저자: Kevin · 외국인
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므누친 재무장관 사임 가능성과 옐런 재무장관 지명 소식을 다룸. 옐런은 중도 성향으로 연준과 정책 공조 가능성이 높고, 저금리 장기화와 추가 경기부양 지지를 예상. 므누친은 CARES Act 중 5개 프로그램을 종료해 연준과 갈등을 빚었음. 전반적으로 옐런 체제가 주식시장과 부양책에 우호적일 것이라는 낙관적 시각.
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will likely be leaving the treasury department mnuchin has been a negotiator for stimulus and a proponent of stimulus checks and another round of stimulus checks directly to individuals saying hey it's a quick way to get money into the packets of americans that checks can be sent out within a week of congress saying send out checks however mnuchin just pulled out the rug from under the fed last week or so it seemed and now mnuchin's days might be numbered let's talk about what this means what a big shake-up at the treasury department means for the stock market and of course for stimulus we'll talk about who the replacement might be let's talk but first i want to quickly remind you that you know black friday is around the corner and that means the big big sale for black friday does come to an end so check out the amazing courses down below on real estate investing real estate sales money in the psychology of money that's the stock course that one's still in development but all the new lectures get added for free you get lifetime access when you're in and you get to meet me in the live streams the private live streams we do every day the market is open can't wait to see you there and you can always email me for a bundle code at kevin kevin.com all right so in this video we're gonna be talking about exactly what's going on and what's likely to happen going forward we are first likely to get a new treasury secretary in less than two months and her name is janet yellen in this video i'm going to explain briefly what she is all about and what the impact of her new position as the head of the treasury department will mean for stocks and stimulus so let's talk about what happened when janet yellen's appointment to the treasury department was first announced before the announcement markets were euphoric we've pretty much just seen non-stop euphoria throughout november here vaccine hopes relative peace after the election ev stocks skyrocketing recovery stocks like macy's and dave and buster skyrocketing simon property group skyrocketing everything's skyrocketing well then came janet yellen's appointment announcement at least and then the party froze for a whole 30 seconds as people essentially figuratively here obviously looked around gave a few nods and said janet yellen all right keep partying oh let's go that's right initial reactions to janet yellen and the treasury department have actually been extremely positive this is because markets were fearful that we might get someone like elizabeth warren who elizabeth warren is somebody who ushered in the dodd-frank banking restrictions and might end up having more of these restrictions that lead to tighter financial markets tighter lending and tighter banking with potentially more oversight and ultimately lower stock prices in financials but that didn't happen instead we got janet yellen so who is janet yellen and more importantly what does a janet yellen treasury department look like and mean for us well jenny ellen served for four years as chairwoman of reasury department are two totally separate entities in fact the federal reserve is not even part of the federal government it's an independent central bank for the united states now it exists because of congress but it's supposed to exist independent of our government anyway janet yellen served as federal reserve chairwoman from february 3rd 2014 to february 3rd 2018.
