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8월 이후 시장 과열을 경고하며 하락 촉매 7~8개를 날짜순으로 제시. 머니서플라이 급증·모기지 유예·백신 기대감이 과열 원인. 12/2 하원 표결, 12/11 예산안, 12월 헤지펀드 리밸런싱, 12/26~31 실업급여·모라토리엄 종료, 1/5 조지아 결선, 부동산 퇴거 위기(10~15% 하락 가능성) 등을 언급. 현재는 마진 상환 및 현금 대기, 하락 시 인덱스 바스켓에서 할인 기술주로 전환 전략 제시.
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quick reminder stocks nd feel free to email me if you'd like to bundle up kevin meet kevin.com hey everyone meet kevin here i'm pissed i've been collecting all my paychecks this month after obviously paying my expenses and i'm kind of sitting here dying to buy some stocks every freaking day has been green and green and green and green it's literally august all over again like the people on wall street bets who are like stocks don't go down i this stock is up 20 and i'm gonna buy it because it just doesn't go down they've kind of been right the last few weeks and it's like it really feels like august all over again and we all remember what happened after august well september happened see the market crashed right after the tesla bubble up for 20 days from that run-up we saw leading into the tesla split had a little bit of a bubble pop after tesla raised five billion dollars leading to nearly a month-long tech sell-off so what the heck is going to happen now is there any potential catalyst or reason for this to happen again well i really kind of hope there is not because i want anybody to suffer but because i want to buy more shift and lemonade and etsy and tesla and heck i'll even throw in some more peloton if we get some discounts but these companies are so expensive right now i want more square i want more qualcomm i want more docusign they're good but they're expensive we need some panic we need some blood in the streets and i don't want anybody getting hurt i don't want any actual pain i just want to see the numbers go down for a couple weeks so we could go shopping and then back up again okay that's all i ask for so what do we actually have on the horizon right now not only for the stock market but also for the real estate market because geez there's like no inventory right now real estate inventory was bad before coven now it's even worse it's there's nothing to buy right now it's terrible and as a result not only is the stock market euphoric but the real estate market is euphoric leading people to do cash out refinances on their houses and rental properties so they can buy more stocks at all-time highs well there are a few reasons for this and i'm going to hit the few reasons as to why this is happening but then i want to also get into seven important catalysts this is where you're going to want to take out your calendar again and really document what could potentially be coming down the pike so that way we're prepared and we know when it happens how to react to it all right so in terms of why this madness is happening let's be clear money supply has skyrocketed over 40 percent since march thanks well in part to the federal reserve and their money printer wants some more money pp loans stimulus payments fewer expenses as less people travel and not to mention housing forbearance which you could literally still get housing forbearance what do you think people are doing with all this extra money they're buying stocks like right now still today you could get 12 months worth of mortgage forbearance which means if you ordinarily pay 2 000 bucks a month over the next 12 months you could just put another 24 thousand dollars at two thousand dollars a month into the stock market go to metkevin.com forbearance to see my guide on that i get a step-by-step video on that but that's you know that's just that's one thing one sort of explanation in terms of why the market's so euphoric but the second thing is i mean it's obvious the vaccine news has been absolutely superb it's not just coveted vaccine news either it's the fact that this mrna delivery system for the coveted vaccine which is the technology that pfizer and moderna use to basically insert cassette chips into your body with instructions for your body those are game changers like i've said this before on this channel i want to make this really clear moderna and pfizer if you're going to buy pharmaceutical companies investing in this mrna technology could be a really good decision for the next few decades like it could be a huge decision the fact that the modernist ceo is saying yeah usually a pharmaceutical company will do like five to six drugs in 10 years yeah we might be able to do hundreds of drugs in the same time frame because of the mrna technology that makes you go oh crap the kova drug is nothing so personally i'm kind of waiting for the covid vaccine hype to go away basically when all the day traders get out because they're waiting for the fda approval and once that comes and the traders get out and take their profits who knows they might actually be able to have some opportunities to buy into pfizer and modern for a long run play we'll see but on top of those two things a lot more money in the market and this vaccine euphoria on top of that we've got election dynamics that ended up turning out to be tense but not violent and there wasn't a big democratic sweep which was expected we know this right this is kind of just recapping a little bit i really want to focus on the seven catalysts which i'm going to hit in just a moment but i want to say biden is kind of reiterating this because he's also now suggesting that he's going to keep super progressives like aoc or bernie sanders or you know elizabeth warren he's going to keep them in congress instead of potentially putting them into his presidential cabinet and this is making the market more confident that higher taxes and big democratic priorities might get back burnered until the economy is even stronger so and remember the economy's definitely not the stock market right now because the stock market is pretty strong so what's it gonna take to make this freaking market false we go shopping again what is it going to be well usually for the market to fall we need some form of a negative catalyst that sort of pricks the bubble so to