저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경기 낙관 속 채용 지표 괴리 지적, 주식 비중 70% 권고(Ned Davis), 빅테크 실적 강세와 밸류에이션 상승 언급. AI 투자는 GDP는 올리나 고용 감소로 이어지지 않아 강세 신호라 주장. 앱러빈(AppLovin)은 실적 호조로 긍정 평가, 트레이드데스크는 구조적 위험(구글·넷플릭스 자체 광고)으로 부정 평가 후 풋 매도 기회를 언급. 트럼프 행정부의 반부패법 집행 유예, 우크라이나 휴전 기대, 테슬라 정부 계약 논란 등 정책 이슈를 다룸.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here here's what you need to know for February 13th there's a temporary and long-term staffing agency called ronot they own monster.com bottom line they're like hey everybody's so freaking optimistic about the economy right now but how come that's not showing up in hiring data and what companies are actually doing yet quote Top Executives at the world's largest employment agency by Revenue said that they were seeing a disconnect between sentiment and reality in the United States with business is talking about a strong jobs Market but recruiters not seeing a surge in hiring yet now In fairness it's possible that we've got to get through the seasonal layoffs first and then maybe we'll see a surge in hiring again as the economy booms in fact Ned Davis is jumping up and down because right now they say we're at the lowest recession odds since October of 2020 one which which is interesting because that was basically right in front of the peak of the market so then you wonder like if we're at the lowest since that anyway they're recommending a 70% allocation to stocks 15% overweight compared to usual with only 20% for bonds and a 10% for cash this comes at the same time as Bank of America is like and we've heard this argument like for an entire decade already but they're bringing up again you know you know passive funds are really reducing Reliance on fundamentals and diversification you know passive funds are 5 4% of the market and the top five stocks of the S&P 500 account for 25% of it this is crazy okay but also those top five companies are making money hand over freaking fast like the amount of earnings that are going into US companies right now relative to the rest of the world kind of makes sense why valuations are skyrocketing in the US because the earnings power is crazy and you should see app love it now that oh talk about massive pee over there but we'll hit that in just a moment unlike trade desk oh you don't even want to know what trade desk said in their earnings call okay it's bad let's just say part of their company plan is uh we'll do good when Google shuts down I kid you not but so so think about this for a moment we're in this really Goldilocks environment right now where the economy is essentially expanding uh at least from all metrics that we could see I mean earnings at so many different compan companies are beating in explosive manners uh yes we've got this potential for uh an increase in layoffs one day we're not seeing it yet because even the Wall Street Journal on the front page of the Wall Street Journal website today talks about how hey uh 65 to 75,000 people from the federal government are going to take the layoffs that Trump is offering they take those layoff deals and then they go look for other jobs and they quote interviews from hiring managers of companies that are like dude we've had like 60 fed boys show up for jobs and we just don't have that many jobs to give them and they sort of balance this by saying it's okay though because local governments are hiring like police departments and cities they usually hire later in Cycles anyway so maybe that's okay and it'll sort of balance out I I don't really know what to believe but I will say some things that we know with certainty right now were with the exception of tariffs optimism is really really high and valuations at companies are very very high uh but some companies are also just printing a lot of money and part of that could be because of this boom in AI spending that we've seen and I thought of a funny irony the funny irony is what happens if you basically spend hundreds of billions of dollars maybe even trillions of dollars on artificial intelligence infrastructure to generate you know a fraction of that in revenues because sure maybe it makes everybody a little bit more productive but it doesn't make us a a lot more productive to the point where AI productivity doesn't actually lead to layoffs it just leads to us working with AI and getting a little bit of a 10% productivity boost but it's not strong enough to lead to layoffs so you kind of get the best of both you get companies throwing billions of dollars into essentially GDP increasers but then not laying people off because they still need people because the AI just isn't that good yet you still need a human with AI to actually do real work it's kind of funny when you think about it like that because that's that's a pretty bullish Outlook actually like that's not to be bearish that's actually a bullish Outlook if you think about it that that's good because if companies aren't going to lay people off then you're not going to walk into the recession landmine and then maybe Ned Davis is going to be right where they're saying like hey the odds of a recession right now are extremely low now they according to them Spike to like 40% back when we were in August which was interesting I mean you could see the chart I'll show it to you right here it is an interesting chart to look at here's the chart what are ndrs recession models are telling us now and when you zoom into it you can see this thing I mean in my opinion when I see a chart like this it's not particularly useful because look at how early of a lead they gave you for the recession of 2008 right here basically the recession already started when you were over a 30% chance and these are the same that you know in August