she came after ben bernanke who helped us get through the 2008 financial crisis with timothy geithner as the then treasury secretary and she was succeeded by jerome powell j pal the dude with the money printer and her time as a woman with the money printer actually might be a good time to look at to try to analyze okay how was she when she was the woman with the money printer and what does that tell us about how she might act today when it comes to stimulus and well markets well first there are two real trains of thought on the federal reserve and these are important to understand so we can understand where she falls so the two positions you can really take as a board member on the federal reserve is either being a hawk or being a dove being a hawk means you want higher interest rates and you want less federal reserve and central banking support for the economy hawks are usually worried about high inflation coming and they're worried about people's basically hard earned money getting robbed through high inflation or potentially hyper inflation and so hawks prefer to keep interest rates higher and debt low they don't like a lot of debt and they don't like low interest rates they don't like cheap money they want inflation to stay away longer and they think they can keep inflation away because inflation is the big evil of everything they think they can keep inflation away by keeping rates higher and money polisary policies tighter aka hey yo slow down on the money printer on the other hand you got doves doves are people who want low rates they want really accommodative policies they're like hey trump how can we fan you while you run the money printer low rates after all help encouraging borrowing will help encourage borrowing and spending but low rates for too long can usher in a lot of household risk and business risk too much borrowing because of low rates means all of a sudden households are more indebted businesses are more indebted and eventually if we do get inflation from well too much of the money printing well then you could end up having a bubble that pops once interest rates have to go up to combat high inflation leading to bankruptcies because people are overly indebted so you can kind of see there's there's this really interesting balance of okay well where do you fall after all low rates don't only encourage risky behavior but some say that low rates lead to the expectation for low inflation and when you cement the expectation of low inflation try to roll with this for a second okay so picture yourself like oh yeah yeah i think inflation is going to be low for the next 10 years okay roll with that for a second and then now picture you're in japan and what do you get well you get basically no growth for the last 30 years since the mid-90s so maybe 25 years and an economy that basically has had next to deflation in some years actually deflation no inflation and no growth for like 25 years and nobody in the united states wants that to happen we do not want what happened in japan to happen in the united states and so this is another reason hawks are like dude no no low rates uh-uh uh-uh get them up and stop running the freaking money printer as much like let's go settle down a little bit now other experts say look japan suffers from different things maybe they suffer from a lack of innovation or an aging population and a lack of population growth china might be next china's got a population growth problem too because they they didn't make enough babies in certain years because maybe there was a rule that they couldn't have as many babies but we could get into that continent in a different video for right now we got to focus on janet yellen so janet yellen now that we understand hawks and doves well janet yellen is somebody who kind of falls right in the middle she served to really actually balance the the dovish members and who wanted zero rates for long and the hawkish members who wanted high rates so she struck a balance between the board members and ended up raising rates from zero under bernanke to 1.25 to 1.5 percent she believed that fiscal stimulus at the time was not necessary and this was back in 2016.
aka government stimulus was not necessary to help the economy get to full employment but believe that instead we could have relatively accommodative policies but we could start tightening a little bit kind of taking that middle approach aka still relatively low rates but let's keep it let's keep things relatively loose until we reach what's known as full employment see full employment is when you don't just have like a low unemployment rate but you also have minorities and women employed at levels that are roughly equal to men's employment that's full employment anyway this helps us kind of see janet yellen as someone who's really moderate and really calming and this is going to have some unique impacts to stimulus and the markets see janet yellen is seen as somebody who is a modern keynesian this is really like a fancy textbook way of basically describing somebody as someone who believes that when the market is booming the government or the federal reserve should come in and lower the volume of the party should maybe dampen the expectations of the party a little bit and make things a little tighter maybe start paying off a little bit of debt putting some money aside for a rainy day so to speak when the punch bowl is out now this is the opposite of what keynesians will do if the markets and well overall the economy is suffering keynesians believe that when there ain't no party because everybody's bankrupt the keynesian economists and the government should be pumping money into the economy to prop the economy back up and make the party come back to life that's kind of a rough overly simplified example of keynesian economics people see janet yellen as a modern keynesian and so in bad times the government should spend and be very supportive of the economy so what does that mean for janet yellen and what is she going to do to us basically when it comes to the market and stimulus going forward well given that