[ Marc Faber ] // Stock market plunge of 40% or more

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결론: 마크 파버는 나스닥 랠리가 소수 대형 기술주에 의존해 취약하며, 최악의 경우 40% 하락을 경고하고 유럽 주식을 미국 주식보다 선호한다. 시장 경고: 최근 엔비디아·넷플릭스·애플 등 주도주가 급락했고, 파버는 앞서 은행주와 관련주가 하루 이틀 사이 10% 빠질 수 있다고 말했다. 나스닥 근거: 나스닥이 2000년 고점을 넘었다고 하지만 현재 지수를 끌어올린 구글(2004 상장), 페이스북(2012 상장), 세일즈포스(2004 상장) 등은 2000년 지수에 편입되지 않았던 종목이다. 인텔·야후는 2000년 대비 여전히 약 절반 수준이다. 기술주 리스크: 기술은 혁신과 신규 경쟁자에 취약하며, 현재 지수를 견인하는 은행주 등이 향후 5~10년간 유지될지 의문이라고 봤다. 트럼프 효과: 주도주 교체가 일어났거나 이미 일어났을 수 있으며, 유럽 증시는 영국을 제외하고 올해 미국을 상회해 16~20% 상승했다. 유럽 선호: 유럽 기업 이익률은 미국보다 낮지만 회복 조짐이 있고 밸류에이션이 낮아 미국 주식보다 유럽 주식을 사겠다고 했다. 채권 언급: 스위스 등 유럽 일부 국채는 금리가 낮거나 마이너스지만 미국 10년물은 2% 이상이라 안전 쿠션이 있다고 봤다. 리스크: 은행주·기술주 조정 가능성, 유럽 뉴스 흐름의 불확실성. 출연자 전망: 40% 폭락 가능성을 언급했으나 구체적 기간은 명시되지 않았다.

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01. you you kind of scared me recently and when you wrote that you could see stocks falling 40% from present levels in other words roughly cutting what we got right now and almost half why are you so bearish well first of all we had on June a nine a break and it's interesting that the week before I had come out and said that these banks stocks and related stocks like Nvidia could easily dropped 10% in one or two days Nvidia was found 15% in today on to nine Netflix was down 10% Apple was down 9% III day and to us and some have recovered but some others have not recovered there's another question that I think many investors overlooks they say long the Nasdaq is at the new all-time high exceeding the high in year 2000 but it's driven by stocks that were not even in the index in year 2000 in other words Google went public in August 2004 next clicked in 2002 Facebook in 2012 sales force in 2004 these talks were not even in the index in 2000 and talked like Intel and Yahoo still about half as high as they were in 2000 technology is vulnerable to innovation and the new competitor and we don't know whether the current talks the bank stocks and related stuff that have driven the index higher the typical stock hasn't gone up a lot where these shocks will still be visiting five or ten years time so you have doubts about that sort of but mark a lot of people look at how much the market has run up since Donald Trump's election last November and how technology particulars benefit of virtually all sectors had are you saying the Trump effect is over now or what well not the necessarily what I'm saying is if you look for instance at today's market action the leaders that were pushing the market higher this year like the high tech stock that I just mentioned Amazon Netflix I also tell clients was all these stocks were down today and even if someone is very bullish on stock I think a change in leadership could a boxer or has occurred you look at European market as an example all the European markets have essentially outperformed the US this year we knew a solid four terms except for the food in Britain because the pound was the weak but other markets are between 16 and 20 percent and you see that trend into play you see that trend continuing to play out and if so then what are you buying in this environment what do you recommend investors listening to you now do well I I would rather buy european stocks than us stuff they're just a profit margin in europe are much lower than in DUI but they seem to be recovering and the news out of Europe is not exactly brilliant don't misunderstand me but it's starting to do some work so I think that European stops given their lower valuation than us stuff I mean Dan Loeb he both the big stakes in nicely the first food company these kind of talks are reasonably sized when you compare them to the prevailing interest rate in Europe in the case of this place yield 2.7 percent insulin to the 10 years from at the negative interest so you have some cushion of safety in the US Treasury still over two percent all right mark thanks I think it's always good tapping you're fine brain mark favor the gloom and doom report he's one of them in 2012 sales force in 2004 these stocks were not even in the index in 2000 and talked like Intel and Yahoo still about half as high as they were in 2000 technology is vulnerable to innovation and new competitors and we don't know whether the current stocks the bank stocks and related top that have driven the index higher the typical stock hasn't gone up a lot where these shops will still be visiting five or 10 years time so you are doubts about that sort of but mark a lot you you kind of scared me recently and when you wrote that you could see stocks falling 40% from present levels in other words roughly cutting what we've got right now in almost half why are you so bearish well first of all we had on June a nine a break and it's interesting that the week before I had come out and said that these banks stocks and related stocks like Nvidia could easily drop 10 percent in one or two days NVIDIA was found 15 percent in today on to 9 Netflix was down 10% Apple was down 9 percent III day and to us and some have recovered but some others are just recovered there's another question that I think many investors overlooked they say look the Nasdaq is at the new all-time highs exceeding the high in year 2000 but it's driven by stocks that were not even Indian Dec in year 2000 in other words Google went public in August 2004 next clicked in 2002 faithful people look at how much the market has run up since Donald Trump's election last November and how technology particulars benefit of virtually all sectors have or are you saying that the Trump effect is over now or what well not necessarily what I'm saying is if you look for instance at today's market action the leaders that were pushing the market higher this year like the high tech stocks that Isis vention Amazon Netflix I also test line service all these stocks were down today and even if someone is very bullish on stock I think it's changing leadership could occur or has occurred you look at European markets as an example all the European market have a sense the outperform the US this year we knew a solid four terms except for the food in Britain because the pound was the week but other markets are between 16 and 20 pence and you see that trend interplay you see that trend continuing to play out and if so then what are you buying in this environment what do you recommend investors listening to you now do well I I will draw the pie