저자: Kevin · 외국인
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BCA Research는 비트코인 고점 신호(수익 공급 90%↑, 대형 ETF 유입, 트럼프 밈코인 등)를 근거로 익절 후 75k 부근 재매수 관점을 제시. 진행자는 BCA 분석에 대체로 동의하며 휴머노이드 로봇을 차세대 투자 테마로 언급. 셀시어스는 과거 분석 후 비관 유지, 하락폭 언급. 나머지는 뉴스 전달(트럼프 일가 수익, 골드만 금 관련 코멘트 등).
다듬은 글
Well, Jamie Dimon lashes out. One crypto firm says Bitcoin is going to 700,000. Another says sell it now, pick it up again at 75k. We'll talk about why and what they say about Donald Trump with his Trump token and what Melania just got paid nearly 30 million dollars for. We'll talk about that. Also, we'll have a little bit of macro notes from Goldman Sachs and we'll look a little bit into micro.
RFK got confirmed and well, we got things to cover. First, let's listen to Jamie Dimon's lash out because honestly, it's priceless and it should be motivating for anybody leading teams at companies or really any individual employee. Take a listen to this. This is priceless. Here we go. A lot of you were on the Zoom and you were doing the following, okay?
You know, looking at your emails, sending texts to each other about what an the other person is. Okay? Not paying attention, not reading your stuff, you know, and if you don't think that slows down efficiency, creativity, creates rudeness, and so on, it does, okay? And when I found out that people are doing that, you you don't do that in my goddamn meetings.
You go to meet with me, you got my attention, you got my focus. I don't bring my goddamn Just a heads-up, this is like the unfiltered behind-the-scenes Jamie Dimon. You know, we're used to sort of like the interview Jamie Dimon, but this guy, he's a workhorse. Like I've talked to people inside of JP Morgan and they're like, "When he shows up, he's just like a salt-of-the-earth kind of guy, but he'll also he's not afraid to tell it like it is." And it's great.
This is like inspiring to listen to. Not saying you need to be aggressive, but he's kind of right. Like if you're in a Zoom meeting and you're off doing other things, it's probably not great for the corporation's efficiency or productivity. I think this is why a lot of companies are going sort of back to office and they're purposely trying to fire people in doing so, which I don't think bodes well for the future of labor and employment, but let's keep looking here.
phone, I'm not sending texts to people, okay? It simply doesn't work and it doesn't work for creativity, it slows down decision-making. And don't give me the that work-from-home Friday works. I I call a lot of people on Friday, there's not a goddamn person you get a hold of. But here are the problems, okay?
And they are substantial, okay? Which is the young generation is being damaged by this. That mean they may I may not be in your particular staff, but they are being left behind. They're being left behind socially, ideas, meeting people. In fact, my guess is most of you live in communities a hell of a lot less diverse than this room.
Every area should be looking to be 10% more efficient. If I was running a department of 100 people, I guarantee you if I wanted to, I could run it with 90 and be more efficient. I guarantee you. I could do cuz I could do it in my sleep. And the notion these bureaucracies, I need more people, I can't get it done.
No, because you're you're filling out requests that don't need to be done. Your people are going to meetings they don't need to go to. I By the way, this is something I see so common is people feel like in order to prove that they're being productive, they have to go to meetings. Meetings are the worst.
Like send me a freaking email. Like I could I could look back at the countless Zooms that I've been on over the last 2 years and almost all of them could have been replaced by a text message or an email. And honestly, I'd rather just go meet you in person anyway. But meetings suck. Someone told me to prove something in wealth management that they had to go to 14 committees.
I am dying to get the name of the 14 committees and I feel like firing 14 chairmen of committees. I can't stand it anymore. Now, you have a choice. You don't have to work at JP Morgan. So, the people of you who don't want to work at the company, that's fine with me. I'm not I'm not mad at you. Don't be mad at me.
It's a free country. You can walk with your feet, you know, but this company is going to set our own standards and do it our own way. And and I've had it with this kind of stuff. And you know, I I come in you know, I've been working 7 days a goddamn week since COVID and I come in and I where's everybody else?
They're here and there and the Zooms and the Zooms don't show up and people say they didn't get stuff. So, that's not how you run a great company. We didn't build this great company by doing that, by doing the same semi-disease that everybody else does. Yeah, that was good. I love rants like that and I just feel like it's so so real and and it exhibits so many frustrations that I feel like so many of us can agree with.
But anyway, happy Valentine's Day everyone. Let's get into the Meet Kevin report for today, February 14th. So, BCA Research argues that the top is in. They say that we're going to be getting less fiscal policy and therefore we shouldn't be expecting a Bitcoin to move more positively, especially in an environment of moderating growth, they say.
They also see that overall, yes, while there are bumps on the way, they expect that inflation is indeed moderating and as a result, it's time to take profits on Bitcoin and wait to buy closer to 75,000. Now, you might think that that they are the bears of the room, but at least according to themselves, they have been bulls longer than anybody else has been a bull and they talk about how they've been bulls on crypto since early 2023 and that bottom line, they're cashing out of Bitcoin for now and they'll be back buyers around 75,000.
