저자: Kevin · 외국인
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이민 증가로 인한 인플레이션·스태그플레이션 우려로 금리 인하가 늦어질 수 있다는 주장. Etsy는 소비재 침체와 가격결정력 부재로 부정적. 주택 순자산 마이너스 주택 비율 증가, 트럼프 관련 스토미 다니엘스 재판 증언의 신빙성 논란, 영국 금리 인하 가능성, Arm 실적 소폭 미달 언급. 개인 트레이딩 성과도 공유.
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the bank of England's rate decision is in Donald Trump is profiled by the Wall Street Journal and Stormy Daniels gets a hit consumer discretionarily underwater not looking that great and if you're looking for immigration concerns in the United States well let's just say immigration could be the reason you might not see rate Cuts declining this year and that includes illegal immigration let's get started there on today's meet Kevin report so the permanent population increase from immigration ultimately is concluded by Bloomberg to create a net positive demand shock ultimately boosting prices and wages the problem is it takes years for a new group of people to actually solidly integr R into an economy and create that productive boost that you would expect from GDP in other words I think the way I like to think about it is imagine you had a factory and you added on another part to the building and you stuck a bunch of people and machines in it it takes a couple years for that part of the factory to actually really start firing on all cylinders cranking out goods and services but in the meantime it feels like like you're spending more money on that Machinery on on human capital basically creating this feeling of stagflation because your wage expenses are up your goods and services well your goods on the Machinery expenses are up so it feels like prices are up remember prices and wages going up you don't actually have the output yet that's just an analogy that I like to use but it basically mirrors what Bloomberg suggests they see that the three sorry the 7 million immigrants that have come into the United States between 21 and 2023 uh which have included 5 million who do not yet have lawful residents are going to create stagflationary effects for the next two years leaving to the likelihood that we'll have higher interest rates for longer now again in 1 to two years maybe we'll see a stronger economy assuming we don't go into a recession before that now the part about going into a recession before that is my opinion Bloomberg suggests it's going to feel like stagflation and then we'll go to boom and I'm kind of like well who says we got to go from here to here we could also go wo especially as those higher rates hit and that's something Bloomberg hits on as well they suggest uh that the lag defs of high interest rates could hit at the same time as the higher spending on labor and higher spending on products while productivity Falls and housing becomes more expensive and minimum wage hits take longer for for businesses to actually really integrate into their businesses to increase and boost productivity so in English rents up from immigration more housing problems higher for longer rates at the same time as wages and prices are still going up it's going to feel a whole lot like stagflation leaving the FED not to act as soon as we might expect thanks to immigration and 70% of that immigration is coming through that Southwest border so immigration clearly an issue but at least today per the Atlanta fed GDP is not an issue with GDP currently sitting at 4.2% per the Atlanta fed now this I think is dare I say almost ludicrous but you could see a picture of it here uh this is well up from their estimates of 3.2 to 37 in April and they see GP at 4.2% in Q2 absolutely nuts uh but they do now remember GDP is not just what consumers are spending money on because in that case we'd probably be in a recession for example you could see what the president of Blackstone says with quote we see a deceleration of growth central banks will be slow on cutting rates though so can you really invest before the all clear sign in other words like hey things could get a little dicey going forward here we got to be a little bit careful this isn't good uh and then you look at companies like Etsy and you're like maybe we're already in a recession now we're going to talk Etsy and then we got to get into that homeowner Equity report and we got to talk Trump take a look at this uh this is what we've got from Etsy Etsy reports in their earnings call just a few days ago uh these headwinds are real and they do not appear to be abating consumer wallet remain squeezed uh consumer sentiment remains depressed macro quite challenging especially in the UK and Germany consumers feel pressured seeking value and discounts and China is providing those discounts shout out to uh Teemu there as well as uh probably Alibaba and Starbucks Etsy sellers now apparently feel no pricing power they've actually been in this situation probably for a little over a year now uh and even regular Spenders are spending less uh here are the screenshots of it and we can see a little bit more here very high cost of money uh gross merchandise sales continue to be pressured by macro factors specifically related to Consumer discretionary remember this just one part of the economy you know Joe Biden's spending on the inflation