저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 원자재, 특히 유가와 금이 상승할 것이라며 강세를 보이고, 채권은 거대한 버블이라 인플레이션과 금리 인상으로 터질 것이라고 주장한다. 원자재 전반: 2011년 고점 이후 원자재와 원자재 기업들이 하락 추세였으나 최근 하락 추세선을 돌파했고, 원자재와 원자재주 모두에 긍정적이라고 본다. 주식시장보다 원자재를 더 강세로 본다. 인플레이션과 중앙은행: 그동안 주식, 채권, 부동산에 머물던 인플레이션이 생산자물가·소비자물가로 드러나면서 중앙은행과 투자자에게 문제가 될 것이라고 주장한다. 채권: 전 세계 채권시장에 거대한 버블이 있으며 오랫동안 부풀어 왔다. 공매도 시도자들의 무덤이 많지만 지금은 버블에 베팅하기엔 이르고, 버블을 터뜨리는 것은 성장이 아니라 인플레이션과 이를 막기 위한 중앙은행의 금리 인상이라고 본다. 미국은 성장은 없어도 인플레이션은 나타날 것이라는 취지다. 미국채 금리는 상승(채권가격 하락) 쪽에 무게가 실린다. 유가(WTI·브렌트): 현재 WTI·브렌트 모두 60달러 이상이며 가격은 더 오를 것으로 본다. WTI 63달러 이상, 혹은 70달러 부근을 넘으면 빠르게 약 20달러 추가 상승할 수 있다고 한다. 과거 유가 하락의 원인은 셰일 생산보다 2014~2015년 달러 강세였다고 주장한다. 달러 약세가 재개되면 유가가 신고점을 경신할 것이며, 과거 고점 140~150달러를 넘을 가능성도 있다고 본다. 작년 달러는 14년 만의 최대 하락, 위안화 대비 9년 만의 최대 하락을 기록했고, 2018년 달러/위안이 사상 최저를 찍을 수 있으며 이는 중국의 원자재 수요를 키울 것이라 본다. 달러: 달러지수는 2008년 저점 약 70 수준까지 내려갈 수 있고, 그 경우 60 이하로도 갈 수 있다고 전망한다. 이때 달러 표시 유가는 사상 최고를 갈아치울 수 있다고 한다. 다만 명확한 기간은 언급하지 않았고 2018년 중 발생을 단정하지는 않았다. 금·은: 금 가격(약 1320달러)은 여전히 지나치게 낮다고 보며, 모든 통화 대비 더 오를 여지가 크다고 주장한다. 금과 은을 매수하라고 권한다. 암호화폐는 바닥이 빠지기 전에 이익을 실현해 실물 금으로 바꾸라고 조언하며, 디지털 가짜 금이라고 비판한다. 기타: 남부 한파가 감귤류 생산에 영향을 줄 수 있으나 허리케인 엠마로 이미 타격을 받아 영향을 정확히 알기 어렵다고 말한다. 그는 이후 푸에르토리코로 이동해 5월까지 머문다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
what's in store for oil silver and other commodities going into the new year let's ask Peter chef's the CEO of euro pacific capital who joins us from connecticut peter happy new year and thanks for being with us again we've certainly had a crazy good equity markets in the last 13 months or more what about commodity marker markets going on so far in last year or so and going on in the future well I'm very bullish on commodities in fact more so than on most stock markets particularly in the United States you know commodities had been in bear markets up until I think just recently we've broken out of some rather substantial down friends that had been in place not just for commodities in general but for commodity companies may these companies have been heading down since 2011 when a lot of commodities peaked and we've seen some down trends break there as well so as an investor in both commodities and commodity stocks I think things look very encouraging but I think you know overall a lot of the inflation that investors were happy to have manifests itself in asset markets like stocks and bonds and real estate I think a lot of that inflation is now gonna finally rear its head in places where a lot of investors aren't going to be happy especially central banks when they start to see their inflation handiwork showing up you know in producer prices and consumer prices that's gonna be a lot of problems for for investors and the banks yeah although we did have some people on recently Peter and talking about how they're they're pretty bullish on the bond markets going forward what are your specific thoughts on on bonds well you know you have a major bubble worldwide in bonds and obviously that bubble has been inflating for many years and so you know the graveyards are littered with corpses of people who have tried to short that bubble and I you know I couldn't tell you that it's impossible for the bubble to get bigger I mean it certainly is possible but I wouldn't want to be betting on it at this stage and you know betting against it I know it hasn't been a winning bet but you know it's some point that bets gonna pay off big-time and I have a feeling that it's not too far off and you know it's not growth that's gonna be pricking the bond market bubble it's going to be inflation and central banks being forced to raise interest rates despite the fact that in many countries particularly United States the economic growth won't be there but the inflation will absolutely but thank you for that that on bonds us real quick so back to commodities let's talk about oil both WTI West Texas Intermediate and and Brent still over 60 bucks there's about a six dollar spread between the two what do you think's going on now and what do you think is gonna happen in the future in oil yeah well I think the oil prices are going higher I mean we've broken through some key levels I think once we get really in West Texas I think once we get above 63 maybe above 70 or so in Brent I think we can have another major move up maybe another twenty bucks very quickly you know what really drove the price of oil down was not you know massive production coming from the Bakken in the United States you know it wasn't a hydraulic fracking that really did it it was the huge move up in the US dollar in 2014 or 2015 that's what broke the back of the crude oil market and I think