저자: AlessioRastani · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 12월 고점 약 480달러에서 약 50% 하락해 235달러 부근까지 밀림. 피보나치 61.8%(161.8) 되돌림 부근 및 212달러 지지선 근접. RSI(21) 과매도와 MACD 골든크로스 임박으로 반등 가능성 증가 언급. 252달러 돌파 필요, 286~304달러 구간(추세선·되돌림 저항) 상회 시 바닥 확인으로 봄. 추세선·182~167달러 지지 붕괴 시 추가 하락 가능성 경고. 과매도 반등은 추세 하락장에서는 신뢰도 낮다고 설명.
다듬은 글
By the way, I think I'm I think I'm right in saying that this is Yeah, the MACD is extremely oversold. Look at that. The MACD is I mean this is very oversold. Yeah, we are we are at levels which not which we've not seen for some time. In fact, hey guys, Allesio. Hope you're well. Welcome to this brand new video, an update on Tesla.
So, in this video, we're going to take a look at the chart of Tesla stock in particular some of these charts you're seeing here and the significantly big drop I've seen in Tesla stock about a 50% drop from the highs we had in December. Could this be the sign that Tesla has topped? Or could there be a potential and hope that perhaps Tesla can rally to new highs?
I'm going to explain to you what needs to happen for Tesla to show to us that it's bottomed. And there's some interesting things I'm going to show you here today in this video with my friend Human as well. All right, guys. Join us. Okay, welcome back. Uh, by the way, guys, if you uh watch my previous video on Bitcoin and stock market, you probably know I'm not in the UK.
I'm currently in Tehran in Iran. People here in Iran just celebrate the Persian New Year, which as you can see here, I was with my friends Sar and Human here. We've had a great time with the new year countdown and all that happened today as I'm making this video. In fact, by the way, Human, what is the new year now in Iran?
What's the new year? Persian new year. Uh 1404. 1404. So guys, should be quite interesting. Let's dig into the charts. All right, guys. So, as you can see, we've got the chart of Tesla. Here's a daily chart of Tesla stock. And in a few minutes, I'm going to explain to you what's this particular chart telling us here as well.
I've got some things here on this chart of Tesla. Okay. So, uh, really, as you can see here, the chart of Tesla has dropped dramatically from the highs we had. Let's just take a look here, the highs we had in December near 480. It dropped down almost 50%, just over 50% to these lows we had. Um, yeah, just these lows, uh, as we can see here near 235.
Uh, I think that's correct. Uh yeah. So the important point is that we've actually come down to several important levels of support. For one thing, notice we've come very close to the 61.8 actually 161.8% golden ratio retracement there of this initial decline. In other words, we measure this initial decline here.
That would give us the 1618 golden ratio retracement. And we're very close to this next support here as well near 212. But that's not really the interesting part. The interesting part here by the way is that uh take a look over here. For example, notice uh by the way, Human, do you know this particular indicator down here?
Yes. Go ahead. What is it? RSI. Good. Well done, Human. Yes, you're absolutely right. We've got two RSIs here. We have the I believe this is a 21 setting. And this down here, I'll do this with different color. This down here is the 14 setting. Both are oversold. Actually, they became oversold recently.
But let's just do let's just deal with one particular RSI. We don't need both of them. Okay. Yeah. So the 21 setting of RSI became extremely oversold as we see there. And Human when RSI becomes oversold what usually happens in your in your opinion? When is oversold there usually is overbounce? You mean there's a bounce?
Yeah, exactly. You're right. So yeah, Humman's right. When we get oversold conditions like this, there typically is a bounce, especially after we go above these averages. So, when it's in an uptrend like this and then you drop down and then the price drops down to support with oversold conditions on RSI, yeah, the odds increase for a bounce.
Um, just let you know guys that I don't use RSI when we're in a downtrend. So for example, when price is below the averages like this and we get oversold conditions, that's not the same thing uh because the odds are actually different and actually much less for a bounce when price is in a downtrend like we were here.
