Jamie Dimon Warms of Economic Hurricane

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결론: JP모건 CEO 다이먼은 경제 허리케인 대비를 경고했지만 당일 미국 증시는 급등했고, 진행자는 단기 반등의 지속성에 회의적이나 방향은 단정하지 않음. 다이먼 발언: 인플레이션과 연준(Fed)의 긴축, 우크라이나 전쟁이 원자재(식량·연료) 가격을 끌어올려 배럴당 150~175달러까지 갈 수 있다고 경고. 양적긴축(QT)은 이달 시작해 월 950억 달러 규모로 확대 예정. JP모건은 대차대조표를 보수적으로 운용하겠다고 밝힘. 시장 반응: 발언에도 S&P500 +1.84%, 다우 +1.33%, 나스닥 +2.69%, 러셀2000 +2.31%로 상승. 5월 한 달 S&P500은 거의 보합. 일부에서는 이것이 베어마켓 랠리(함정)일 수 있다고 봄. 월가 견해: 일부는 강한 펀더멘털 종목을 싸게 살 기회로 봄. 하워드 막스는 추가 하락 시 더 매수한다는 입장이나 바닥을 단언하지는 않음. 개인 옵션 거래: JP모건 자료 기준 개인투자자 콜옵션 거래량이 2019년 12월 이후 최저 수준으로 하락. 2021년 1월 정점 대비 크게 줄어 투기적 열기 식음. 중국 빅테크: 핀둬둬(PDD)는 3월 저점 대비 약 106% 상승했고 알리바바는 약 27% 상승. 진행자는 긍정적 실적 이후 벽을 타고 오르는 흐름을 주목하나, 바닥인지 여부는 알 수 없다고 봄. 개별 종목: 스노우플레이크, 엔비디아, 넷플릭스, 메타, 아마존, 구글 등 대형주와 전기차(니오·루시드·리비안) 등 다수가 일일 강세. 리세일 의류 관련주(리얼리얼·스티치픽스·스레드업·포쉬마크)도 반등. 진행자 전망: 시장 방향 단정 없음. 애플은 소비 둔화 시 아이폰 판매 우려가 있어 주가 리스크가 있다고 언급. 투자 조언이 아니라고 명시. 리스크: 인플레이션, 연준 긴축, 원자재 급등, 경기침체 가능성.

다듬은 글

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01. hey jj here again with the art of values episode 77 so today i'm going to talk about jamie diamond says braces up for an economic hurricane wall street warns that there's a the rally might not last might be a bull trap and retail options trading's dropped way off recently emerging tech stocks rallied hard to gain today even though the bad news was around and one china tech company i've been talking about quite a lot recently has been climbing the wall of worry and it's up over a hundred percent since the march low okay if you're on twitter i'm going to put i'm putting this first clip on twitter just the first few seconds and so click the links in the tweet if you want to see the full episode and if you're anywhere else uh subscribe and like on youtube and this video also on spotify video and there's audio everywhere else and join me on twitter at the added value all right let's get into it so this is james this is what jamie dimon said that kind of rocked the the finance world there's you have to realize if you don't know jamie diamond is probably the most uh famous uh well-known bankers in the world i mean can you name another banker well you can probably can if you're into finance but he's definitely the most well-known head of jp morgan so let's see what he says it's a hurricane it's right now it's kind of sunny things are doing fine you know everyone thinks that the fed can handle this that hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way we just don't know if it's a minor one or superstorm sandy or uh yeah sandy or or uh andrew or something like that and it's you you better brace yourself okay that's okay go away right now things are doing fine it's enough jamie that's enough we get it we get the warning okay so yeah he was quite uh optimistic not too long ago and suddenly he's incredibly bearish uh about things it seems so uh what you know what to make what would the mark what do you think the market would make of this i mean he's got a lot of clout you'd think the market would be down better today but it was not and so uh let's see what else we've got yep so the headlines look at these headlines on reuters diamond says brace yourself for us economic hurricane due due to inflation and jamie dimon says brace yourself for an economic hurricane caused by the fed and ukraine war there are two main factors that diamond that diamond worried so-called quantitative tightening or qt is scheduled to begin this month and will ramp up to 95 billion a month in reduced bond holdings and the other large factor wearing diamond is the ukraine war and its impact on commodities including food and fuel oil could hit 150 or 175 dollars a barrel said you'd better brace yourself diamond told the room of analysts and investors that was his audience jp morgan is bracing ourselves and we're going to be very conservative with our balance sheet so you as i said you think the market will be down but look what happened today we had s p 500 uh one one point eight four percent up the dow one point three three the nasdaq two point six nine percent and the russell two point three one so the nasdaq and russell must have been the small cap index in which i've been kind of following more closely so i have small caps and i think that the first turn down the first turn up i'm not saying that's turned up uh permanently or i mean not family i'm not saying i'm not saying it's