had a 40% chance of recession in the United States okay so not a very useful chart in my opinion uh but another thing that's also kind of interesting is if you go back to where was it oh it was one of these charts in here recession likelihood look at this uh us recession probability based on the on on state conditions okay what's fascinating here is look how you had this sort of like double d dip in fact you saw this in 89 as well see look at this recession odds spiked dipped oh crap now we're in recession so it's sort of like oh no recession odds are going up nah bro we're fine crap we're in a recession that happened in 89 but look at this it also happened in 2007 hey bro we're going into recession nah man everything's fine Leman Brothers collapses oh crap oh no the might be a double dip oh my gosh it just it honestly it makes me think you just you can't listen to half of the stuff these people are saying because I feel like they're just spitting in the wind uh and and hoping the wind changes directions uh but anyway uh kind of interesting uh at the same time you do get layoffs right I mean you're seeing them but then you get this every January right I mean Amazon's forcing people back to work there are stories about how people are running out of desk space Chevron cutting Workforce by 20% blue origin Jeff bezos's Space play cutting 10% of its Workforce in a global restructuring but then you know you you take that and you flip over and you say okay well how are companies doing well uh when you actually start looking at fundamentals although I mean I know a lot of people don't because you don't have to I mean you could just buy a stock and it just goes up sort of the market we're in right now I'm not advising that I'm just observing that uh but but look at a company like app love it I mean this is like absolutely incredible uh let's see here this is uh app L let's get rid of this little sidebar thingy here there we go all right look at this Revenue has exploded like 42% at this company year-over-year they're an advertising play for apps so like you know apps on your phone inapp ads right uh and their sales actually decreased about 3% year-over-year last year and even if you remove the tax benefit they still have 37% net margins now their valuation you know they're trading for like a 2.4 Peg which is somewhat okay for a software Biz uh they they've got you know they've got nice cash flow a couple billies a year uh but you know they're also like $130 billion company so it's a smaller percentage of the total business but this company prints money like absolutely this is like a printing press of money now I don't have an investment in the company I wish I did but I'm just I I was just analyzing this this morning with our course members and I'm like you know the balance Sheet's okay it's not like paler strong but this is very good and this stands in contrast to a company like tradesk that I'm honestly vomiting over because first things first we gave a warning to course members about trade desk in January it was uh uh I think it was January 22nd look at the warning that we spotted and I'll tell you where we saw it too this right here was the warning this is the Netflix earnings call and they say the biggest initial benefit we have of using our own ad server is enabling us to offer more flexibility more ways of buying for advertising fewer activation hurdles and just improving the overall buying experience so I wrote not great for trade desk if Netflix prefer their own stuff and so I foreshadowed hey like this is bad if companies start in-housing these ad services like Amazon or Disney or Netflix because they realize they could use less complicated software more stream light products and ultimately keep more money for themselves then trade desk fails trade desk could vanish they were great because they were one of the early plays in Connected TV advertising but you could now literally go down the poopy dupies because companies like Netflix are like bro we don't need you we're just going to cut out the middleman we don't need a broker in the middle of this we have plenty we have we control the supply because we make the movies and people contact us to place ads what do we need you for to try to sell our ads plus we got plenty of people who want our slots so that was a really big red flag I mean massive red flag and we talked about it with course members because this is what we do fundamental analysis all the time in addition to technical analysis get the course member live streams we were live for like an hour and a half this morning you really want to be a part of it and be part of it live for more than an hour and a half this morning uh you get lifetime access you pay once over me kevin.com use the coupon code before the price goes up but what I want you to see which was absolutely mindblowing and I'm not going to go through all of this because there was a lot that was mind-blowing in this but I want you to see this one section here this was crazy you ready for this this is part of their business plan uh and they write if in okay yeah here some evidence suggests the substantial majority of spend is going through blah blah blah routed through Google's own platforms to YouTube blah blah blah whatever happens with the trial decision Google will likely distance itself from the open internet if and when Google exits the open internet they will leave a big hole and a big opportunity for the rest of us what did I really just hear trade desk say hey guys we're going to do great when Google leaves the internet this is like I'm I hate to use the word but it's like Financial retardation okay this is like are you kidding me this is what the ex who is this the CEO or