 위험이 없고 우수 인재 유입으로 장기 우상향이 불가피하다고 주장. 한국 국민연금 붕괴 우려와 대비해 미국 지수 및 3배 레버리지 ETF(TQQQ, SOXL 등) 장기 적립투자를 권함. 과거 고점 매수자도 결국 회복한다는 논리. 영상 후반부는 이민 정책에 대한 편향된 서술을 포함.
다듬은 글
Yes, hello. This is JB. When I uploaded a video last week explaining why we should buy US index-tracking ETFs despite the current difficulties, many of you liked it. The comments were even more enthusiastic than usual. In that video, I discussed how US stocks are bound to trend upward thanks to the US 401k system.
Subscriber Summer Night left a rather insightful question. In fact, it is no exaggeration to say that I was inspired by Summer Night's question to create today's video. She left the following question: " JB, birth rates have dropped significantly lately, and people say the Korean National Pension will soon run out.
Will the US 401k be okay?" Yes, that is a really good question. In fact, in a way, the US 401k system corresponds to Korea's National Pension. Of course, if we delve deeper, it is a bit of a stretch to compare the 401k and the National Pension system exactly, but explaining that in detail would make the video too long, so let's just assume they are similar systems for now.
Ultimately, the National Pension also invests the money collected from us into companies, and that former It is because it is a system designed to secure our retirement through returns. However, negative talk about the National Pension has been circulating for quite some time now. The argument is that the structure is essentially doomed to fail and is identical to a multi-level Ponzi scheme.
This is because it is a structure where future generations must support everything, but Korea already has the lowest birth rate among OECD countries at 0.8—a figure that is less than one. However, compared to this, the number of citizens who must receive pensions is increasing exponentially year after year due to factors such as increased life expectancy.
Consequently, the logic is that, given current trends, this is a structure that future generations simply cannot support, and therefore, the National Pension is bound to run out and collapse. Going a step further, considering that the National Pension is the major shareholder of most famous Korean companies, the collapse of the National Pension would inevitably lead to the failure of Korean companies and a downward trend in the stock market— this is the point we are all worried about.
So, then, is the 401k, which has a similar structure to the National Pension, truly safe? The current issue regarding the birth rate... It is an issue that is becoming a problem not just in Korea, but in the US and the entire world. It does seem somewhat like a global trend regarding this low birth rate; amidst all this, Korea is uniquely and exceptionally severe.
Anyway, let me share my thoughts on this matter. Everyone, you need not worry about the US at all. Of course, the birth rate in the US has dropped significantly compared to the past, but it is still 1.64. It is a bit regrettable that it is below that level, but it is still a fairly decent level, even when looking at OECD standards.
Furthermore, the US has another unique characteristic. It is a country that can continuously and selectively accept immigrants whenever they want. Because of this, a demographic cliff cannot occur, and the population necessary to maintain US hegemony and keep the economy running smoothly will continue to be maintained.
Now, the important point here is that the US can selectively accept immigrants. However, as the problem of population shortages is becoming serious worldwide, most countries are actively considering immigration from economically underdeveloped nations, even if they are reluctant. Of course, regarding groups like Muslims, there are aspects that are relatively difficult to assimilate, so there is some resistance from members of society, but the same is true for Korea.
If you look at Korea... At some point, the number of Chinese people increased dramatically. You can find ethnic Koreans from China everywhere, and the same goes for people from Southeast Asia. But honestly, we aren't accepting ethnic Koreans from China or people from Southeast Asian countries because we want to.
I can't go into too much detail about this part because it might cause controversy, but I'm sure you all understand what I'm saying. We accept them because there are very diverse and complex interests involved—we need to fill the labor force for factories, collect taxes from various sources for the national budget, and revitalize the domestic economy.
The point here is that places like ours cannot be selective. Because we are in a desperate situation right now, we basically just accept anyone. Of course, acquiring Korean citizenship might involve some complexities, but things like work visas are issued very easily, just out of necessity, to everyone.
So, what I want to say is that while it is uncertain whether accepting people this way will fully meet our future labor needs, we are still forcing our headcount in. Even if that were to happen, it would by no means be a social population composed of high-quality, highly skilled personnel. In fact, this could potentially only cause more conflict within society.