speak and let some air out most recent fall we had was right after the election i'm sorry right before the election when everybody was panicking that the election was going to be a disaster i mentioned that you know bad news usually isn't as bad as we expect it to be and we're going to get so much more clarity once the election comes that before the election i said look take 70 to 80 of your cash and put it in the market before the election i'm glad we did that but you know we can't predict the future okay got lucky on that one yay but what do we do going forward well right now we've got to pay attention to these catalysts because remember what happened when tesla went skyrocketing for 21 days in a row which it does that the 14 to 21 day skyrocketing cycle well when it took a breather it went 38 gone like that it was fast and it doesn't have to you know it doesn't take a lot to make the markets freak out that's the other thing that can sometimes be scary that's why i like being super heavy into margin especially when things are so green green green green be careful dangerous don't let's talk about these negative catalysts and let's order them by date not by importance because i mean they're all important but they have different degrees of importance so i'm going to go through these by date there are seven of these and it's really important that while you write these things down but also make sure you eevil get four free stocks worth up to 1600 use the link down below you can trade after hours and pre-market hours by like four hours with weeble it's awesome and s well we're still in a pandemic but you could still get life insurance all right folks so first catalyst the s p announces their exact tesla inclusion plan on monday we're expecting tesla to potentially join the s p 100 as well as the s p 500 and on monday we will know exactly which dates index funds and indexers are expecting to make their purchases current rumors are that purchases may be due in two batches one by december 14th and won by december 21st depending on their announcement we might actually see some big shifts at tesla after this information comes out and once those dates come up we could potentially see traders who are euphoric about this inclusion idea bail out and take their profits which could be enough to let some air out of tesla and remember the last time it happened tesla fell like 37 so tesla's obviously ran up like 50 over the last couple weeks here you know we're on day 10 right now on a 14 to 21 day tesla run cycle so it seems to run in those patterns but anyway that is catalyst number one but really right now you just want to mark your calendar for monday i think they're doing their announcement at like 5 15 p.m after the market closes eastern standard time on monday whatever comes out after that we can now use those new dates and that new information we get to mark some new catalysts for when tesla might lose steam remember i blame tesla for the last tech sell-off then the second big catalyst congress next week the house of representatives are expecting to hold votes on december 2nd that's wednesday at 6 30 pm how congressmen and women and the senate respond to the votes being held in the house on wednesday likely regarding a government funding bill but to potentially also a stimulus bill we'll see well just rumor right now will likely help us understand well the odds of actually getting the government not to shut down and so and on stimulus so here's what we're fighting for three things one va funding that's kind of being thought on right now regarding this funding bill b renaming confederate sort of symbols and names and see whether or not we'll actually see that stimulus package so when it comes to a and b we're not really expecting those to make a government funding bill fall apart and all of a sudden the government's going to shut down over a and b and we're also expecting the stimulus package negotiation to kind of stand on the sidelines of the government funding negotiation so we're really probably going to see the government pass a funding bill by december 11th they think they're actually going to get something done much sooner because congress wants to take off earlier than usual mostly because there's covid going around at capitol hill they're like let's just bang out the government funding bill and go home on vacation or recess right not expecting the a and b issue the va funding issue and the renaming issue to actually end up tanking the market because the government doesn't get a funding bill done because of that so the current expectation is government funding bill check if there's anything that comes up next week though as a hiccup that says uh oh we might not actually get the government funded by december 11th and then we're gonna have a government shutdown and we're gonna lose a million jobs in layoffs right away that would be bad that could be a negative catalyst so paying attention to wednesday is going to kind of give us a little uh upfront look into what's going on based on how smoothly things go at the house you know house of representatives so come wednesday night if it's like oh house passed a funding bill and the senate is expecting to pass the same bills then there's probably no catalyst there because the market's already expecting this bill to get past your group of bills the omnibus spending package to get past uh only negative news is going to end up turning into a negative catalyst there which i guess makes sense but sometimes you would think like oh it's gonna be good news they passed the funding bill probably not i think most of that's already priced in however the other thing is we if we get as part of this next week voting session some sort of bridge stimulus package which biden has been pushing for and a lot of democrats and republicans are pushing for and we see something that's like hey here's a new stimulus package it's not as big and insane and large as what the democrats want and it's not as small and insanely tiny as what the republicans want but it's something in the middle that would be good that could actually be very very very good for the market