dollar weakness renewed dollar weakness is gonna be what's gonna send crude prices ultimately to new highs I mean the high for crude was up around 140 to 150 and I think before this bull market ends we will take that high out because it is gonna be a function of the dollar and last year was the first year in five that the dollar declined it was the biggest decline for the dollar in 14 years it was the biggest decline against the Chinese yuan in nine years and I think the yuan could be a big key to the price of oil going forward I think the US dollar could hit an all-time record low against the yuan in 2018 and I think that will drive a tremendous demand for commodities in China including for oil Peter I want to circle back in case I miss something I wanna make sure I got it right did you say you thought boy could could break new records well not next year but I think ultimately we're going to make new all-time record highs above 100 because I expect new yes because I expect new all-time lows in the dollar so if you go back to the dollar index for example the low for the dollar index in 2008 when oil was above 140 was about 70 right now the dollar index is about 92 I think the dollar in this is gonna take out 70 I think we're gonna go below 60 and I think when that happens you can easily see the price of oil in u.s.
dollars at a new all-time record I all right thank you for that that would be that would be really interesting if we get there even if it's not in the next year or so above that that high mark from 2008 okay let's get to a couple others I know you love talking about gold and we love hearing about it so last time we spoke I think gold was still below 1300 but above 1300 what say you about where we're going well we're going higher I mean we're about 1320 but you know gold prices are ridiculously low as far as I'm concerned in every currency you know gold had a decent year last year against the dollar it was up I don't know 12 13 % but it was actually down about a percent in terms of the Euro and you know if it were a choice between gold in the Euro I'd much rather own gold I think gold has a long way to go in terms of just about every currency on the planet I'm surprised that the prices are still so low but you know what they say about a gift horse so I you know I advise that people be buying gold be buying silver and if you're lucky enough or you were foolish enough or smart enough as the case may be to have bought a bunch of crypto currencies you know the before the bottom drops out of that market take those profits and and and use them to buy some real money some gold you know don't-don't-don't just hold on to this digital fool's gold you never disappoint now before we go we've only got about 30 seconds Peter but you know we've had that cold snap that continues actually and I know it's impacted citrus what are we seeing on some of the the commodities over there in particular orange juice etc at the Intercontinental exchange in New York yeah you know I don't watch it that closely I know that cold weather in the south is usually particularly bad for you know an artist use harvests and I think you know the growers down there already got clobbered though from Hurricane Emma so you know III don't know how much worse it's gonna be where you're freezing what didn't get destroyed in the in the hurricane but personally you know I'm headed down to Puerto Rico tomorrow and I'll be there in through May so at least I'm finally getting out of the cold weather here in New England then you know it's I actually think I've overstayed my welcome up here well you have no go you have not overstayed your welcome with us at boom-bust here we thank you so much for joining us maybe you'll give us a call even from Puerto Rico and report on how things get going down there yeah well the next time we do an interview I will be in my Puerto Rico studio so we have to set up a news line or something Peter Schiff CEO of euro pacific capital thanks so much for joining us as always my pleasure Ochs and bonds and real estate I think a lot of that inflation is now gonna finally rear its head in places where a lot of investors aren't gonna be happy especially central banks when they start to see their inflation handiwork showing up you know in producer prices and consumer prices that's gonna be a lot of problems for for investors and the banks yeah although we did have some people on recently Peter and talking about how they're they're pretty bullish on the bond markets going forward what are your specific thoughts on on bonds well you know you have a major bubble worldwide in bonds and obviously that bubbles