저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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JP모건 CEO 짐 다이먼의 5대 경고 정리. 지정학·인플레이션 리스크 과소평가, 재정적자와 인플레이션 결합 위험, 미국 신용등급 악화(무디스 강등)와 채무상환 우려, 관세로 인한 최대 10% 조정 가능성과 신용경색, 연준 등 중앙은행의 과신 비판, 미국의 글로벌 경제 지위 위협. 다만 영상은 하락 시 장기투자 기회를 강조하며, 자산별 구체적 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone, welcome to the Stock Market Kannada channel. Here in the video, an important person related to the market has talked about the current market conditions and highlighted some important points and also given some warnings. Who has given what warning to the investors? How important is this?
Let's try to understand everything. So, let's first find out who that person is. Then let's come to the topic of what he said. You can see that person. Jamie Dimon. You can see who he is here. The CEO of JP Morgan Chase. JP Morgan Chase is an American bank. The CEO of that bank is Jamie Dimon. He has been the CEO of this bank since 2006.
From 2006 till now, he has completed almost 19 years, maybe 20 years. This person is very like this person. Why is he an important person? In case you are investing in the banking sector, then you must know about this person. Because he gives a lot of inputs about the banking sector and we have just seen a person who has a lot of experience in the banking sector.
He has been the CEO of a bank since 2006 and has earned a lot from his experience. You can also see his net worth, 260 crore US dollars, not Indian rupees. Today, he spoke on one side and highlighted some points and also mentioned where investors should be cautious. Let's go through that issue one by one.
I will try to explain this through this article of the Economic Times: Jamie Dimon's Five Big Warnings About Global Markets at JP Morgan 2025 Speaking at JPMorgan's Investor Day, he gave five big warnings. The first warning or the first point he talked about was geopolitical and inflation risk. Dimon said that geopolitical risk remains very high and that markets may be underestimating the possibility of both elevated inflation and stock inflation.
Geopolitical conditions. You all know that Russia has been at war with Ukraine for years. The conflict between India and Pakistan has also made a lot of noise recently. You know how the conflict with the Americans is in Israel. The outsiders are often attacking in the Red Sea. What is this geopolitical conflict?
Of course, this is not good for the market. Also, recently, they have been saying that inflation is like stock inflation. Don't think that inflation is a new word. This is not new, but it is new to those who are hearing it for the first time. An economic cycle characterized by slow growth, high unemployment rate and high inflation.
Growth is slow. Unemployment rate is high. Inflation is also high. This is called stock inflation. When actual inflation becomes high, it is called effective inflation. When people have more money in their hands, people should have more money in their hands, so there should be work. But when the unemployment rate is high, there is high inflation, that is stock inflation.
If they are warning about this, I think the chance of inflation going up and stock inflation is a bit higher than other people think. What are people thinking? The JPMorgan chief is warning that the combination of inflation and large fiscal deficits could constrain policy responses going forward, saying there is a slightly higher chance of inflation and stock inflation.
What is the combination of these two? Fiscal deficit, large fiscal deficit means that the government spends more than its income. What is the difference between it and inflation? It is bigger and inflation is higher. They say that these two combinations are a deadly combination. In one word, if you say it there, the fiscal deficit should not be wider.
You get 100 rupees, so you spend 105 rupees, so it is okay. It is manageable. If you leave that and spend 150 rupees, then it becomes a deadly combination. Because if you get 100 rupees, you spend 150 rupees, then you will not be able to survive for a long time. In addition, inflation is also high, so it becomes a big negative.
This is why we say that the Finance Minister talks about fiscal deficit every time we present a budget. They say that the market will react immediately as soon as that statement comes. Our government is also managing the physical deficit very well. They are also setting good targets. In the coming days, we will reduce the physical deficit.
That is why our market is in a good position. If we look at the global markets, the growth momentum will continue. That is why they are talking about the American perspective. Even though they talked about the American perspective, our Indian market is also open to globalization. So the impact that is happening in America will definitely happen on our Indian markets.
The market can bounce back quickly. But the escalating impact will be there immediately. So every investor should know these things. Large scale deficits are always a deadly combination, it should not happen. At the moment, it is available in the American market. But while inflation has been controlled in recent days, there is also a wider fiscal deficit.
That is known to everyone. Now, coming to the second point, credit is a bad risk. Alarms are rising about the deterioration of US credit quality. Today's credit is a bad risk. Yesterday, there was news related to credit ratings. Moody's downgraded the credit rating of the US. The reason for this is that the debt servicing is not proper.
They are saying the same thing. You can see that many investors and institutions are overlooking how damaging a downturn can be, especially those who have experienced it first hand. Especially those who have experienced such situations in the past. Look, they are very much overlooking this, they are saying that they are not giving a damn about it.