They also break down a little bit about some of the wealth that has been created by the Trumps. They talk about how basically the Trump token, which issued a share of just 20% of float available for people to buy with 80% held by insiders, created more wealth for Donald Trump in a matter of hours via a meme coin than his lifetime of investments.
That didn't last long though. Then you started seeing kind of the the sort of petering out of the Trump token price. The launch of Melania token didn't do so well. They also go on then to say that is it possible that crime is now maybe legal? Did the first family just perform a rug pull, a term used in the cryptocurrency world for a scam?
The POTUS launched his coin with a textbook set of red flags. Keeping a lid on liquidity while at the same time issuing other tokens. So, basically doing the opposite. So, it's like you're saying you're keeping a lid on liquidity, but you're actually not because you're just creating more tokens. Other people and celebrities do this as well.
Bhad Bhabie, she did it and now she's getting sued and sent over to the SEC. Of course, people think that Trump, who has immunity, can basically do whatever he wants and given that he's directed the SEC to reduce the enforcement of cryptocurrencies, maybe maybe nothing ends up happening anyway. But BCA argues that all of this together may end up being a sign of the top.
They don't actually say that you should care about Trump one way or the other. They say the fact is that right now, when you've got people like Larry Fink of BlackRock suggesting that active wealth managers should be allocating 2 to 5% of their portfolio to Bitcoin and that the price is going to 700,000 for Bitcoin, that you should look at that as a top signal.
Not only that, but the launch of ETFs with record inflows for Bitcoin have really indicated a surge of optimism and they say that this raging optimism is a sign of the top. The share of supply of Bitcoin right now in profit is over 90%, which historically marks the top. Also, eight out of the 10 most downloaded financial apps right now are crypto trading apps with the number one app apparently called Moon Shot.
We also see some macro trends over the next 6 months that could potentially weigh on crypto prices such as deficit spending from the government disappointing. Well, yeah, cuz they're firing everyone. Okay, well, not everyone, but you know, they're they're dodging over there. Yeah, there is Moon Shot.
Hey, it's only got like a 3.8 star review. It's got a lot of reviews though. But anyway, you know, they do argue that long-term Bitcoin they don't see it as a scam. They don't see it as like a tool that's mostly used for crime, which people allege about crypto. In fact, they argue that only a small percentage of crypto is used for crime.
So, yes, it happens, but you know, a greater percentage of crime occurs with dollar hollers. But anyway, it's it is quite fascinating that that they're taking this point of view that we're at peak risk basically for downside movement in Bitcoin and that when when you get to the point of the president issuing meme coins and potentially rugging, you have no greater sign of being at a top.
Now, Bitcoin, when when you look at sort of the technicals of it, it has been range-bound really since the election. There's no real indication yet that we are setting up for a trend to actually explode up to 155. People are instead more actively looking at this potential to return to the 71k line. This is where they say they would be buyers again under 75,000.
Quite interesting. Don't don't disagree with some of that analysis, but what's also very interesting is that was BCA Research, but it led me to look at the front page of the Wall Street Journal. Actually, I think I have it right here. Was it right here? Oh, yeah, there it is. I already threw it away because I wrote down what I wanted to from it, but I figured I'd show you cuz yeah, I still read the paper.
It's cuz I'm old now. I just had a birthday. Trump family reaps bonanza making millions since election. They basically talk about how Melania Trump has been working to sell the rights for a movie or documentary about her return to the White House as a first lady. After dinner with Trump, Bezos and Melania, Amazon 2 weeks later decided to announce a $40 million licensing agreement for Melania's documentary.
Next highest offer was from Disney at $14 million. So, it makes you wonder, well, why was the delta $26 million with Amazon? with Amazon. That is why was Amazon willing to pay $26 million more? What kind of special favors do we get from Trump OVER HERE, HUH? YOU KNOW, I WAS LOOKING THE THE somebody somebody sent this on on Twitter.
I've been very little active on Twitter, but I saw I guess searches for Swiss bank accounts and like you know, I and wire numbers are skyrocketing specifically in Washington D.C., which is which is quite interesting. Swiss bank accounts for US citizens skyrocketing. Now, some people were saying D.C.
I'm looking right now and I see more California Swiss bank accounts for US citizens. Some kind of giant skyrocket there right at the end of the year, too. But it is possible that somebody releases a letter and says you should have a Swiss bank account and that leads to these bumps. So, I don't know that it necessarily means anything, but it is interesting because if you look at sort of the money that the Trump family has been making, you know, I mean Donald Trump got a $25 million settlement from Meta.
Melania Trump just got basically a $28 million deal because she gets about 70% of that $40 million licensing fee, plus they're trying to sell more sponsors for it. You know, X just paid Trump $10 million to settle a lawsuit. Don Jr. joins the advisory board for unusual machines, a drone manufacturer.
