저자: Ferrer Ivory · 외국인
다듬은 글
the Dow hitting a record high with the S&P and the Nasdaq sitting just below their all-time highs as well let's bring engineering and Brian Scotland your traders today Jim let's start with you what do you make of today's moves market just wants to go higher I'm still a ball I'm less confident of a bowl I do think the Fed is gonna talk somewhat dovish tomorrow in the back of my head I believe that they can't really tighten aggressively or at least say that they're gonna until they can ascertain what the economic ramifications were of these two hurricanes so I think right now even though they might talk like they're still gonna hike this year I'm hoping that they're gonna do it in a fairly so it was wrapping in kind of dovish bubble wrap so to speak Brian what are your thoughts is this basically does it end up being a non-event well I think to some degree it will because I think it'll be a little bit of wait-and-see until we get to the end of the year but I think when you take a look at the market structure in the environment with volatility the VIX around 10:00 here we're talking about no volatility no fear in the marketplace Korea can shoot off missiles and people don't care the market still pushes higher and I think the feds got to look at that and say wait a second this might be the time if we're ever gonna start to move rates higher now is the time we've printed over two trillion dollars in the m2 money supply since 2008 and now we're starting to see a little bit of tick up in prices on the commodities side we're not seeing wage growth yet but I think they have to say and say listen the market structure can handle a right hike right now why not take advantage of it all right well the stock market's latest string of all-time highs could be giving investors false sense of security market watcher Marc Faber often hailed as the original Doctor Doom is not backing down from his correction warning Marc joins us live on the phone he's the editor and publisher of the gloom boom and doom report newsletter Marc great to have you thank you for having me give us your updated view on the markets as I mentioned at the top of the show the market continues to climb higher what's your stance right now well basically my view has been that the market may go higher but a correction is long overdue and that is the US market continues to go higher other markets are more attractive I'm just looking here Italy this year year today is up 32% and in Asia we have many markets that are up between 20 and 30 percent including surprise surprise South Korea is up 27 percent in dollar terms so then less worried about war then maybe some portfolio managers are in the US or international observers and maybe they didn't take the words of mr.
Trump terribly seriously marker is still looking for a correction here in the United States in the range of 40 percent or so yes I think a lot of stocks have actually gone down by 40 percent some have come to zero because in the retailing space we have a lot of bankruptcies so yeah I think the markets are very high the palms markets around the world are very high very stretched especially in Europe the completely artificial as they are in Japan the dollar was way over bought at the turn of the year now it slightly oversold don't forget that in Euros the US stock market is actually down this year not up so the taller weakness has led to also stocks in the u.s.
moving up I think the dollar may rebound but over the next two to five years I would look for a much much weaker dollar jamario mark we keep we keep talking about a tax plan that's gonna change corporate taxes to 15% and limit new regulations get rid of some old regulations if a tax link comes in that really hits 15% and I'm saying if it does does that change the way you think - aren't all those corporations that you think are overvalued become a lot less overvalued in that situation well I think someone would have to pay for corporate tax rate of 15% and don't forget in the u.s.
what is the stated tax rate of course operation and what is the effective tax rate are quite different things in the u.s. the effective tax rate for the corporate sector is about 21% I don't think that this will change the needle or move the needle very much needles he say is the u.s. introduced basic income and I think in 2020 you will see that this will be a topic of discussion during the election the basic income universal basic income so hold your universal basic income are you saying that would be a positive thing you're a proponent of universal basic income not the way it will be implemented but in principle I'm not completely opposed to it provided the welfare state in its present existence is this mantle but what will happen is they will introduce at some point universal basic income and maintain the welfare state which will be extremely negative certainly for the taller so I'd say that's not just about saying that sounds like a firestorm for the dollar if the dollar breaks below this 90 level and you think the dollar is growing weaker where do you think the dollar could go if we implemented those things well easily within the next twelve months down another ten percent but as I said right now the speculators are heavily short the dollar and the commercials have actually moved to a long position so I think that the dollar rebound is likely especially against the yen and talking about the market one market that has lagged behind just about everything are is the Japanese stock market and it's just broken out on the upside recently and I think in the last few months of we could get the big move in Japanese stocks on the upside brian stalin yeah mark so one other thing just to touch back on the stock market in your prediction of a major correction here of 30 or 40 percent if you took the ten lowest volatile years in the S&P since it's a Great Depression every one of those had double-digit year-over-year returns we're getting extremely low volatility what is going to be this big event that is going to cause this decoupling and liquidity where you're gonna get a 30 or 40 percent sell-off in the market because I just don't see that right now yes you're right you don't see it and I don't see it and nobody sees it that's why people keep on buying stocks and yet something will happen one day I think it may very well come from a credit event or it may come from the disclosure of a major fraud or it may come because interest rates start to go up although central banks remain on the dovish side there are many events that can trigger or many small events that can trigger a decline I mean in 2009 when stocks bottomed out I can tell you that not many people so why stocks would go up and now it's the opposite the sky is clear corporate profits has been expanding their good interest rates are low but valuations are very high that we have to see hardly anywhere in the world they are low really low valuation a mark there are some exceptions but in general stocks and bonds are fully priced mark let me ask you if there was one thing that you could buy right now at this moment what would it be well I think relative to everything else and it's moved into a correction period I think precious metals are not terribly expensive I think agricultural commodities are inexpensive I think emerging markets some of them have performed superbly like Mexico is up 30% this year turkeys up 30% Poland 40% and servers but by and large there is better value in emerging markets than in the u.s.