uh it's on a bull run yet it could be a bear market ready rally as i said so this is the headline don't get too excited about stock markets recent rally some wall street experts say it could be a trap and the beer market will still wreak havoc the stock market is suddenly up or is it equities whip soared through the month of may as investors contemplated falling economic projections and less than stellar earnings forecasts from retailers despite the bearish news ongoing volatility volatility and consistent predictions over an impending recession the s p 500 ended the month roughly unchanged after mounting a recovery in the last few weeks the rebound has some wall street on wall street arguing that it's time to be optimistic opportunistic or optimistic opportunistic and by beating down names that still possess strong fundamentals but not every investment bank is telling its clients to go and buy stocks so as i i mean yesterday i was uh talking about howard mark saying that they're buying and that uh you know it's it's more there's some bargain stocks in quite a few areas but he didn't go as far as say that it's the it's the bottom or anything he said in six months of it it's down more we'll buy more that's kind of like i mean some people say calling uh say catching a falling knife but you know if it's cheap it's cheap and it gets cheaper it gets cheaper so it's buying and buying another sign that i talked about that i said was to call this tweet here if you're on video on youtube or squad my video be able to see the graph call options trading among retail investors has fallen to the lowest level since december 2019 completely reversing the surge in activity since the pandemic began that's from jp morgan again the graph is pretty shows that significantly the the pretty much the peak was january 2021 not surprising that was that was the peak of the emerging tech boom all those kind of so the arc portfolio of stocks typifies it so it's gone down since then people novices were getting into options i noticed this quite a lot people were couldn't you couldn't lose it was a way of making even more money and now it's reversed so yeah let's get to the market some of these some individual stocks and what i wanted to talk about was chinese china text doctor chopping kind of observing i i have two of them baba and pdd pendulgo so they were up two as well as the us dd was up point nine five five g was up three point four six barber four point one jd three point nine six pd seven point four nine percent and uh ten cent up three point one three this is on the u.s market by the way not hong kong so what i said about this i posted on an investment group online something going on a bit under the radar large chinese eco commerce company pin dogo continues to climb the wall of worry after earnings after decent earnings on 27th of may now 106 above the mid-march low can a bear market rally in stock in a stock bounce this much yes probably but it's a lot which yeah so the the march low was really took another after being down a lot took a big dive and but and it's kind of been sort of uh since mid-march so you know over two months it's uh climbed 106 which is pretty significant it was really low but uh you know the us u.s stocks haven't climbed that much and the the china market was down before the us is it has it was that is that march mid-march and it's not just in this stock it's in other stocks too but where most a lot of them were that mid-march was the low was the low point i mean it's hard to see it could go lower than that because it was just incredibly low when it was so much pessimism so much doubt uncertainty but is that the bottom we just don't know you can't predict just like we can't predict the stock market being having bad news one of the somebody with huge clout saying brace for a hurricane but the stock market jumped we it's just unpredictable in the short term isn't it and so uh yeah 106 percent up for it and alibaba's up 27 which is not much it's similar to some u.s check stocks actually kind of have bounced off the bottom that much i don't say the bottom but it is at the bottom we don't know yet jamie dimon probably doesn't think so so yeah some of these individual stocks just going through we've got a snow snowflake up nearly 10 nvidia are 6.94 so these are these are big jumps uh new bank 16 what else is notable there uh snap 6.96 after that big spot spotify which