reduction act infrastructure spending military defense contractor spending exports all of those things contribute to our GDP outside of consumer discretionary you know continued high prices in real estate all of those aspects contribute to GDP so you can have a really weak consumer the question is what happens when the other parts start falling in line with recession that's when you get a real recession uh and unfortunately one of those uh oh yeah and this was interesting too habitual buyers decrease their purchases uh 3% % gear over-year and they continue to observe a trend where some habitual buyers purchase slightly fewer items or spend slightly less and no longer meet the definition of being a habitual buyer yikes yikes so we're really seeing some softness there on that consumer discretionary said not great but at least homeowner Equity is up right no get ready for this report right after I take a sip while I take the Sip over at meetkevin.com we had another profitable trading day yesterday uh only up a little over $3,700 yesterday traded with about $ 14,000 so percentage wise it's pretty good but had I not fat fingered I would have been up about 8K I was live trading uh and so I live traded that 8K profit uh but unfortunately while I was live trading in the course remember live which you'd always get access to uh Lauren Max and Jack walked in it's not to blame them I take full responsibility I made a little oopsy doopsy but accidentally doubled down before closing my position and that like 2-minute oopsy doopsy cost me about 4K but I was still up on the day cuz we had that many games so if you want on my Buy sell alerts make sure you join that stocks and sight course uh it's always your own fault never blame somebody else remember when you point the finger three fingers always point back at yourself so um double check your trades before you hit that button I know sometimes it's so exciting uh but yeah Life Training family uh and and and trying to explain it all at the same time little challenging anyway check that out think about that meetkevin.com let's get into the homeowner Equity report and it's an oopsy dupsies cheers ah good old kala in I mean coffee in the morning all right homeowner Equity this is an interesting one lowest level in 2 years and the percentage of seriously underwater homes per a home equity report by atom uh increased to 2.7% from 2 .6% last quarter seriously underwater homes include homes with at least 25% more debt than the estimated home value uh now that's actually crazy because that means you would have had to have essentially Almost 100% financing and then the market would have had to have fallen on you substantially so maybe like in Austin Texas where you did see a big kind of oopsy doopsy off some of that Peak uh pricing we've seen uh the report says that this spring will be important for telling us if this is a longer term trend or not so in other words they're saying hey buckle up things could actually get a whole lot worse before they get better so maybe you ought to buckle up and be prepared and be a little patient before rushing to buy 1 in 37 homes are now seriously underwater and the least underwater are in the Northwest so I think like you know the Richer parts of New York and the Richer parts of the West like California parts of California I personally note that this is not surprising given that these are the areas with the highest concentration of nimes the not in my backyard folks uh and it's either a result of nimes or the lack of building or both uh and specifically some of these areas also include San Jose San mono Orange County so all those Coastal California areas as well as Coastal Florida Palm Beach and Miami so not great biggest declines uh in equity were led by Kentucky South Carolina Georgia and then Delaware and Indiana so uh some pain there abs absolutely in homeowner Equity but where there doesn't appear to be so much pain is well at least in court yet for Donald Trump although it might have been painful for some folks to listen to stormmy Daniels quote unquote salacious testimony her testimony has just had a little bit of cold water thrown on it by the Wall Street Journal editorial board now keep in mind the Wall Street Journal editorial board they are um how should I say uh they lean right okay no that's not a big deal that's not a problem it's okay to have a tilt with your bias I always try to be in the middle which it is like the crappiest position to be in because I'll tell you the best example I could give is when I try to be in the middle on the Israel Gaza situation if I if I don't mention enough about the hostages I get angry emails from israelies uh or Jews that's not that's not bad to say that okay they are Jewish okay got to be so careful uh and then if I don't say enough uh about uh uh the the loss of life of children in GSA every single time then then obviously I don't care about children dying and how could I uh when how could I not when I have seven children it's like can it just stop can it just all stop can the death just stop can we just have the truths that we're supposedly close to but we're not close to yet I I don't know it's it's just a disaster so being in the middle