저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼 발언을 인용해 경기침체 가능성을 언급하며, 연준 금리인하에 대해 조심스럽게 긍정 평가. 연착륙 확률은 35~40%로 제시됐다는 내용. 지정학 리스크와 경제성장이 자본 유입의 핵심이며 인도 성장 잠재력을 강조. 결론은 장기 투자로, 단기 폭락은 중립적으로 보라는 취지. 자산별 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello friends, welcome to the Stock Market Kannada channel. Welcome friends, in this video, I will try to cover important topics related to our market and the global market, and then to the market performance of the coming days. So, watch the video till the end and understand the whole thing. Maybe you will know some new ideas about the market.
Before continuing, you can also follow our other channel SMK. If you are interested, you can follow this channel. If you are interested, you can follow it. Then, if we pay attention to the topic of this video, today there is an important update. That update is by Jamie Dimon. Of course, many of you may not know who he is, but this person is a very important person.
In case you are interested, invest in banking stocks. If you do, definitely follow him and he will give you a lot of inputs. The inputs he gives about the banking sector are very beneficial. You can invest in any bank, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Ugly S Bank, Ugly Federal Bank, Ugly, you can invest in any bank.
If you follow this person, you will definitely get a lot of inputs about the banking sector. You will get good inputs to take decisions about the sector. You can see who he is here. CEO of JP Morgan, CEO of Chase Morgan, etc. Many news reports have been published in the past. So, in case Trump wins the next presidential election in America, maybe this person can also become the Fed Chairman.
All this is just speculation. There is speculation that it may happen and then it may happen in the presidential election. I have heard such things like this that if I win this presidential election, it will happen in the next five years. So he said many points in his interview. He especially talked about the recession.
He talked about the growth of our India. So let's try to understand some things about that in this video. So in case you have invested in any banking sector stocks, watch his interviews. You will definitely get a lot of inputs related to the banking sector. He talked about the recession. The Fed itself cut the rate yesterday.
You know, many people are asking questions like, "Is there a crash like 2008 coming?" In the comment section, who can say for sure that a crash will come or not? It may come, it may not come. Because if anyone predicts that the market will perform like this, they must be a god, not a loser. I have said this many times before, so the market can never be predicted.
What we should do is invest for the long term, we will get good returns. I have already repeated this many times before. I have also covered recession in a separate video. Let me tell you briefly about what a recession is. You can see it here. A significant wide spread and prolonged down turn in economic activity.
So, a down performance in economic activity means that economic activity goes down, that is, GDP goes down, because economic activity goes down. Manufacturing services are also there, there is a downfall there, obviously there is no growth, there is no GDP growth in the economy, so technically speaking, if there is continuous two quarters of negative growth, it is called a recession, that is, negative growth in GDP.
For example, we are now seeing 7% growth in our GDP. If we look at the US GDP, we are seeing growth up to 3%, now +3% or +7%. If we talk about our India, the same GDP growth becomes negative, for example, it becomes -1%, it becomes -3%, like this, minus is seen there, if there is continuous two quarters of something minus, then it is technically called a recession period.
So obviously There is no doubt that markets will crash during such times because when the market is performing well and there is no growth, obviously businesses will slow down. Companies' profits will decrease. People will not have money in their hands, so they will not be able to spend. In addition, the job market will also be underperforming or unemployment will also be high during such times.
This is technically called a recessionary period. They have also spoken about this. So, if we look at it once, I would like to mention one important point first. They are not saying that a recession will come because they also know that no matter how big a person they are, we cannot predict the market 100%, so they have mentioned some points.
He says probability, so here we see what he said about the recession, especially the recent rate cut, he mentioned a positive opinion about it, so here we can see how he elaborated on the recession, especially the daily economic activities that drive growth, which is obviously true, but for example, JP Morgan moves 10 trillion dollars a day, investors are making decisions every single day, people are going to work, sending kids to schools and buying food, that's what drives the economy.
So, to run the economy, we have to be selling and buying, we have to have money in our hands, if all the activities are going on normally, then that shows that the economy is growing. That's what he said. This illustrates the view that everyday economic actions are crucial to understanding larger economic trends.
So if there are good activities happening here every day, then obviously identifying larger economic trends becomes easy. That's important. He mentioned what can push the market back. You can see geopolitical factors as key influencers. What are we looking at now? Middle East tension, Russia, Ukraine war.
What are these geopolitical factors? These are crucial to market performance. He said that especially these geopolitical tensions can be seen. Geopolitics is far more important for mankind than interest rates in Japan. And the United States, he said that geopolitics is more important for interest rates because their market can be carried even if it has to be lifted.
So in that regard, he said that geopolitics is a much more important factor than Japan and the United States' interest rates. So I said that there is a mention here about the Ukraine and Russia conflict and the Middle East conflict. You can see that if you want, he acknowledged the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts.
So he also talked about the interest rate cut. You can see that it looks that way, but I am a little cautious in that. I am still a little cautious in that. I am cautious in that. You can see that Dimon said that. He also said that the Fed made the right decision to reduce rates, citing a stable underlying economy as a reason for cautious optimism.