see ironically in this case bad news on stimulus is basically no news for the market right now the market's kind of already like stimulus negotiations it's a stalemate but i watch them every single day and this is why i do those videos every single day on what congress is doing because i want to see when the trends are changing because that's going to be good to know for the market bad news i think is already priced in bad news on stimulus no surprise for the market if we get good news coming on stimulus though like new build is getting released tomorrow uh and this is what's gonna be in it and oh it's bipartisan and you get positive commentary from pelosi mcconnell that could be a big push for the market so i don't think stimulus is going to end up being bad uh you know an issue for the market the only way this whole section could be a negative catalyst really is if the government funding bill doesn't get passed and there's some sort of uh reason we missed the december 11th deadline but remember the house of representatives votes on december 2nd so we'll see exactly what it is they vote on we'll get to see what you know people on both sides are saying about this and then we'll know sort of a better idea of what the trajectory will be for this negative catalyst third negative catalyst this one's serious uh this one this one is one that that i think could be um all it takes to make the market bleed a little bit between december 15th possibly as early as december 10th i expect like right after the vaccine gets approved for distribution i would not be surprised at all to see hedge funds start taking massive profits and rebalance and rotate into bonds okay let me explain this at the end of every year hedge funds need to buff up their earnings on paper their realized gains why and don't do this personally because that means you have to pay taxes but remember hedge funds don't care they're just passing the cost on to you of the taxes right hedge funds use their yearly returns as marketing tools you get those pamphlets that's like look at our capital group it's up 80 percent this year those losers are only up 70 or that dummies only up 8 right that kind of like marketing brochure that everybody wants to put together you know right now the hedge funds are sitting in their marketing department going well this year we could do flyers that show we are up 89 if we just get another extra half percent of increases we could say we're up 90 oh but should we wait for 100 up ooh that'd be good for marketing too like literally you know these conversations are happening they are planning their 2021 marketing to get everybody to invest in their hedge fund these institutional investors selling to realize profits and then taking these fat gains and then rebalancing potentially into bonds because bonds bond prices have stayed really low relative to stocks and a lot of these hedge funds say oh yeah we we diversify you know we do 20 30 bonds or whatever well they're gonna have to move money from stocks into bonds well at least a lot of these hedge funds and institutions have bond exposure problem here is they sell rotate out of stocks we could potentially see a softening in stock prices combine this with some other catalysts hey maybe that's our buying opportunity something something interesting to keep an eye on it wouldn't surprise me to see those high-flying ev companies and tech companies to take a back seat for a few weeks while this rebalancing takes place or everything will just go to the moon and none of this matters we'll see but market on the calendar end of december can be funny fourth catalyst all right this one we've talked about this one before i'm going to keep this one light this is the december 26th through december 31st uh extended unemployment for workers ends december 26th unemployment for self-employed people ends december 26th people have to start paying their student loans again in january the eviction moratorium ends december 31st and other cares act provisions and bailouts and december 31st now we'll talk about real estate in just a moment and the eviction crisis and all that and how that relates to stocks but fear and uncertainty around these mass layoffs and people losing benefits could hurt the market though honestly the market is propped up so heavily right now by white-collar workers and white-collar spenders making more money working from home and spending less money on travel and really these are probably the people buying all the peloton bikes that it's quite possible that all these you know expirations at the end of the year will end up being like protests and riots were in june and july for the market aka bad news but something the market literally just shrugs off like that sounds horrible right people losing their unemployment benefits and their eviction protections terrible for those people for the market it it might just play right through that again horrible people suffering but we're talking about the market the market is it's just weird okay so keep that in mind that that will create uncertainty that time frame between the 26th and the end of the year there will be uncertainty because of that but i think that alone is not going to be enough to really pull this market down uh just because the market has this really weird attitude all right fifth catalyst all right this is an interesting one the january 5th the georgia runoff and potential trump 2024 announcement this is going to create a lot of uncertainty if polling data early polling data shows that democrats are likely to win the two senate seats left in georgia the market could literally freak out under the potent like bad this one could be bad too under the potential of a 50 50 tie in the senate which could only be broken by kamala harris who obviously she's going to vote for the democrats meaning that we could see democratic tax policies and democratic appointments and democratic judicial confirmations all happen with just 51 votes in the senate now the senate can't do everything with just 51 votes most bills require 60 votes to get through the senate but they could do a good chunk of stuff with 51.