been inflating for many years and so you know the graveyards are littered with corpses of people who have tried to short that bubble and I you know I couldn't tell you that it's impossible for the bubble to get bigger I mean it certainly is possible but I wouldn't want to be betting on it at this stage and you know betting against it I know it hasn't been a winning bet but you know at some point that bets gonna pay off dates you know wasn't hydraulic fracking that really did it it was the huge move up in the US dollar in 2014 or 2015 that's what broke the back of the crude oil market and I think dollar weakness renewed dollar weakness is gonna be what's gonna send crude prices ultimately to new highs I mean the high for crude was up around 140 to 150 and I think before this bull market ends we will take that high out because it is gonna be a function of the dollar and last year was the first year in five that the dollar declined it was the biggest decline for the dollar in 14 years it was the biggest decline against the Chinese yuan in nine years and I think the yuan could be a big key to the price of oil going forward I think the US dollar could hit an all-time record low against the yuan in 2018 and I think that will drive a tremendous demand for commodities in China including for oil Peter I would have a circle back in case I miss something I want to make sure I got it right did you say you thought oil could could break new records well not next what's in store for oil silver and other commodities going into the new year let's ask Peter Schiff the CEO of euro pacific capital who joins us from Connecticut Peter Happy New Year and thanks for being with us again we've certainly had a crazy good equity markets in the last 13 months or more what about commodity marker markets going on so far in the last year or so and going on in the future well I'm very bullish on commodities in fact more so than on most stock markets particularly in the United States and of commodities had been in bear markets up until I think just recently we've broken out of some rather substantial down friends that had been in place not just for commodities in general but for commodity companies may these companies have been heading down since 2011 when a lot of commodities peaked and we've seen some down trends break there as well so as an investor in both commodities and commodity stocks I think things look very encouraging but I think you know overall a lot of the inflation that investors were happy to have man fest itself in asset markets like stockier but I think ultimately we're going to make new all-time record highs above 100 because I expect new yes because I expect new all-time lows in the dollar so if you go back to the dollar index for example the low for the dollar index in 2008 when oil was above 140 was about 70 right now the dollar index is about 92 I think the dollar in this is gonna take out 70 I think we're gonna go below 60 and I think when that happens you can easily see the price of oil in US dollars at a new all-time record high alright thank you for that that would be that would be really interesting if we get there even if it's not in the next year or so above that that high mark from 2008 okay let's get to a couple others I I know you love talking about gold and we love hearing about it so last time we spoke I think gold was still below 1300 but above 1300 what say you about where we're going well we're going higher I mean we're about 1320 but you know gold prices are ridiculously low as far as I'm concerned in a time and I have a feeling that it's not too far off and you know it's not growth that's gonna be pricking the bond market bubble it's going to be inflation and central banks being forced to raise interest rates despite the fact that in many countries particularly the United States the economic growth won't be there but the inflation will absolutely but thank you for that that on bonds us real quick so back to commodities let's talk about oil both WTI West Texas Intermediate and and Brent still over 60 bucks there's about a six dollar spread between the two what do you think's going on now and what do you think's gonna happen in the future in oil yeah well I think oil prices are going higher I mean we've broken through some key levels I think once we get really in West Texas I think once we get above 63 maybe above 70 or so in Brent I think we can have another major move up maybe another 20 bucks very quickly you know what really drove the price of oil down was not you know massive production coming from the Bakken in the United
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