저자: Le · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 차트 분석. RSI 34 과매수 후 조정 경험을 근거로 기술적 지표 중시. 200~202달러 지지선 위를 유지하는 한 강세 파동 시나리오가 더 유력하다고 봄. 단기 조정 가능성 언급(250달러 저항). 이 지지선을 하향 이탈하면 약세 시나리오로 전환하며, 그 경우 내년께 더 큰 하락 가능성 제시. 강세 시나리오에서 340~360달러대까지 상승 가능, 정점은 내년께 형성될 수 있다는 장기 관점 포함.
다듬은 글
hi this is Le you hope you're well in this video I'm going to cover the chart of Tesla stock briefly as possible in fact some of you been asking me for an update on this chart so let's dig into the chart of Tesla and explain what is likely going on here and also I'm going to take a look at two potential wave counts in Tesla one bullish wave count and one bearish wave count on Tesla and explain which one I think is much more likely all right guys should be quite interesting join me all right guys welcome back so it's been interesting last few weeks on Tesla as we can see here uh the last time I actually made an update on Tesla you may remember what happened here uh that was back in July I think it was so notice as Tesla stuck was rallying here I was warning that look Tesla is reaching extreme overbought conditions here on the RSI the RSI 34 setting so 34 is a Fibonacci number and usually when we apply the 34 setting of RSI here to Tesla notice became extremely overbought here and these overbought conditions were not seen since June of last year in fact you can see that in June of last year the RSI 34 setting became extremely overbought right there and then soon afterwards you can see what happened it then was followed by strong drop pullback just like it occurred over here after overbought conditions we saw a very strong deep pullback so that's why technicals do matter and that's why we look at them okay so another important thing is that Tesla has just recently broken out again through this trend line resistance and also the most recent high that it made right there so that's a good sign we're seeing signs of strength here in Tesla stock and as a matter of fact we can see that yeah so it's surging higher and we're not far away as a matter of fact Tesla stock is not that far away from the highs it made just before that drop that occurred there so I want to explain to you what I think is going on here again briefly as possible I don't want to make this video too long but what I think is much more likely now as far as the targets are concerned and where I think Tesla is going and it's quite simple what I would like to see is Tesla staying above a key support level and the support level I have in mind right now is right about here I would say let me just get my pen so I would say it's here about 202 let's just say 200 let's keep it simple so notice for example Tesla stock here retraced so you can see when it dropped it retraced down to the 61.8% golden ratio retracement of the prior rally that level is about 189 now that level is important too uh about 181 so that low that it made there that low that was made just about 181 182 that's going to be very important this green line so Tesla really needs to stay above this key level 182 or 181 but I would say even this level is going to be important here this most recent low the 202.5 N level there blue line that level I think is going to be extremely important for for Tesla to protect so in other words if Bulls are going to remain in control Tesla must stay above that level okay because any drop below this level now I'm not saying it's going to happen but if if Tesla were to breach and fall below that level at any point in the next few weeks then that would be a very dangerous and bearish sign for Tesla if that is it were to breach that level but for now as long as Tesla can stay above and protect that support that low that was made there at about 181 182 I'm going to remain bullish cautiously bullish on Tesla okay so I'm actually expecting higher levels now there could be a pullback in the short term I mean currently we're retracing back to the 78.6% tonacci retracement there as we can see so there a bit of a so reaching actually a point of resistance uh right there and also psychological uh resistance right here as well that's about 250 this level right here this purple level the 78.6% poal retracement about 250 so that might create some resistance for Tesla we'll see it might breach that level we shall see but the bottom line is that if Tesla holds this level 250 we might see a temporary pullback my point is this whether Tesla has a pullback or not the bottom line is that any retracements or pullbacks must be able to stay above this support at about 200 202 as long as we stay above that level for now Bulls of control and for me this bullish wave count is the more likely scenario and wave count for Tesla stock in the next several months going to perhaps next year okay now I'm sure you've seen this particular wave count before I showed it to you some months ago so quite simply what this means is that from the highs we made here in Tesla in 2021 we had an a-wave drop a corrective drop as we can see there and then from that low that was made in early 2023 which by the way we got bullish on you may remember we got very bullish on Tesla right about here then we started the a-wave the smaller a-wave of the larger b-wave in in blue so this was the smaller degree a-wave then we had the b-wave retracement here in yellow so a b in yellow and now we're likely starting the seawave so provided provided Tesla stays above this key support this near support here about 200 202 my view is that we're quite likely in the seawave in yellow taking us eventually perhaps by the end of this year or maybe by next year perhaps by the start of next year to those upper levels now I'll talk about this in a few minutes but the bottom line is I think we're now in the c-wave of the b-wave in blue other words this would be our b-wave okay the bigger b-wave and then once this b-wave completes likely in this Zone which I think could take us to about it could take us to this Zone here between 314 to 338 to potentially 350 to 360 levels here so I think there is a chance that Tesla could rally to the to this level level here the 78.6% of retracement off the prior decline here at about 345 360 so