right now the market is happy because it doesn't look like democrats are going to get georgia but but but if early polls show that democrats are starting to lead as misleading as polls can sometimes be the market could start trying to hedge for a democratic sweep meaning the market may try to take money off the table this would not be unreasonable towards the end of december especially if the polls get close and then you start getting things like you know trump going hey we're now rallying for a 2024 election we're gonna go campaign in georgia what that's going to do is going to set off biden and all the other democrats to come to georgia it's going to be all the rage for like a week the news of what happens in georgia and what if we have recounts in georgia again like that's going to be a stressful period of time for the market mark that one down it's already stressful just talking about it number six catalyst the real estate eviction crisis okay this has to do with housing but it is also going to affect stocks so so listen to this one if we get an eviction crisis i do not think we are going to see a foreclosure crisis but but but i do think there is going to be a v-shaped decline not like that v-shape up we usually talk about let's talk about a v shape decline in real estate prices for the first six months of 2020 week sorry 2021 so first six months of 2021 if we have an eviction crisis we could see a v-shaped decline a pullback of around 10 to 15 in the short term i i do think that real estate is going to flatten out or grow next year but this potential eviction crisis leading to my guess one to two million more units of real estate inventory coming on the market or like 15 to 30 more inventory could really be an opportunity to go shopping for real estate right now it's like you can't buy anything there's like nothing on the market it's it's it sucks right now this is why i'm sending postcards with deal machine go to medkevin.com deals to get your deal with deal machine check it out they're a good company uh but but no no seriously the last time we saw the real estate market get hammered was in the summer of 2018 when jerome powell was like whoa raise rights pissed off the stock mark or the real estate market a lot because home prices fell like 10 like instantly 10 to 14 it was crazy the stock market actually followed this news the stock market was a lot slower because well real estate data's slow like i started calling the real estate crash coming well being here because i saw it happening in real estate every single day in may of 2018.
really wasn't until like august or september that the news really started reporting how much real estate home prices had fallen which then led into uh you know the same time as us having china trade tensions and a real estate crisis it's kind of like the slow-moving giant ogre changing directions i'm going down yeah uh you know free upfront warning i guess that's why i watch it very closely but when you had those things combined you ended up having a pretty bloody november and december and 2018.
now like you zoom out in the last 10 10 years doesn't really matter i mean we're talking about do we want to buy this month or next month right we're really just we're looking into this small small lens here of of what's going on right now on the day-to-day but um yeah these are things that can help us get really good buy entry targets last thing we want to buy or do is buy like way at the top and then have no returns for the next year my pov at least okay so that's uh catalyst number six which by the way if you like my perspectives there's no reason for you not to be a part of my live streams every morning they're like 30 minutes long every every day the market is open we talk about what's going on today what my moves are which stocks i'm looking at uh you pay once and you're in it forever any of the courses linked down below can get you hands check them out you'll love it and you can also watch them on your own time like you don't actually have to be there at the live stream you can in fact go all the way back to my march live streams if you wanted to kind of see what uh what that was like feel like i'm putting money in the fire pit anyway as a seventh catalyst we have the r word coming again we might see a recession in the first quarter of 2021 as we weather the storm of covet i don't think this alone will cause the market to fall dramatically because we kind of already know it's coming but if the market's already declining because of madness happening in georgia and maybe democrats leading or democrats winning in georgia and then on top of that we get an eviction crisis we could really see quite a few of these catalysts compound right around christmas and well january of 2021 we we could have some real pain in the market oh and number eight this is kind of like an honorable mention even though it's not really honorable obviously if covet cases go nutso and it takes us long to get vaccines longer than expected and and more people start dying because we get way more cases and we break that 200 000 count consistently through december and january and things go nuts with covet obviously we know that's just going to amplify any of these other catalysts this is why a lot of me right now on my strategy for investing is you know bottom line kind of my strategy for investing right now is when the market is euphoric i pay off margin that way any margin i used i well you know i pay that off and i have it available in case the market falls again you know i could always pull my credit lines again i got all my rental property lines of credit paid off i'm gonna be paying off all my margin within the next four weeks again i pulled it a bit to buy some real estate but i'm done right now i got no other purchases going on uh and then well i do have to finish out one but i'm not buying anything new right now i'm kind of just on standby like okay let's get these things paid off and let's see what we got where can we go shopping again now if you don't have any debt to pay off potentially what you do is you invest your money into medkevin.com basket that's really just a balance of index funds so that way if the market crashes the index funds you know index funds usually don't crash as much as the individual like the high flying tech stocks do you might see like the dow or the s p go down two to three percent a day where you see certain tech companies fall like 10 to 20 percent this is why sometimes i like keeping cash over at the basket and then sort of as the market declines you rotate your money from the basket over into these discounted tech stocks something i like doing during the euphoric times but as always get out of minimize that debt first so there we have seven catalysts we've got what's going on seven catalysts for a market decline and my strategy right now this was a bit longer so if you made it this far consider sharing this with somebody you think would benefit from the information in this in this video her as always check out those courses down below and join me in the live streams thank you so much and we'll see you next time you
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