janet yellen used to be the chairwoman of the federal reserve i would first expect that janet yellen will be extremely accommodative to what the federal reserve is already doing now remember the federal reserve is not supposed to be a part of the government the treasury department is but they work together a lot and what do we know about the federal reserve now like pretty much everyone on the freaking federal reserve is like yo we need some more stimulus here okay literally we've got jerome powell basically begging congress to do more stimulus janet yellen having been on the federal reserve is likely to align with the federal reserve but i'm not just guessing this stay tuned from a direct or for a direct quote from her in just a moment first i want to mention though last week treasury secretary mnuchin a trump appointee and a wall street guy abruptly ended five of the cares act stimulus programs like the main street lending program the municipal credit facility corporate credit facilities and the term asset loan program for like securitizing car loans and credit card loans and more consumer debt kind of stuff anyway jerome powell complained about this saying dude you just came in and took my tool belt away this led to some frustrations between the fed and the treasury department with the janet yellen we're probably not going to see that kind of incongruence we're probably not going to see situations like that happen this is because yellen used to be on the fed and she was a pretty much a moderate within the fed and she pretty much probably agrees with jerome powell that you probably shouldn't have yanked the rug out from under the fed now the impacts of that for the impact of that just google on or type into youtube meet kevin ending treasury bailout and you'll see my full breakdown on that that's fully explained in a different video we won't go into that here instead what are we going to have if we've got yellen who probably aligns a lot more with the fed and what did she say about stimulus well we're probably going to have a lot more boringness and guess what boring is actually really good for markets this is so true that jeremy siegel came on to cnbc today which by the way this guy is like a finance whiz he's a finance professor at wharton he's brilliant when it comes to economics he went on cnbc and he cheered the yellen nomination saying that she's the reason christmas is coming early for the stock market and when it comes to stimulus she's the person to do it speaking of stimulus and stocks haven't done it yet seriously weeble's awesome deposit 100 bucks with weeble and they will give you four free stocks and you will not look back you're going to look at the hours that you can pre-market trade and aftermarket trade and it's amazing okay check out weeble okay okay but now all this aside what does this actually mean for us okay well let's position the treasury secretary a little bit here with a quick example mnuchin the current treasury secretary was the guy last time to send stimulus checks he's the guy who's got the power to send stimulus when congress says to do it and he also negotiates the terms of stimulus lending programs he's the guy who kind of made the main street lending program suck more on that more on the other video on that that i just referenced google treasury ending bailout yes that one anyway minutian's also been a big negotiator with nancy pelosi mitch mcconnell and mark meadows for stimulus packages to get stimulus done however recent stimulus talks have failed when it comes to yelling though we've got some insights see economists or the economist magazine recently quoted janet yellen saying that before back in like 2016 janet yellen said hey we don't need fiscal support we don't need stimulus but now it's not 2016.
today is 2020 and we're in the midst of a pandemic and we're potentially going into a double dip recession at least temporarily until everybody gets inoculated well janet yellen recently stated that congress must quote provide extraordinary fiscal support there's only so much the fed can do and in order to avert long-lasting damage to the economy we need to quote pass another economic recovery package now remember earlier how i said that janet yellen is likely to align with jerome bowell jerome powell at the fed says the same thing we need to do more at congress the fed has already done as much as it can a janet yellen appointment means that janet yellen now steps into the role of negotiating for stimulus potentially at the end of february assuming we have a biden presidency so if you don't think biden's going to be president then obviously you can ignore this but i honestly i would watch this video anyway just in case okay this video is about yelling though we're not going to get into politics here so continuing on yellen negotiating for stimulus when she's seen as a calming force and a moderate and she's coming in guns blazing for stimulus probably means good things for stimulus and good things for the market so what's our summary here well you already know to use the black friday coupon code that's linked down below for the amazing courses and getting four free stocks and life insurance but beyond all that we know that we have a very smart very powerful woman and she will also be the first woman treasury department head that we have ever had and that is special which is why i put emphasis on woman it's actually a first and it is great jenny yellen speaks to calm she isn't a big fan of clamping down excessively and hawkishly but she's also not a pushover instead she is a powerful force on what she believes is important and at this point the most important things that we've got or at least to look forward to are number one low interest rates which we'll likely see for the next four to five years especially with a janet yellen joineder so to speak with the federal reserve and number two large stimulus support which janet yellen is already in favor of so there you have it thanks so much for watching hope you appreciate it and
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