So you can see that here. He also said things about capital flows and economic normalization. You can see that he stressed that capital flows will depend more on economic growth than solely on interest rates. What is investment? It comes from economic growth rather than interest rates. If you compare it to interest rates, you have to give more importance to economic growth.
If you say that inflows come through that, you can see the real thing. Go drive flows will be growth in the economy and not just the interest rate. So it can be said that this is a very important statement. So when there is good growth in the economy, then obviously inflows come. The best example of that is our Indian market interest rate is at an all-time high.
It is the same everywhere. They took our Indian scenario, they took the US scenario, they took whatever they took, still inflows are coming well to our market. Because we have good growth, they have clearly mentioned it in one sentence. You can see that about India, India's ambitious growth potential is shifting focus to India.
The country's advancements are demonetized. They have said well done to India. Attributing its success to effective reforms and infrastructure improvements, he appreciated the changes that were being made, so you can see I think you guys here have done a fabulous job at that, your Aadhaar system, the banking accounts reforming, GST building, national infrastructure reducing regulations, so you can see he appreciated all these, so you can see Dimon expressed confidence in India's ambition to become a seven trillion dollar economy, saying these things will help the country and help lower income people in addition to the wealth, so some people mentioned a point.
When people say that our economy has grown so much, why are the poor poorer? Of course, there are changes there. The wealthy people are not as rich. Many poor people have also come up. But we don't see it directly. It's because we concentrate more on the big ones and not on the small ones. So, people with lower incomes also benefit from it.
Jamie Dimon said that you can see it here. He also talked about the current political landscape, that is, about our political landscape in India. You can see it in Discussing the Current Political Climate in India. Dimon acknowledged that the government's reduced majority but maintained that it should not significantly affect the economy.
Prospects are lower but it doesn't have a significant impact on economic prospects. If I say not really, then I say no. It does n't have a direct impact. The government says democracy is that way right. So any democracy you operate in you have to understand it. Move around a little bit in the noted.
He mentioned so many important points. I said about the recession. So they can see the words in regards to the US economy. Dimon retreated his previous warnings about the possibility of a recession. That is, he has given a warning about the recession in the past, he has retreated it again, and he has repeated it.
State " I do not take the chances of a recession in the US off the table. I certainly do not ignore the possibility of a recession in the US. There are still such chances," he said. He believes the votes of a soft landing are around 35 to 40%, but added that a soft landing means an economic stability without economic problems or recessionary fears.
If you say that there is only 35 to 40%, there is a lot of uncertainty out there. So there is a lot of uncertainty for a soft landing. It is impossible to say right now how much impact all of that will have," he said. He pointed to various factors including geopolitical events and economic policies that It has been said that geopolitics and economic policies are important factors that contribute to the market's ups and downs.
Many people say that the recession that occurred in 2008 is still happening. If you look at the coincidence, you can see that the rate cut was done on the 18th. The rate cut was done on September 18, 2007. That can be called a coincidence. After the same 18th, there was a recession. After that, the market also performed well.
After the good performance, there was a recession in 2008. So, various factors were responsible for that. The current situation did not exist then. It was different. The situation was there, now it is a different situation, but the factors are the same, so that fear is still there, he said. He also dismissed the chances that a recession will not come.
He said that it may come, there are still chances that it will come. So what should we do at such a time? We definitely need to concentrate on two major issues, one is unemployment, especially in America, and the second is GDP. If there is continuous growth in GDP, the fear of recession will be reduced.
Similarly, if there are improvements in the job market, the unemployment rate will be low, but that will also remove the recessionary fear. So we need to concentrate on these data that will come. In case a recession comes in the coming days, there is definitely no need to get scared and get out of the market because you can see the performance of the market.
If you look at the maximum performance, you can see how the market has performed in the long term. In between, you have seen recessions, wars, and everything else. But where is the still market? It is at an all- time high. So, any recession, war, or pandemic like Covid can come. The market will come back, but it will take some time.
In the short term, all these things will have an impact. But in the long term, growth is the only thing that matters. So do you believe in India's growth? Just invest and invest for the long term. All these issues will also impact the short term. Of course, they can impact for six months, a year, or even two years.
But when you hold for five years, six years, seven years, or 10 years, all these things will become neutral. So the best example for that is Nifty. 50 chart So what you need to do is select companies that are fundamentally strong and invest for the long term. In case the market crashes, which stock do you fear to select?
Just invest in Nifty 50 index fund. At a time when the market crashes, you are afraid to buy any stock because Nifty 50 is an index of 50 stocks. So obviously, it will come back. The company will get a return. But we have to be patient to wait a little. So in that regard, make an effort. Many people have already said a lot of things.
The market may crash. It may happen. It may happen. It may happen. It may happen. But listen to everyone. Okay, crash or recession. I am a long-term investor. So it doesn't matter to me. Just continue. That's it. If you want to know some things about Jamie Dimon, he gives a lot of inputs about the banking sector.
Okay friends, I hope you liked this video. See you in the next video. Until then, Jai Hind, Jai Karnataka.
Comments 0