저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 2018년 2월 증시 급락은 금리 상승 효과와 모멘텀 매도가 겹친 것으로, 조정(10%)이 올 수 있지만 장기적으로는 주식에 투자해야 한다는 견해. 시장 상황: 다우지수가 장중 약 700포인트 하락해 약 2.5% 떨어졌으나, 시그얼은 이를 큰 하락으로 보지 않음. 트럼프 당선 이후 다우가 40% 이상 올랐고 오늘 하락분은 그중 1.5% 수준이라고 설명. 금리 전망: 임금 상승률이 9년 만의 최고치를 기록하면서 연준의 금리 인상이 이어질 것으로 봄. 10년물 국채 금리가 3% 이상으로 오를 가능성을 언급. 장기채 2.84%는 여전히 매우 싸다고 평가하며, 3.25% 도달 가능성도 제시. 하락 원인: 법인세 인하 효과를 시장이 과도하게 선반영했고, 실적 실망이나 금리 상승 인식이 겹치면 모멘텀 투자자들이 이익 실현 및 손절에 나서 하락이 촉발된다고 설명. 애플, 엑슨 등 일부 종목의 실적 기대 미달도 언급. 조정 가능성: 10% 조정이 올 수 있다고 보며, 작년 12월에 올해 중 조정을 예측했다고 언급. 다만 이번이 그 시점인지는 확실히 알기 어렵다고 함. 위험과 투자자: 주식에는 본래 위험이 있고 쉬운 돈은 없다는 점을 개인투자자가 인식해야 한다고 강조. 단기 변동에 흔들리지 말고 장기적으로 안정적으로 투자하라고 조언. 주요 관점: 과열과 안일함이 금리 충격으로 깨졌으며, 이는 정상적인 조정 과정이라는 인식. 연준 전망: 고용이 강하면 연준이 금리 인상을 계속할 것이며, 임금 압력이 커질수록 긴축 부담이 늘어난다고 봄.
다듬은 글
professor what are you thinking today especially having seen this decline and I'm just curious what do you make of you know being down at one point almost 700 points in the dow simply from i'd like you to sort of what are you reflecting on as you watch all this play out today of course seven hundred points it's not what it used to be he I mean we're down two and a half percent on the Dow which is a big decline but you know it doesn't really reach the big leagues in terms of percentage I think what happened today was an interest rate effect I mean I think you know when that will and I just saw at 8:30 that wage year-over-year hitting a nine-year high I said while we're probably going to get for interest rate hikes we're going to see the 10-year probably go to three and past three and that's competition and then you have all these momentum players the ones that stick with the market no matter how high and they just jump off whenever their triggers are reached whenever their limits are reached and I think that something like this is not at all puzzling and I'm not at all surprised okay is it you said that places like Fang in the market are more vulnerable than others we were talking a moment ago about what is the cost of funds now for some of these companies and what do those multiples look like in the kind of scenario you're describing what do you think well I mean still you know he saw the long bond you know at two to 84 is so amazingly cheap even if it goes a 3 and a quarter which was actually last year what I said I thought would you reach at the end of this year but it does mean I mean we we overdid it at the end of last year and beginning of this year I mean I think we almost double counted the effect of the the corporate tax cut which is very very positive but you were going up far more than what actually earnings were going to rise as a result of the tax cut itself so all you need is a few disappointments or the realization interest rates are going to rise you know we talked about you know no Apple particularly Exxon while that was not expected and you know then people say okay I'm going to take my profits and stops are triggered and you get this sort of decline will this turn into a correction ten percent it could I did predict last December we were going to have it this year sometime it's really hard to know whether this is actually going to be that time or not professors taking a hike again thanks yeah my going in you know it's interesting you talk about how yes sure we can get it at ten percent correction when you talk about it when anyone talks about it it sounds like something that's routine but you know we haven't we're still up here to date last year we were up here to date literally every single day of the year we've had a couple of times when we have had two years in a row well you never traded negative year today but I just wonder what it means for the retail investor of mindset who maybe just got comfortable going into stocks because the economic news finally seemed good does this destabilize that that effect right there or the retail investor deciding okay it's safe again no I think it's I think you have to realize you know all stocks you know the half risks I mean I think since Trump was elected I think the Dow was up over 40% it gave up to one and a half percent today of that of that huge rise so Wow we are still way way up there and it's you know every day is not going to be an update and I'm actually glad that people realize hey there is risk in the stock market there is no absolute guarantee of easy money there you know invest soundly and for the long run and down don't get overly blinded by these short-run fluctuations and for us or anything your dad about where it you think the interest rate is going to and the tenure we've talked about over three