Recession Fear on Market | Jim Rogers on US Recession and Indian Markets | Stock Market Kannada

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미국 경기침체(생애 최악 가능성)를 이유로 미국 주식 매도 입장. 관세·정책 혼란으로 단기 충격 예상, 달러 강세 전망. 은을 금보다 선호하며 원자재 긍정적. 중국 시장 매력적, 인도는 현재 수준에서는 투자 원치 않음(조정 후 재검토 시사). 침체 시 장기 성장주·인덱스펀드 관점 유지 조언. 자막상 '시장 조정 후에도 여전히 고평가 우려' 언급은 발언 내용상 불명확.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Hello friends, welcome to the Stock Market Kannada channel. Welcome friends, in this video, a big investor has said some important points about the current market conditions and the possible market conditions in the future. Let's find out about it, whether it is positive or negative. Let's also try to find out some ideas about what we can do about it.

02. If we look at who that big investor is, this person is definitely a person who is not familiar to many people. Jim Rogers is an American investor. He is an American investor. He is 82 years of age. You can see here. James Bill and Rogers Jr. is an American investor and financial commentator based in Singapore.

03. He is also a financial commentator, that is, he comments on financial situations and market conditions. He is currently seen as a person living in Singapore. He is the Chairman of Biland Interest Inc. He is the Chairman of Biland Interest Inc. He was the co- founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management.

04. He was also the creator of the Roses International Commodities Index. He is an investor who has a lot of interest in commodities. He has said some important points about the market conditions, especially the situation in the US and the future possibilities. He has also talked about our market and the Chinese market.

05. Let's learn all about it. This is a single page. All the information is there. Let's take a look at it. What does Jim Roses say? Global investor, author and commodity guru Roses is Out of US Stocks as He Believes the Worst US Recession in His Lifetime is Imminent The so-called commodity guru has come out of US stocks for the time being.

06. Why is he out of US stocks? He believes the worst US recession in his lifetime is imminent. The worst recession of his lifetime is imminent. He is saying that the biggest recession in his lifetime could come. Of course, how much of this is true or how much is false is a different matter, but the current conditions do not 100% confirm his words because Trump's policies are showing the same.

07. I have said many times before that Make America Great Again is not something that can happen immediately, it is something that can happen in the long term. If their decisions are taken gradually, it will benefit America and global markets as well. But they are going aggressively, so they may get into problems.

08. Many economists are also giving expectations that they may get into problems. They are not the only ones who are joining the same list. You can see why they are selling US stocks. They have given the reason why they are selling. America is going to have problems because nothing bad has happened in 2008.

09. After 2008, nothing bad has happened in America, so maybe they can face the problems now. You can see about the recession. They are saying that it is imminent. He also said that he is ready. He said that he needs to walk the talk and make America great again. He said that he needs to stand by what he says in his speech about US President Donald Trump.

10. Then he said about the tariff war that it will cause economic problems. Of course, everyone knows this. Even Donald Trump knows that this will create economic problems in the short term. But in the long run, it can bring advantages. But in the short term, it will also do so. And it is not possible to make an immediate shift.

11. We have recently seen a best example in Sri Lanka. Before the food crisis in Sri Lanka, the government there took a decision and did not do chemical farming for any reason. It was 100% natural farming. If they had taken a gradual decision to do organic farming, there would not have been a food crisis there.

12. What happens in that case is that they have already enslaved the land there, it needs to be ready, it takes three to four years, there are a lot of procedures for that. If they say that they have to prepare properly for organic farming or natural farming, then nothing can be grown. That is the reason for the food crisis there.

13. The economic crisis here is also coming in the same way. Now they are imposing tariffs. If you impose tariffs, we will impose them. That will cause an economic crisis. So, you can see the same points that they are also mentioning about the dollar. Money will keep moving to it, that is, the dollar will get stronger.

14. Because if problems start, the dollar will get stronger, especially the dollar. Investment is increasing accordingly, so there is no doubt that money will flow into the dollar. Then, if we look at the solutions to tackle recession, solutions to prevent recession, spending cuts and reduction in debt and taxes, government spending should be cut, and debt should be reduced.

15. That is, America's debt is going to an unmanageable level, which is also creating problems there. Because the debt-to-GDP ratio is crossing it and going forward, that is why problems are starting. So, they say that reduction in debt and taxes should also be reduced. Especially in these matters, we can say that Donald Trump is going on the right path, because he is cutting spending, especially the Federal Reserve employees.

16. It could be done by reducing or by stopping funding to Ukraine. They are cutting different funding sources. So the spending cut is already in effect. They are also talking about reducing the debt. They are also saying that they will reduce taxes. Even during the election time, they have already said this.

17. They have already mentioned it. So here we can say that they are going on the right path. But they will make it 100% possible. That will be important. Let's see. We will know in the coming days what they are talking about. If they talk about the Federal Reserve, we will see that the US Federal Reserve knows nothing other than cutting interest rates.