Credit is definitely good if managed properly, but if it is not managed properly, it can also be deadly for the economy as well as for individuals, as you all know. Coming to the third point, we have already got some clarity regarding the tariffs that may trigger a 10% market correction tariff. But they are still giving a warning about this .
They are saying that the tariffs could possibly cause a correction of up to 10% in the market . So, there has been some positive news regarding tariffs in the interim . But in the long term, there is still positive news to come. Because the tariffs on China have been passed for 90 days. Donald Trump has also passed tariffs on other countries for 90 days.
Meanwhile, trade deals and tariffs have not been making much news. In the coming days, if trade deals fail, there is a chance that it will have an adverse impact on the market. You can see that DeMon emphasized that markets have not fully priced in the economic damage from US President Trump's tariffs.
If the market has not yet adapted to his policies, he is saying that in case there is no positive outcome here, the stock markets could sell off by around 10% as companies begin to slash earnings forecasts. In case the tariffs are not properly negotiated, companies will have no choice but to lower their earnings forecasts in the coming days.
Then there will be a correction in companies and there are chances that it will take the overall market down as well. He described US asset prices as kind of high. Asset prices are high there and there is a chance of a potential credit crunch as cheap. Financing dries up, a credit crunch may be created, and there will be less money available at lower interest rates.
Because interest rates are still at the same level, and the proper outcome has not been achieved, it could even depress the market by up to 10%, according to Jamie Dimon. You can see the next point later, Central Banks Overconfidence, especially in relation to the Fed. He has expressed doubt about whether central banks can prevent a recession.
In particular, this question can be seen as simply adjusting short-term interest rates. Would it be enough to counter the impact of tariffs and global trade frictions? We are talking about short-term interest rates. They are questioning whether it is possible to adjust or adjust the tariff impact or fix the global trade war.
So, they are also giving warnings to central banks, saying that central banks should think beyond that and not be overconfident. Of course, this is the Fed they are targeting as a major issue, because the government and the Fed's policies are not in sync. That is also creating some problems . They are using a white and watch policy.
They are expressing pressure to cut rates, which means that the central banks are overconfident in the government's stance . Now, if we come to the next point, the last point, America's global economic standing is at risk. They say that America is the big brother, and that it has to do with global economic standing .
If America continues to think like this, its global economic position will be at risk. In short, Dimon offered a broader warning about the United States' role in the global economy. This is not just about numbers. This is about America's position in the world economy and that position is not guaranteed.
If we look at why they are giving such a warning or saying that if this continues, that position is not guaranteed. This is because other countries are already signing deals to bypass the US. They are also warning that the deals they are making will create long-term challenges for US leadership and competitiveness, while avoiding potential problems with the US .
Especially, he was talking from the US point of view, but even though he was talking from the US point of view, it will impact the global markets. You already know why. I explained it in yesterday's video. The first reason is that the US is the biggest economy in the world. The second reason is that we use the dollar for the majority of global trade.
Not only us, but the world uses the dollar. So the changes that happen there will impact the world markets. But then the bounce back will come quickly wherever there is strong performance, wherever the economy is strong. It could be our market or another market. But once the American market declines, then obviously its impact will also fall on the global markets.
Then the global markets will also fall. Our market will also fall. But our economy was strong, our policies were supporting our economy, so it bounced back immediately. There are chances of bouncing back faster than the market there. But even if the market falls, the market is still there. There are always opportunities.
There are always opportunities when there is a recession. There are always opportunities. There are always opportunities when there is a war. There are always opportunities. There are always opportunities. We, as investors, should look for them. If the market falls by 10% or 15%, that is a big opportunity because we get the opportunity to double our wealth.
In such a situation, even if we wait for five years or 10 years, we will not get such a big return. But we will get it in a few months or a few years. So in case of a negative impact, Market Bidru also brings big advantages to long-term investors, but the market needs to be sustained, and the patience and courage that it needs to have are not known.
Investors do not know to what extent US policymakers pay attention to these things. But a very important person has come to the banking sector. There has also been some news that perhaps after Trump wins, Jeremy Powell may come to replace Jamie Dimon after his term ends. I do not know if he will come in the near future.
But he has given some important inputs. Investors should always be careful about these issues. When investing in the market, you should always be cautious. Whatever happens in our country, not only in countries that are stronger in economy than us, it also impacts us. Some people ask, if there is a problem somewhere, why is our market?
We need to leave because we have opened up to globalization. We invest elsewhere. Others come and invest here and trade with the world. Our companies do business there, their companies do business here. We are all interlinked with each other. So wherever there is a problem, its impact is everywhere.
Especially where there is a business link, the impact is greater. Sometimes there is no link at all. There is a cascading impact. All the stocks also fall. That is normal. Then the market bounces back when it finds out. Okay, friends. I hope you liked this video. I don't know how many people understood the topic.
I tried to convey it as much as possible. I hope you liked this video. I hope you like it. See you in the next video.
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