But when an uptrend uh like this, so when when price was moving higher in an uptrend here with above the averages and then declines and drops with oversold conditions on the RSI, the odds increase for some kind of a bounce in the short term. Now, I'm not saying there definitely will be a bounce. There's no guarantees in the markets, but I think the odds are increasing for some kind of a relief rally or a bounce.
By the way, guys, notice one thing here. Notice this indicator we have here. You know what this is? Yes. MACD. MACD and notice uh human everyone the MACD is about to make a crossover you see so the blue line is about to go above the red line soon so that's also a positive sign and when that happens and I think if Tesla can get above 252 here so we got resistance right above here we got resistance the near resistance about 252 if we can get Tesla price to move above that the odds increase for some kind of a bounce to 300, maybe even higher.
Okay, so I'm watching that very closely. But as long as we stay below 252 here, I think pressure still remains to the downside for now. But nevertheless, I think the given the oversold conditions here, we're seeing oversold conditions with the RSI 21 setting. Given the MACD is about to cross over as well, I think the probability is increasing for some kind of a potential relief rally or bounce probably back to some other previous resistance like the 300 level here 303 potentially even higher.
By the way, let me just show you this here as well. Notice that the price here broke down below this trend line support. You see this uh trend line support there? Yes. You can see it broke below that. Yeah, you see this this trend line. Now, usually in most textbooks, they tell you that that if the trend line breaks, well, that means we're in a downtrend.
That's not necessarily true. You have to wait for the next bounce. As you know, Human, in fact, we discussed this recently with Human here. And we have to wait for the next bounce. So, let for example, let me just show you what I mean. Uh there probably will be a bounce coming or a relief rally coming in the next few days and weeks.
Let's wait and see where the next rally or the next bounce takes us. If we can move above the trend line here and above 300 then or 3034 then the odds increase for Tesla to bottom. So what I'm what I'm saying is that if Tesla price can get above these levels especially this trend line resistance and 304 303 this near resistance there then the odds increase for a bottom in the price.
Okay. But if Tesla cannot do that, if if Tesla cannot recover and get above those levels of resistance, then that's not a good sign. We need to get above those levels. You see that? Those levels are between 300 or 286 to about 304, that yellow box there. It needs to get above that to say the price has bottomed.
Okay. Yeah. And I think we have to wait for that bounce, that rally, that potential rally, which I think is coming likely in the next uh several days and weeks. Uh but I think once that happens, we could find out what Tesla wants to do here. So, by the way, notice that below this, we have another trend line.
You see that yellow amount there? Yes. Yeah. So, we have another trend line right below here. I'm using a non-logarithmic standard chart because the trend lines actually appear more accurately on these charts. Um so, I prefer standard charts for trend lines. So, if Tesla were to push lower, well, I mean, I think it's less likely for it to reach all the way down here without without a bounce.
The bottom line is this that if Tesla were to continue to push lower, we do have several support levels right about here uh between 182 and 167 where I think we could uh again hold those levels potentially probably and then see a strong bounce. But I think uh given the oversold conditions we're seeing right now with the MACD here about to cross over with the RSI, it would not surprise me at all if we see some kind of a potential again uh relief rally, some kind of a strong bounce back to 300.
Okay, back to the trend line. By the way, let me just show you this as well. This chart here, what I've done is I've put these lines on my chart. These are Fibonacci lines. Um Fibonacci has Yeah. So as we know Fibonacci can be very helpful. We have the 38.2% retracement of this previous decline. What I've done is I've measured the Fibonacci levels from this uh high to this low.
And I think quite likely we're going to see a test. I think Tesla in the next bounce will probably come back and test first of all it will test probably the trend line and this 300 level the 38.2% retracement. But as I said, Tesla has to get above 252 first to open the door for that bounce back to the trend line to 86 level to 300 level.
Okay. So let's see what happens. Uh for me, by the way, we've got this regression channel. See this regression channel? See that channel? Um do you see that home there? Yes. I've drawn this uh regression channel which you see uh in blue. So if I just draw this for you, you can see that you see that line coming down there with the red and this blue.