the CFO this was the CEO Jeff Green of trade desk I think he actually lives in Thousand Oaks tell me I'm wrong Jeff let's go to coffee I I'll come up to Westlake we could go to you know one of your little bougie restaurants over there or whatever and let's understand why you would say this and why I'm wrong to interpret that this is basically something like hey if uh Elon uh decides to retire house hack will do well you know that's like what do they have to what what like this doesn't make sense right uh I still think diversifying into real estate right now is a really good idea especially with with where some valuations are but I'm a little biased okay I like real estate a lot it's because maybe I'm just a boring person I don't know but anyway you know I mean they literally then start bitching about Amazon they're like oh you know we should wait for people to stop supporting Amazon because Amazon sells products that could compete with customers of Amazon so there's a conflict of interest there you know trade desk is great because we're objective and I'm like no y'all are smoking crack so you know and then you look at the market today and trade desk is down 30% on on missed guide uh and missed earnings and app Lovin Beats earnings and guidance by a lot uh so you know you got one up 30% one down 30% I'm like oh this is going to be overblown for trade desk I went into trade desk thinking maybe this is a great time to sell some puts which honestly even though I'm pooping on it right now it it could be unless the broader Market sells down it could be an interesting time to sell puts because volatility is going to go through the roof right uh but anyway I'm looking at the er's call I'm like oh no no this is actually bad uh yeah that was something else uh anyway anyway so that's app Lov and uh trade desk something that I I want to hit though is the Wall Street Journal is complaining about Donald Trump because uh they're saying like hey Trump isn't it backwards that you're clamoring for lower taxes yet you're trying to get you know higher uh tariffs honestly have we not realized the Playbook yet that most of this is just uh negotiating uh you know now the current tariffs they're announcing today at 1:00 are going to have a start uh starting date of April 1st so it's like bro that gives you like six weeks to negotiate this stuff this is a what is this like a joke or something April 1st we all know what April 1 is it's Lord and my anniversary uh House GOP aims for C tax cuts of four and a half Bill trillion dollars that's great but they're two-p parting this which is not what people wanted Trump wanted a one big beautiful Bill and instead it looks like they're going to go for about a $350 billion package first focused on border security and National Defense and then they'll work on the tax negotiation later for you know Social Security tax on tips uh extending the 2017 Cuts so tax deductions you know all that good stuff uh so this is all going to be very interesting Trump media Boss by the way uh not to be confused with Trump Media Group but Trump's FCC chair is now apparently investigating NBC for promoting Dei uh and now they're potentially opening cases against multiple media Outlets like C CBS thanks to its edit of the kamla Harris interview uh it's actually really interesting because you straight up have basically Trump without any shame going let's put a pitbull in at the Federal Communications Commission and go after the people who were mean to me while I was running it's like all right well I mean you won so I guess you get to but anyway uh there's also this drama about uh Tesla potentially getting a Biden contract for armored Teslas uh it literally in the government documents it says armored Teslas and $400 Million worth of those then of course Elon Musk writes on X that this is fake news and that he's not aware of any $400 million handout apparently this was a Biden proposal and then what they did is they actually just went back and edited it this morning and they changed it to armored electric vehicles from armored Teslas so it looks like they were supposed to go to Teslas from the Biden admin but now they're realizing it they're like nah let's edit that uh we don't want to make it seem like you know contracts are flowing over to Tesla from elon's influence in the government but then like the cat's out of the bag and Tesla Stock's actually up like 4% today on this impression that Yes actually uh we might we might exactly see Tesla certainly SpaceX get more business because of their connection to Trump especially since you know Trump is now getting rid he just got signed an executive order getting rid of the anti-bribery law that existed the executive order is called pausing the foreign corrup Practices Act enforcement to further economic and National Securities I I can't help but think like some of the cronies inside of the Trump Administration are like hey bro sign this it's good for the National Defense and and economy and like I'm not trying to say Trump's like a puppet here but he signs it and like all of his Cron are like so what you're saying now is we could start accepting red envelopes and assigning government grants and projects uh yeah yeah and then not get not potentially uh you know get in trouble for that now technically if you read the executive order this is only a six-month pause and so there could be bribed uh enforcement after that for what happened during the 6 months some people say companies are going to go to you know countries that around the world start accepting bribes and start building infrastructure that this loosens deterrence against bribery and Corruption others are like who cares if it benefits the US economy and people