is really tough much easier just stay on one side because then you don't have to repeat yourself over and over again that you see on both sides you know then people are like oh but you know protesters are saying from the uh uh from The River To The Sea which is basically trying to eradicate Israel and you know Israel has no Homeland then otherwise and then people were like but what about the the outposts and the settlements in the West Bank and it's like okay okay we're just trying to report here uh keep in mind mind that uh we still have no updates on that truths and still waiting for more insight from uh what kind of weapon deliveries are going to be held back from Israel for crossing that blurry red line that Joe Biden gave uh to Israel though uh keep in mind if Israel comes under threat the United States and the United Kingdom will be the first there on sort of the uh uh rescue wagon to make sure Israel is well taken care of so this whole idea of we're going to withhold weapons I think is just itical nonsense anyway take a look at this the Wall Street Journal editorial board they suggest that Trump is entitled to the presumption of innocence we can agree with that everybody should even if you don't like Trump everybody's Presumed Innocent before proven guilty uh the uh point of Stormy Daniels being on trial was to prove her credibility this is true we've talked about that as well uh they indicate that her recollection was almost play byplay and usually juries don't require that much detail and they refer to like divorce cases that's not great because it sort of enhances stormy's credibility but then the Wall Street Journal quickly tries to pull that right back down she says uh in 2018 on 60 Minutes that she didn't want to have sex with Trump wasn't attracted to him but wouldn't say no yet in her book she calls it an outof Body Experience she then testified that she tried to leave and Trump tried to stop her once but she blacked out and didn't know what happened next despite sugges suggesting she she didn't drink or take any drugs so uh then the Wall Street Journal makes it clear that this is probably the last chance people have at seeing Trump actually get convicted if that's what they wanted uh so you know I I suggest that there's a solid highlight here to credibility challenges but In fairness this was 18 years ago so some blurriness doesn't necessarily mean the incident didn't occur but that's pretty much the core of the case there is in my opinion is if the incident didn't occur or people don't believe stormmy Beyond A Reasonable Doubt Trump's free this is a criminal case so you have the highest burden of proof here uh and uh it's kind of tough to prove uh uh you know unless you got uh screenshots as we like to say in the gamer World screenshots or didn't happen well I don't necessarily know that we want those screenshots but let's just say um they're no screenshots at least uh again not that that matters and I'm not imparting an opinion here uh okay so uh this gives us a little bit of a heads up of what's going on with Trump uh couple other things Bank of England may cut sooner and more rapidly than expected they had their first sort of non-unanimous cut here seven or sorry of uh stabiliz stabilizing rate hold uh 72 at keeping rates uh stable but are giving a heads up that they're seeing greater doubt from businesses at being able to pass on higher wage costs uh and uh we are starting to see uh low GDP Outlook one just 1.25 % for 2026 at the same time arm is down like 7% in the pre market as the outlook for their fiscal year missed by 2.8% this was so freaking minor uh as opposed to the $4.0 billion doar expected in Revenue they reported 3.9 billion for for the full year ahead in terms of expectations this is not a big deal like super minor the numbers were actually really good from arm but they're just not enough to offset some of that crazy crazy Wall Street greed oh well so anyway that gives you a little bit of an overview of everything from we've covered the bank of England uh it's also interesting to see them talk about ups and downs and data that uh you know we we could see these ups and downs just being normal and Blackwell chips obviously coming from Nvidia and could accelerate arm and data centers uh no pricing power over at uh Etsy that's been clear for a while it's I think one of the reasons the stock has just been bleeding out the way it has it's one of the reasons I divested from ety uh right around January of 2020 uh three after having exposed myself to them a little bit in November of 22 thinking maybe we'd get a bottom nope not yet not yet still no indication that we're there now the seriously underwater homes report is not ideal uh and uh we want to see if that Trend continues or if this is just sort of a onetime oopsies uh Blackstone I think puts it well and their president when they say hey maybe we should wait and see especially in the face of some of those uh you know immigration numbers that are basically propping this stagflationary feeling up not great at all anyway thanks so much for watching this me Kevin report number three cheers and we'll see you ack Doom
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