I think that Tesla needs to get above that regression channel. Mhm. If Tesla can get above this regression channel and the trend line and the 300 level, then the odds increase for a bounce. So I pardon, then the odds increase for a bottom. Okay, we haven't got that just yet. So, but I think the but I think a sufficiently strong kind of relief rally again as we say bounce uh sorry for repeating that word now for so many times but I think some kind of a strong relief rally is coming given the oversold conditions as well with the MACD I mentioned earlier and this is the resistance I'm looking at right here where the top of the regression channel meets us at about 300 and the 38.2% retracement of 302.
Um, so let's see if we can get that. Um, and I think we could get that. Do you have any questions? Do you have anything you want to say there about that, Human? So, by the way, but one thing I should say, guys, one thing I forgot to mention here is that my friend Charlie Burton, as a matter of fact, in a video we made back on the 23rd of February, he correctly said that he was waiting for Tesla to drop to levels like 280 and 300.
I think I think he mentioned 300 and maybe even 280. I'll put the clip there so you can watch and listen to it. That that's a nice sort of zone to keep keep an eye on. That's what I've got on my chart. Well, actually on my chart I've got it between sort of 280 and 300. But Charlie was absolutely right.
I was quite surprised that Tesla dropped as low as it did. I was looking for 300 and 280, but I wasn't expecting it to move as low as it did below 250. So, it was a very sharp drop there on Tesla. Uh but I think I think the conditions are are ripe for some kind of a bounce potentially. As you see uh you can see many resistance moving average.
Yeah. And and blah blah blah. Uh maybe Tesla can't downtrend. Yeah. Yeah. And Oh, you mean it could be in a downtrend? Yes. I needed more rest. Tesla needed more rest and after word Yeah. market can yeah I think what um what what what Human is saying actually is a good point what I think is saying and I think is right is that here here's here's something important which I forgot to mention and I'm glad Human reminded me if Tesla for example sees a bounce which I think is likely let's say we get a strong bounce from near this region here anywhere from within near current regions or even below lower okay let's say we get a strong bounce back to 300 okay from this region or even lower.
Okay, doesn't matter. And then we see and let's say price then reverses lower and makes a new low. If that happens, I'm not saying it's going to happen. If that happens, that would be a sign we're in a downtrend and that Tesla has topped. Okay? So, be be aware of that. If Tesla makes a strong bounce back from current levels or even lower levels, if if it makes a strong, so let's say we get a strong rally back to resistance, okay, and then pushes lower again from anywhere from let's say this region, okay, so let's say we we bounce back and then rolls over and makes a fresh new low from that resistance.
That's a very strong sign that Tesla's topped. Why? because that would be a sign we're going into a downtrend because the rallies are failing and we're making fresh new lows after a bounce or a rally. If that occurs, if the next rally fails to push us back above resistance and move into let's say above 300 or 320 region there, then no, that would be a sign that would be a sign that Tesla's topped.
I'm hoping it won't happen, but if that h if that happens, that means Tesla has potentially topped and we could see significantly lower levels. Maybe down to 180, 160, uh maybe back below the lows we made. By the way, I should say if this trend line breaks, if this yellow trend line here breaks, you see this, you see that near 180, 167, that's a sign that probably Tesla's topped.
So a break below 182 167 there or this trend line support would be a sign that Tesla's potentially topped and we could see significantly lower levels likely in 2025. U but of course if Tesla I think probably let's wait and see what the next bounce or rally does. Again let's see what happens. If we can move, if Tesla can move above 300, 304, that would be a sign that Tesla has bottomed and we could potentially rally to new highs or even test the prior highs of 480 near that level.
That's really what I'm going to say about Tesla for now. So, I'm going to see I'm going to be patient and wait and see what what's going to happen on Tesla for the next rally, the next bounce after these oversold conditions here, as I mentioned with the RSI with the MACD about to cross over. Let's see what happens and then we can make a make a better uh judgment.
By the way, I think I'm I think I'm right in saying that this is Yeah, the MACD is extremely oversold. Look at that. The MACD is I mean this is very oversold. Yeah, we are we at levels which not which we've not seen for some time. In fact guys, that's what I got here on the charts. Thank you very much indeed from me and Oman here.
Thank you very much and a very happy Persian new year to all of you guys. Cheers.
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