저자: BillGross · 외국인
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결론: 25년간 지속된 채권 강세장은 끝났고, 금리는 완만하게 상승할 가능성이 크다. [금리 방향 전망] 향후 10년물 금리는 연내 10~30bp 상승할 것으로 보며, 이는 급격한 약세장이 아닌 '디카페인 약세장'이다. [상승 근거] 미국 명목성장률이 최근 4~5년 4%에서 세제 개편과 재정적자 확대로 약 5%까지 높아질 수 있다. 미 재무부 순발행은 2018년 5천억달러에서 1조달러로 두 배 가까이 늘어날 것으로 본다. [중앙은행 유동성 축소] 연준뿐 아니라 ECB가 양적완화를 절반으로 줄이고 연말 완전 중단할 예정이다. 2012~2017년 5년간 주요 중앙은행 양적완화 규모는 약 14조달러였으며, 이 유동성 공급이 멈추면 금리 상승 압력이 생긴다. [중국 관련] 중국이 미 국채를 투매하는 것은 아니며, 포트폴리오 다변화(영국 gilt, 독일 bund, 스페인 채권 확대)를 하고 있다. 중국 중앙은행·재정당국도 지난 3~4년간의 채권 매입 기조를 줄일 가능성이 있다. [채권 투자자 영향] 과거 10년물 금리 저점은 2016년 6월 약 1.45%였으며, 이후 고수익채 스프레드 축소로 채권 자본이득 여지는 작아졌다. 향후 채권 기대수익률은 연 0~1% 수준으로 낮을 전망이며, 이는 약세장은 아니지만 수익이 거의 없는 시장이다. [리스크] 금리 상승 방향이 예상되는 한편, 경기 둔화나 연준 개입 시 변수가 될 수 있다. [출연자 전망] Bill Gross는 채권 강세장 종료와 완만한 금리 상승을 전망한다.
다듬은 글
it's like your tanker analogy very slow-moving and I use an analogy in terms of coffee it's not a strong Colombian bear market it's a decaffeinated bear market were on the 10-year probably rise by 10 to 20 to 30 basis points for the year but nonetheless it means that the yields are probably moving higher as opposed to lower which they have been for the bulk of the 25 year period did you cite now what do I see that that presents that possibility first of all I see nominal growth in the United States increasing from where it's been at four percent for the last four or five years to maybe five percent due to tax cuts and an increasing deficit I see the US Treasury and this is interesting I haven't heard this yet on Newswires increasing from a five hundred billion dollar net issuance to a trillion dollar net issuance in 2018 primarily because of the deficit and I see central banks not just the Fed but central banks cutting back on their quantitative easing the ECB is cutting theirs and half and by the end of the year they entirely eliminate it and so the the flush of money is being met with a flush of supply and that produces higher interest rates well you've got two reasons also that rates would go up and I'm oversimplifying it bill I understand that but here they are I mean you got the sort of the economic story right to your point things are kind of humming along maybe the Fed gets involved or you've got selling pressure and I know that you have said that you believe today that you were seeing some evidence that China was selling or even dumping US Treasuries so what is the cause of this back up in in yields well China I believe they're not they're not liquidating Treasuries that get a huge portfolio and in the trillion-plus area but they are trying to diversify their portfolio and that means more gilts that means more buns that means more Spanish Bono's and so you know central banks in the Chinese central bank and the Chinese fiscal Authority you know are probably in the area of reducing their that they have for the past three or four years and that Commandments been huge Brian over the past five years quantitative easing in total from all these central banks has been about 14 trillion dollars and so if we posit that in September or October that much of this it doesn't go away but it stops increasing then you know the pressure for slightly higher yields that's probably with us so bill Tyler here you know how much you say this bill this boom is bear market maybe not a robusto but something a little more calm than that but but how much is it gonna hurt daddy I mean what am I going to do with my with my bond fund shares that I've been shoveling money into well that's a good question and and last year and the year before you know the the 10-year Treasury bottom does Rick Santelli accurately points out in June of 2016 at 1:45 and so theoretically 255 would have produced a significant bear market but with high-yield bonds adding to the pot you know bond investors have basically been satisfied with a four to five percent annual return and they haven't seen a or felt a bear bond market now with high yield spreads so compressed I don't think there's much room for further capital gains and with yields where they are you know I think bonds produce a return of zero to one percent and is that a bear market no but it's a market where investors don't get much of a return go up and I'm oversimplifying it bill I understand that but here they are I mean you've got the sort of the economic story right to your point things are kind of humming along maybe the Fed gets involved or you've got selling pressure and I know that you have said that you believe today that you were seeing some evidence that China was selling or even dumping US Treasuries so what is the cause of this back up in in yields well China I believe they're not they're not liquidating Treasuries they get a huge portfolio and in the trillion-plus area but they are trying to diversify their portfolio and that means more gilts that means more boons that means more Spanish it's like your tanker and very slow moving and I use an analogy in terms of coffee it's not a strong Columbian bear market it's a decaffeinated bear market were on the tenure probably rise by 10 to 20 to 30 basis points for the year but nonetheless it means that the yields are probably moving higher as opposed to lower which they have been for the bulk of the 25 year period did you say now what do I see that the presents that possibility first of all I see nominal growth in the United States increasing from where it's been at 4% for the last four or five years to maybe five percent due to tax cuts and Bono's and so you know central banks and the Chinese central bank and the Chinese fiscal Authority you know are probably in the area of reducing their commitment that they have for the past three or four years and that commitments been huge Brian over the past five years quantitative easing in total from all these central banks has been about 14 trillion dollars and so if we posit that in September or October that much of this it doesn't go away but it stops increasing then you know the pressure for slightly higher yields is probably with us so bill Tyler here you know how much you say this an increasing deficit I see the US Treasury and this is interesting I haven't heard this yet on Newswires increasing from a 500 billion dollar net issuance to a trillion dollar net issuance in 2018 primarily because of the deficit and I see central bank's not just the Fed but central banks cutting back on their quantitative easing the ECB is cutting theirs and half and by the end of the year they entirely eliminate it and so that the flush of money is being met with a flush of supply and that produces higher interest rates well you've got two reasons also that rates would bill this bull most bear market maybe not a robust o but something a little more calm than that but but how much is it gonna hurt daddy I mean what am I gonna do with my with my bond fund shares that I've been shoveling money into well that's a good question and and last year and the year before you know the the 10-year Treasury bottom does Rick Santelli accurately points out in June of 2016 at 1:45 and so theoretically 255 would have produced a significant bear market but with high-yield bonds adding to the pot you know bond investors have basically been satisfied
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