Now, let's look at the situation in the United States. Even without much promotion, there are already a huge number of people wanting to go there. Since ancient times, people have been making a fuss about the "American Dream" and trying to work on American soil. And more importantly, they can select and accept good personnel.
They can only accept highly skilled workers. Since the population is overflowing, just think about it simply. Is acquiring U.S. citizenship easy? No, it is difficult. It is extremely strict even to obtain a green card, let alone citizenship. That is why it is so difficult to get a U.S. green card or citizenship that people pay huge sums of money to brokers for things like sham marriages, isn't it?
If you look at obtaining a work visa, the document screening is also extremely rigorous. They intend to accept only certified, highly skilled personnel. Because the nation itself is the number one country in the world in terms of military power, and is blessed with abundant natural resources—a blessed land, and so on—they can afford to do so.
Since there are plenty of people willing to break through such strict screenings and come, that is why the United States... First of all, my view is that there is no such thing as the 401k system weakening due to demographic risks, and ultimately, we have no choice but to expect an infinite upward trend in the stock market.
Now, to add to that, given the current situation, what is happening is that the world's most renowned geniuses and prodigies are all flocking to the United States. If you look at the U.S., there are a huge number of entrepreneurs of immigrant origin. For instance, Jensen Huang, the CEO of Nvidia—one of the semiconductor companies most loved by Koreans—is from Taiwan.
Lisa Su, the CEO of the famous AMD, is also from Taiwan. And Sundar Fitz, the current CEO of Alphabet Google—the company that dominates our lives immensely, including YouTube and Android—is also from India. So, looking at it, it is truly excessive; the brightest geniuses and elites from every country are all voluntarily heading to the United States.
It is not just countries like Taiwan and India; even in traditional advanced European nations like Germany, the UK, and France, the country where competent young elites dream of immigrating the most is the United States. But given this situation, [I am] saying that the whole world is currently struggling with low birth rates...
How could a 401k possibly be shaken? How could the U.S. stock market be shaken? The U.S. is always an exception to all negative factors; this is something we must remember. Looking at its history spanning over 100 years, the U.S. stock market has always broken through previous highs and trended upwards, and it is bound to continue doing so.
I mean, there is no demographic cliff risk that the whole world is worried about, and top talent and geniuses from all over the world are flocking to the U.S., so how could U.S. companies not trend infinitely upwards? Also, sometimes I see people saying, "Okay, I admit you're right, but you should invest stably in QQ or Spy; 3x leverage isn't quite right." So let me reiterate: we are not saying we will go all-in at the current peak.
If you invest steadily in installments, the difference in returns later on will be incomparable. In fact, even those who went all-in at the peak will generally recover over time and are bound to break through their previous highs. And those who say 3x leverage leads to ruin are simply believing that U.S.
stocks will just keep showing nothing but volatility—going up, down, up, down—for 5 or 10 years, while remaining indefinitely sideways. That is what I am saying. Index-tracking 3x leverage products hurt a lot when they fall because negative compounding applies, but conversely, when they rise, positive compounding applies, causing them to surge and recover in an instant.
So please do not worry at all. Of course, the methodology for conducting 3x leverage investing can vary from person to person. Some may say that "holding on" is the answer no matter what, and that they will just keep accumulating without selling until the very end, while others may say to utilize volatility and continue by taking partial profits as needed.
Both are correct answers. So, just choose the method that suits your style better and continue investing. I will end today's video here. I would like to thank those who newly signed up for membership today and wrap up. Thank you, Drakron, for joining the Starbucks membership. Thank you, Lee Man-jun, for joining the Coca-Cola membership.
Your support through membership is a great help in video production. We will repay your grateful support by uploading membership-exclusive videos that help broaden your perspective on the market and improve your insights into the overall economic situation. I also extend my deepest gratitude to all my subscribers who take the time to watch my videos and leave supportive comments.
Moving forward, I will do my utmost to create mental care videos for the long-term investment success of every single one of my subscribers, without any self-interest. Thank you.
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