i have nine uh 5.91 square which i have six point seven five uh pinterest up six similar six percent paypal seven percent coin base up seven point five six so there's a big moves in one day considering the bad the news round shopify up 10.33 of them in that win that's uh that's that went down pretty low to whether the ceo toby was was complaining that the stock market was under pricing it but and uh you know kathy woods being saying her stocks are deep value but as uh you know it's interesting isn't it that people that like ceos and fund managers complain about market inefficiency when it's not going when it's not going their way when it's going their way when there was like that back in that bubble they they weren't complaining about market inefficiency back then anyway our subs up 7.36 the arc funds actually arc f up seven and um you know lithium stocks up as well i see lit though just the etf it's 4.3 and what else you know the ev stocks the ones that probably shouldn't be up neo lucid and revving it up revving up six percent i mean is it it's around 30 31 32 should it be worth that i don't know uh land which is more like a probably a you know it's a land a farmland etf which is pretty pretty much the main the biggest one i think at 1.52 so not so much it was still up but it's kind of more defensive you know when people were talking when inflation warning it sort of been going up i should check the graph for that i had a look at it i mean farmland uh you know anecdotally remember i think bill gates is one of the biggest landowners farmland in the in the us isn't he is that correct i don't know tell me if not so interestingly that some of these uh reseller stocks like the real real up thirteen point five one stitch fix up eight earnings coming out soon they haven't had earnings and some of the statistics has been beaten way down and unfortunately i own that but i i was buying on the way down so it's not too bad but still bad and thread up which is similar uh you know marketplace for uh secondhand clothes kind of in bulk i think that one so there was a 12 poshmark another one up nine marketplace for reselling clothes and nc similar you know you could say it's in the similar category but in the s p 500 much bigger up to 7.85 and 5 again are luxury goods 12.38 resale and if we look at the big dogs in the index the index you know it wasn't up as much like i just looked through a whole bunch of stocks are up nearly 10 7 6 7 nine ten percent right or even more but the big stocks the big caps tests are up four point six eight that was quite a big move though uh it's up quite a lot in recent days netflix six point three one i mean there's a facebook 5.4 in amazon three the biggest of the big three three percent google up three microsoft only up 7.9 and apple at 1.68 i think there might be worries with apple in particular like the the p price the p e ratio is not it's not low and you know if there's if if da if jamie diamond's right uh and there's that economic hurricane coming uh people are going to be buying so many iphones are they suddenly you know they uh apple's not just selling to a well wealthy it's not a luxury item it's not a wealth wealthy people they're they're selling kind of well they're nothing not cheap are they even at the the lower level but people are going to be buying i mean i'm wearing earbuds right now are people going to hold off on that purchase even if they did a little bit if sales say if apple sales didn't grow at all uh i think there'd be trouble for the stock but that's just me and this is not financial advice in any way just talking here thinking through my own ideas all right that's all that's all i've got for you today and as i said i'm just thinking through my ideas and that's what i've been thinking today about the market anyway not not specific specific company analysis i'll do be doing that too today but i'm not gonna i won't you know this is just about the market and a few thoughts i had in the morning morning my time which i'm in new zealand not not the us okay so if you found any of this valuable like and subscribe uh videos i think videos the best way through youtube or spotify video now i think it's one of our videos pretty good format actually and uh audio of course audio versions elsewhere apple's still still big more than spotify actually and it's audio still and catch me on twitter at the art of value okay see you next time