18. They have said that they know nothing else except cutting interest rates. They have spoken a little harshly about the Federal Reserve. Now on gold and silver, I will invest in silver before gold. Look at both. Good, especially those who concentrate on commodities as a major. I prefer silver to gold, but still both look good and can perform well.

19. Especially in the recent times, commodities are also seeing good performance. As you can see, China is the most attractive among all emerging markets. If you compare it to emerging markets, they say that China is the major market that looks attractive. There are many reasons for that. Let's look at them too.

20. We can see that on Indian markets. I want to invest in India but not at current levels. I want to invest in Indian markets, but I don't want to invest in this level. Especially since the market has already seen a good correction. I got it, they are still treating our Indian market as overvalued, so why are they treating China positively?

21. In case we look at the performance of the Chinese market, in case we look at the five-year performance, we can see how it was down from the high, especially from the high of 2021, it was down 26-27% till September 2024, then China announced the stimulus package, there was a huge rally for a few days and then it consolidated.

22. In case we look at the six-month performance, we can see that suddenly the rally came up 27-28% and then it consolidated at the same level. Why is there good valuation there too? If we look at the Chinese market, so they They have given this kind of commentary about the market, but if you look at the long-term performance, you can see that this is how the performance is.

23. This kind of up performance has been seen before, then it went down, then there was a bounce back, then it went down again, and recently there has been a bounce back here. In recent times, it can be said that investors have been holding onto that kind of expectation that a similar bounce back could come .

24. Especially recently, economic stimulus has been making a lot of noise in China, and it is also taking the market to a slightly higher level. If we look at our market, there has been a good correction in the last six months. It is down around 9% or 10%, but if we calculate from above, it is still down 12.5%.

25. But still, if we look at the one-year performance, it is still 5% positive . Now, if you look at the five-year performance of In Case, you can see that the performance is very good. Compared to the Chinese market, our market has performed very consistently. They are talking about recession. I have covered recession in a detailed video before.

26. What is recession? What developments happen when there is a recession? Which are the positives and which are the negatives? Actually, there are no positives in this. Everything is negative. When there is a recession, the first thing that happens is that companies reduce spending. It can be companies or the government.

27. Due to the decrease in spending, economic activities decrease. If economic activities decrease, there is no growth. If there is no growth in the economy, then it becomes a big negative point for the market. The business of companies also goes down. The profits of companies also go down. So in such a situation, the market immediately reacts negatively.

28. So in such a situation, you get to see a market correction. In addition, especially in a recession, there are two In case a country experiences a decline in growth in a quarter, that is, it experiences negative GDP growth, it is officially announced as a recessionary period, and the country officially enters a recession.

29. In case there is negative growth in one quarter and then positive growth in the next quarter, it is not called a recession. Currently, we are seeing more than 2% growth in America. Compared to our market, we are seeing more than 6% growth. If we compare our market to America, our market there is experiencing very good growth .

30. But America is the strongest economy. Even if there is 2%, 2.2% growth, there is still a possibility of generating good returns . So, they are expecting a major recession, but let's see. Many economists are already saying this. They are not the only ones who are saying it. Trump's policies are also supporting their words.

31. So, all possibilities are there. Nothing can be ruled out. So, what we investors need to do is to move cautiously. First, we should look at long-term growth opportunities and invest. We should not worry about short-term volatility. In the long term, whether there is a recession or not, we should look at which companies have good growth, where there is a strong performance, where there are less chances of making a difference.

32. If we invest in the latter, then perhaps it will bring us more chances of making a profit. In addition, in case a recession comes and the markets crash, then of course it is a big opportunity. Even a market crash gives a good opportunity to those who take advantage of it. You can see how the market crashed in 2007.

33. The market crashed by more than 50% or 60%, and then bounced back. You can see how it performed so far. The market has already seen hundreds of recessions. But still stands and stalls. If you look at companies where the fundamentals are good and where there is growth opportunity, you will definitely get profit if you invest in such companies.

34. If you are afraid of investing in individual stocks, you go for index funds. Nifty 50 index funds come, Sensex funds come, and then Nifty Next 50 funds come. There are many more. You can study this stage or if you are looking for a larger opportunity, Nifty There is a 500 index on which funds can be studied and that kind of investment can also be made.

35. That will also bring us profit in the long term. But in the short term, there are definitely more chances of impact. We have to tolerate that short term volatility. Only then will we get good returns. So let's see to what extent Jim Rogers' words will be true. Let's hope that it doesn't happen in the coming days because if a recession comes, the market goes into a downtrend again or goes into a downtrend from the current level, it will definitely bring disappointment.

36. But we can't stop it. But what we can do is make a decision to invest carefully. So let's do that. Keep trying in that direction. . Until then, Jai Hind, Jai Karnataka.