percent yeah is it the the level is it the speed that you're most focused on or is it what the Fed does well I mean the Fed is going to follow it up if we got 200,000 we got a strong payroll and I mean the unemployment rate did not tick down this time but with 200,000 it's going to tip down to four three nine three eight and each time it absorbs that that's more wage pressure that's more cost pressure and that means the Fed has to step on the pedal at that particular point and I think that what just happened people say okay we work everyone is saying where is that wage increase where is it gone all of a sudden people say oh it might be here and I think that complacency the loss of feeling hey it's not going to come for a long time got shaken today and you saw it in the market Jeremy Siegel thanks for joining us we last year what I said I thought would you reach at the end of this year but it does mean I mean we we overdid it at the end of last year and beginning of this year I mean I think we almost double counted the effect of the the corporate tax cut which is very very positive but you were going up far more than what actually earnings were going to rise as a result of the tax cut itself so all you need is a few disappointments or the realization interest rates are going to rise you know we talked about you know Apple particularly Exxon while that was not expected and you know then people say okay I'm going to take my profits and stops are triggered and you get this sort of decline will this turn into a correction 10% it could I did predict last December we were gonna have it this year sometime it's really hard to know whether this is actually gonna be that time or not professor seeing a hike again thanks giggling in you know it's interesting you talk about how yes sure we can get it at that 10 percent correction when you talk about it when anyone talks about it it sounds like something that's routine but you know we haven't we're still up here to date last year we were up here to date literally every single day of the year we've had a couple of times when we have had two years in a row when you never traded negative year today but I just wonder what it means for the retail investor mindset who maybe just got comfortable going into stocks because the economic news finally seemed good does this destabilize that that effect right theory and that's competition and then you have all these momentum players the ones that stick with the market no matter how high and they just jump off whenever there triggers are reached whenever their limits are reached and I think that something like this is not at all puzzling and I'm not at all surprised okay is it is it that places like thing in the market are more vulnerable than others we were talking a moment ago about what is the cost of funds now for some of these companies and what do those multiples look like in the kind of scenario you're describing what do you think well I mean still you know he saw the long bond you know at two to eighty four is so amazingly cheap even if it goes to 3 and a quarter which was actual the retail investor deciding okay it's safe again I think it's I think you have to realize you know all stocks you know the half risk I mean I think since Trump was elected I think the Dow was up over 40 percent it gave up to one and a half percent today of that of that huge rise so Wow we are still way way up there and it's you know every day is not going to be an update and I'm actually glad that people realize hey there is risk in the stock market there is no absolute guarantee of easy money there you know invest soundly and for the long run and down don't get overly blinded by these short-run fluctuations and for us or anything your dad about where it you think the interest rate is going to on the tank professor what are you thinking today especially having seen this decline and I'm just curious what do you make of you know being down at one point almost 700 points in the Dow simply from I'd like you to sort of what are you reflecting on as you watch all this play out today you know of course 700 points is that what it used to be I mean we're down two and a half percent on the Dow which is a big decline but you know it doesn't really reach the big leagues in terms of percentage I think what happened today was an interest rate effect I mean I think you know when that will and I saw at 8:30 that wage year-over-year hitting a nine-year high I said while we're probably going to get for interest rate hikes we're going to see the 10-year probably go to 3 and pass for
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