want to be corrupt they're corrupt anyway so let them be corrupt I I I I don't know I guess let me just put it this way it wasn't on my bingo card that Trump was going to get rid of anti-bribery laws it it doesn't exactly smell good but who knows I guess we'll see what happens you know my initial gut is this is probably a bad thing uh but uh there's also the argument that in the short term maybe it just expands the bubble and uh you can make some more Bank in the meantime not saying it's a good thing at all but anyway um the odds of a ceasefire which this I actually like uh Trump is open to talks with Putin if he talks to Putin he also talked to seleni highly productive phone calls between the two leaders you know Trump and and seninsky and then Putin and Trump uh they believe that they'll come up with solution soon one of the potential Solutions is military support for Ukraine in exchange for the United States getting Rare Earth minerals uh which is brilliant because it's sort of like hey you know why are we giving so much and not getting in return so that's kind of interesting but you know the betting markets now have a 69% chance at ending uh or getting some kind of ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine which I'm all for because I'm tired of seeing people die Trump uh is now apparently using the US military to uh surveil and conduct a reconnaissance on the cart over Mexico that's kind of entertaining and uh fredi M uh warns that Elon Musk could end up facing consequences for boosting the alternative for deand on X in case you don't know everybody in the media calls the afd uh the uh uh you know far right uh you know organization that uh that's too extreme and and you know they're they're going to turn into dictators like Trump this is what people say okay I'm not saying I say that but uh other people say well the offda for the first time in a very long time is actually getting a good amount of votes so they could end up getting 20% of the vote in Germany and even though the sdu is expected to essentially get the most votes and then form a coalition with other governments Matt says there's no way basically in Hell he's going to partner with the afd because he sees them as far right Wingers uh and actually and potentially wants to punish Elon Musk for promoting the IFD IFD is also very like anti-immigration please like get the Muslims out is sort of the argument there again I'm not saying that they say it it's not exactly helped but like you know by this fact that an Afghan 24y old rammed 28 people and injured them no word out on any deaths knock on wood uh in Munich today which is just like this needs to stop happening but anyway Meritt says that Elon Musk could face consequences for boosting the A on X he says it could be a political response it could be a legal response he wants to analyze this after the election and says that he might actually leave some consequences on the table for Giga Berlin so you know if the leader of Germany potentially has control over one of the largest factories uh that Tesla has you know could put a little bit more of a a poopy doopy on at least some of the margins that Tesla has I don't think they're gonna like shut him down because that would cost jobs but there are potentials for for sanctions or fines or or whatever I'm not saying anything is right again just sort of reporting the news here uh again kind of still think that anti-bribery thing is a little little interesting but okay uh anyway PPI was slightly hotter this morning jobless claims slightly lower honestly the more you look at this stuff and then like Robin Hood is blowing up because they see revenues doubling this year especially because they're calling prediction markets the future I mean like the more stocks go up oh and Eva the more stocks go up the more like Hood goes up because people are trading it on Hood a lot right it is a little bit of a crazy time right now because everything's just kind of going straight up I I mean I can't help myself but feel like we're sort of in like the leadup to uh December of 20121 but I don't know what the catalyst is for being bearish so I'm not going to tell you to be a dirty bear uh in fact I'll tell you that's a pretty lonely world to be in I wouldn't know so um this morning I sent out a daily well oh um is that it and Dutch Bros is doing that yeah Dutch Bros nice nice move there on margins too but um this morning I sent a thing on The Daily Wealth basically argued that boredom is a good thing so if you're stressed and overwhelmed because you have too much on your plate it's really important to start axing things off of your plate so you could stop being stressed and overwhelmed and you could actually let those creative Juices Flow again and the doors can open so it's one of the reasons like I want to just consolidate close doors where they don't make sense in my life right now and then let myself focus on where things are really profitable and really doing well specifically like house hack absolutely dominating it they like especially with what happen in California with the fires let's just say a lot of our real estate probably went up in value because I'm just saying anyway so uh that's what I got for you if you want to join the courses on Building Wealth check them out over at Meek kevin.com we talk about the lines every day uh we talk about exactly you'll know about the two lines that the q's are playing right now and you know how to trade these two uh we'll talk uh sold calls sold puts you know short puts short calls basically uh and then also purchased uh you know long calls and puts anyway thank you so much for being here appreciate you al
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