except if the S&P drops 20 percent everything will go down except maybe precious metals and commodities okay mark great oh sorry 50 stocks are reasonably priced okay great to have you thank you for sharing your point of view and of course we'll have you back again at soon thank you very much bye-bye Jim let's get straight to it you're trading the market for me after that interview I mean he always says he thinks the markets going down you don't right and he always he always ends up depressing me and there's things I don't disagree with that he says but I in the short term I'm syllable as I said before if the market trades 2506 last I looked there was just about a half tick above where we're trading right now to me that's an indication of short-term momentum is still intact I think that's a spot to get in with a target at 25 22 on the upside trade back below 24 95 is where I'd wipe myself out Brian reaction yeah we haven't seen that that increase in volatility in this marketplace we still see it declining contracting there is no fear right now the momentum still is to the upside I love this trade I think the market continues to go higher okay let's get the risk/reward on this one Jim is buying the S&P at 2506 you start getting a move to 25 22 each point in the trade is worth 50 so he's risking five hundred and fifty dollars to make 800 you but ER mark great to have you thank you for having me give us your updated view on the markets as I mentioned at the top of the show the market continues to climb higher what's your stance right now well basically my view has been that they are the market may go higher but a correction is long overdue and that is the US market continues to go higher other markets are more attractive I'm just looking here Italy this year year today is up 32% and in asia we have many markets that are up between 20 and 30 percent including surprise surprise South Korea is up 27% in dollar terms the Dow hitting a record high with the S&P and the Nasdaq sitting just below their all-time highs as well let's bring in general and Brian Scotland dear traders today Jim let's start with you what do you make of today's moves market just wants to go higher I'm still a ball I'm less confident of a bowl I do think the Fed is gonna talk somewhat dovish tomorrow because in the back of my head I believe that they can't really tighten aggressively or at least say that they're gonna until they can ascertain what the economic ramifications were of these two hurricanes so I think right now even though they might talk like they're still gonna hike this year I'm hoping that they're gonna do it in a fairly so it was wrapping in kind of Dulwich bubble wrap so to speak Brian what are your thoughts is this basically does it end up being a non-event well I think to some degree it will because I think it'll be a little bit of wait-and-see until we get to the end of the year but I think when you take a look at the market structure in the environment so then let's worried about war then maybe some portfolio managers are in the US or international observers and maybe they didn't take the words of mr.
Trump terribly seriously mark are you still looking for a correction here in the United States in the range of 40 percent or so yes I think a lot of stocks have actually gone down by 40 percent some have come to zero because in the retailing space we have a lot of bad rough seas so yeah I think the markets are very high the bond markets around the world are very high very stretched especially in Europe the completely artificial as they are in Japan the dollar was way over bought at the turn of the year now it slightly oversold don't forget that in euros the US stock market is actually down this year not up so the taller weakness has led to also stocks in the u.s.
moving up I think the dollar may rebound but over the next two to five years I would look for a much much weaker dollar jamario mark we keep we keep talking about a tax plan that's gonna change corporate taxes to 15% and limit new regulations get rid of some old regulations if a tax plan comes in that really hits 15% and I'm saying if it does I mean with volatility the VIX around 10 here we're talking about no volatility no fear in the marketplace Korea can shoot off missiles and people don't care the market still pushes higher I think the feds got to look at that and say wait a second this might be the time if we're ever gonna start to move rates higher now is the time we've printed over two trillion dollars in the m2 money supply since 2008 and now we're starting to see a little bit of tick up in prices on the commodities side we're not seeing wage growth yet but I think they have to say and say listen the market structure can handle a right hike right now why not take advantage of it all right well the stock market's latest string of all-time highs could be giving investors false sense of security market watcher Marc Faber often hailed as the original Doctor Doom is not backing down from his correction warning Marc joins us live on the phone he's the editor and publisher of the gloom boom and doom report news
Comments 0