to put it quite simply in my view as long as Tesla as long as Tesla stays Above This near support this level here at about 200 202 I think Bulls are in control and despite any pullbacks that may occur but overall I'm still expecting the longer path the bigger move is part of the c-wave of B to take us into this zone between again 300 14 uh 338 345 to potentially even 360 regions there okay that to me is much more likely and by the way I'm sure you've guessed it once the c-wave of B completes likely in this Zone then I think we could see a top in Tesla and then eventually start the bigger seawave perhaps next year not this year but next year we could see the start of the seawave down to much lower levels in fact below the lows that were made in 2023 now before some of you get scared let me just say this at the moment let's just put this out of our minds okay so even though I think that we will see a top in Tesla sometime next year if not this year so I think we'll see a top in Tesla in this Zone by the way I know some of you probably thinking well could the b-wave extend all the way to the highs that were made in 2021 yes it is possible there is a possibility for the b-wave for this larger rally to extend even as high as the prior highs were made in 2021 that is possible but for now I'm dealing with what is probable not with what is possible so I think the higher problem probility is for this b-wave there was a c-wave of B to take us in this Zone that I mentioned between about 314 340 to potentially 360 and then for the B wve here to Top by the way I think at this point eventually when we reach this Zone I think there's going to be a lot of bulls in this market so a lot of these Mega Bulls you know the Tesla Bros they're going to be saying no way Tesla stock is never going to crash we're going to see Tesla continuing to go much higher to 500 600 $700 I mean these guys are going to be full of it full of it at this point they're going to be so bullish at this point but I think that's the level those are the levels where potentially we should be very careful because we could see a top in this region likely next year not this year again I don't know exactly when next year it's going to be but again I'm expecting some kind of a top maybe in this upper zones here I think the upper zones are more likely personally for me I think that the 345 to 360 regions are much more likely of the C wve of B okay and then eventually we're going to see after the top forms a bigger drop for the seawave going down next year again potentially by the end of next year not this year okay so that's really my view as far as Tesla is concerned as long as Tesla stays above key support yes I know I'm repeating this point that as long as Tesla stays above 20022 I'm going to give Tesla some more room in the next several weeks and months despite any pullbacks that may occur here for the oper levels and by the way if Tesla does not see a pullback soon and instead just follows through and takes out the prior high that was made here some weeks ago that would be even more bullish for Tesla if it takes out the prior high that was made but that is something to keep in mind now let me show you the other potential wave count the red count now let me say this I'm only showing this from the point of view of risk okay if my bullish wave count for Tesla here if this is wrong and let's say let's say Tesla's stock was suddenly to drop below 200 202 then I have no choice to abandon this wave count and instead move into this Red Wave count okay so I would only move into this Red Wave count which again I don't think is likely I'm not expecting this but I would only consider this wave count this bearish Red Wave count if if Tesla's stock was to plunge and fall below the 200 level okay so if Tesla was to suddenly drop from near current levels or higher levels if it were to drop and plunge below 200 202 this support level here or let's just say these levels here both these levels so let's say 2 181 if both of these levels get breached or broken in the next several weeks and months which I don't expect again this is a lower probability expectation here I don't think it's likely but if that level if that support level was to get broken then I would have to move into this bearish wave count which would mean that means any drop below 200 would mean a likely seawave the third wave the seawave to much lower levels by the way that would mean that this was the wave 1 wave two and the wave three of the seawave to to much lower levels below the lows that were made in 2023 which would take us all the way to next year by the way not this year but all the way to next year in other words quite a bearish wave count and a big drop to occur not just this year but going into next year again let me just repeat the point I made earlier I'm not bearish on Tesla so this is a lower probability wave count in scenario so I'm not expecting this for me this yellow wave count or blue and yellow wave count is much more likely so I'm actually bullish on Tesla for the next several weeks and months despite any pullbacks so even if even if we see a pullback in the near term in the next week or so I think as long as Tesla stays above uh as as long as Tesla protects and stays above this region here the 200 level I'm looking eventually for Tesla perhaps by the end of this year and next year eventually to move into the upper uh the upper targets again in this region between 314 to 338 to potentially the upper levels 345 to 360 likely in the next several weeks and months okay guys that's really what I have here on Tesla let me know what you think in the comment section which wave count is more likely for you do you think we could see higher levels by the end of this year forget the next few weeks I'm talking about the next several months do you think we could see much higher levels in the next several months going to the end of this year or do you think we could see much lower levels in the next several months let me know in the comments all right guys if this video has helped please give it a like and also please subscribe for future video updates thanks a lot bye for now
Comments 0