It skyrockets like 249% in the 2 days thereafter and they pay him shares. CNN wanted to interview Melania Trump and she's like, yeah, in order to take your interview, we're going to charge $250,000 to go on your show. So, in other words, Melania Trump, in order to share her opinion on CNN, wanted $250,000, which Trump fans say, did they think she was going to do it for free?
Or, you know, $250,000 would probably have been a good investment for CNN's viewership. And then of course, people on the other side are like, bro, they should be doing this for free. They're they're they're they're serving us. But then, you know, people respond to that and go, technically, is the first lady a civil servant or is she the wife of a civil servant?
Anyway, the Wall Street Journal also had an editorial piece that media's got its thing going today, I guess. But Wall Street Journal had an editorial piece about how dumb tariffs are. Honestly, as as just like an economic 101 POV, yeah, tariffs are stupid. They create deadweight loss. But anyway, they had this interesting analogy.
They're like, look, just because somebody else has dumb ideas and they tariff us, doesn't mean you should copy those dumb ideas because you just end up creating more deadweight loss. So, like then you also have to wonder if China's going to tariff rare earth minerals, are we going to copy that and make it even harder for us to buy those critical minerals?
Like we don't sell rare earth minerals to China, but if they have them and we need them, why are we going to make it harder? Kind of an interesting point. Goldman Sachs has an argument that maybe gold could end up retracing its recent gains on a resolution between Russia and Ukraine. Steve disagrees.
Danske Bank, I think that's such an interesting name. Dang Danske. It sounds like dang dang bank. Anyway, says that the labor market remains solid and layoffs remain historically low with no acute signs of weakness, but they argue that there could be a reduction in productivity and hough, when you look at CapEx spending, some people are like, hey, you know, Microsoft, Meta and all these companies so far haven't reduced their CapEx spending for artificial intelligence, but Meta actually might be shifting exactly what they spend it on.
A lot of people think that CapEx spending is all going to go to Nvidia, but apparently per Bloomberg, Meta's big next bet is going to be humanoid robotics to compete with Tesla. You know, Alibaba's been up since like 55% since the deep seek moment and partly because of you know, Chinese exposure to artificial intelligence, but also their partnership with Apple, but but others see the next phase of AI spending, that CapEx spending, not necessarily is going away, but getting reallocated to things like humanoid.
I actually do agree that humanoid robotics are going to be the next frontier of investments. That's why my venture capital company invested in in humanoids. And space exploration. So, more more on that soon, but what's fascinating here to really think about is these mega cap companies, the Mag 7s, specifically the Amazon, Meta, Google, Microsoft, I think they there's a chance they could all throw their money into humanoid robotic development.
I honestly think they'll probably just end up buying up some of the smaller humanoid robotic companies. And if they do that, then you have a lot of humanoid companies competing with Tesla. The question then becomes manufacturing. And some people actually see an upside for Tesla there and that maybe they can contract manufacture with Tesla, but the downside there is then you're associating again with Elon's politics and so that might not be the best contract manufacturer.
So, you might just end up having new manufacturing plants coming up from like the Microsoft robotic space or the Google DeepMind robotic space. Kind of interesting. Something that I don't know if if a lot of folks have really considered when it comes to you know, what Optimus is over at Tesla and presently the what appears to be the lack of competition.
Anyway, speaking of competition, there's so much competition in Celsius that last year we did three analyses on Celsius stock and each time I said I would not buy this stock. Their PE is shrinking. They are struggling to sell their product because of increased competition. And sometimes the best investment is the investment you didn't make.
And so if you look at Celsius stock over the last year, it's down 63%. One of my first analyses into this company was back in January of 2024. Well, I didn't like them then. Then again in June, excuse me. It was end end of May, beginning of June, somewhere right around here. It's like right around the top where like this is crazy.
This is like pure euphoria. And sure enough, what happened since that peak? It's down like 75%. So, you have to be really careful. I'm a fundamentalist at heart and you want to be very very careful with stuff like this. Next thing to consider is California. I found this very interesting. So, the California fires, you know, have you ever heard about how the utilities potentially want to have the power turned off so a fire doesn't get caused through utilities?
Well, apparently SoCal Edison did because everybody was begging them to and now there's a potential that because they overloaded some of their other transmission lines and ended up causing the fire in the first place. For the Eaton fire. That's what's being investigated now. Crazy. RFK ended up getting approved as the Department of Health and Human Services.
So, I think vaccine makers are probably rattling in their boots right now. It'll be kind of entertaining. Anyway, so we'll see how this all plays out, but that's what we got today for the Meet Kevin report. So, if you want to be a part of the deep fundamental analysis we do every single morning, make sure you join us.
We'll be live this weekend as well in the morning and you can watch it back on 2x if you want. Of course, r them. Trumpanomics will also be getting some new lectures with a price increase at the end of the month as we prepare to release some amazing new lectures. So, check those out as well as the course member livestreams, you can get access to folks, don't you .
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