저자: Kevin · 외국인
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일론 머스크가 2012년 부여받은 테슬라 스톡옵션(2280만주, 행사가 $6.24)을 행사하며 세금 부담을 위해 약 10% 주식을 매도했다는 분석. 월요일 첫 매도(약 5%), 화요일 대량 거래량(5,900만주)으로 나머지 매도 추정. 세금 부담은 약 130~140억 달러로 추정. 광고(Masterworks) 포함. 주가 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here it's official elon musk has begun selling shares of tesla stock let's get right into what's going on quick mention though this video is brought to you by masterworks link in the description and more on them in just a moment so folks elon musk was assigned way back in 2012 or awarded i should say 22.8 million shares of tesla at a strike price of six dollars and 24 cents and the way stock-based compensation works is that if you get awarded stock options that vest at a certain point in the future you either exercise them to take the shares or you lose them you obviously don't want to lose them so you're going to exercise them but the problem with that is if the stock for example is selling for twelve hundred dollars and your options have a strike they're kind of like call options they have a strike of six dollars and 24 cents when you receive the shares for six dollars and 24 cents you are going to have to pay taxes on the difference here that's because this is a form of compensation now elon musk i'm not sure if he's going to have to pay these taxes as a quarterly this year or he'll have if he'll have to pay them uh in in on april 15th or if he's going to go on extension next year to pay them so he might be able to play with the money or just get rid of the tax bill just pay the tax bill now and get it over with that's also a possibility who knows maybe in the meantime he'll throw his money into bitcoin that'll just be speculation though but elon musk has to pay taxes on this difference so that would be in this case about eleven hundred ninety three dollars and seventy six cents that he would have to pay uh in uh intel well taxes on and so taxes on this would probably be somewhere in the neighborhood of 45 percent uh possibly closer to 50 just depending on his tax situation and uh exactly where his domicile is i believe he's in texas now uh but i don't know if he's been there the full year so that's obviously going to depend since he just moved from california but anyway the point is he's going to have to pay a lot of taxes on 11 93 in gains in this example i think he's sold for slightly less than this so probably a little less than this but the point is he's gonna have to pay taxes on this so elon musk knows that he can borrow money he could take out a margin loan basically a loan against his stake in tesla or he could sell shares to cover his tax liability we expect that his tax liability would be somewhere between 13 to 14 billion dollars and if tesla sells somewhere around 10 of his tesla holdings he would get somewhere around 28 billion dollars but he would probably also have to pay taxes on a substantial portion of that 28 billion dollars so you'd probably have to pay another let's say 14 billion dollars and this shows you how literally his full 28 billion dollars could potentially be going to taxes so the portion that he sold the 28 billion dollars that he potentially sold that's about 10 percent to cover uh the taxes he has on his options but then also the taxes on the shares that he sold so potentially all that money is going to taxes now he's still going to be way up i mean consider this 22.8 million shares of tesla hey siri 22.8 million times eleven hundred second here 25 billion eighty million yeah so basically really what he's doing here is it's like he liquidated approximately 28 billion dollars paid that all in taxes to cover taxes on his options that he got and then he got the shares right back via options it's brilliant but what's even more brilliant is he branded it as if he let twitter decide that for him obviously if you're going to put on twitter hey should i pay more in taxes you're probably going to end up paying more taxes right but anyway elon musk just filed his first form s4 we expect that there's going to be another one tomorrow because remember you have two days to file the form i'm going to show you the form to show you when he sold but uh quickly i just want to mention that we do have a sponsor for today's video and that is masterworks so i'm excited about sharing this with you for masterworks so a lot of you know that we're always tracking trends trying to understand what's going on with hedging against inflation market crashes and the market's pretty volatile and some equity firms are projecting real returns of five percent or less for the broader stock market and morningstar is potentially even predicting negative growth and that's not good and that's not to say they're right but it's something that can take into consideration if you're looking to diversify your portfolio away from stocks and there's an asset class that a lot of folks don't talk a lot about now by some measures has outpaced the s p 500 by around 174 from 1995 to 2020.
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simply put you can now invest into the same art they do names like banksy and monet and other iconic art for just a fraction of what they pay to purchase because you're getting a slice now all you have to do to add these assets to your portfolio to diversify simply go to masterworks.io create an account and browse their latest artwork invest in any of their current offerings and just the same way that you would open up robinhood buy and potentially sell your shares of art so remember you can either hold your shares or you could sell them on the secondary market but so far investors have already received a 32 annualized return from 2020 when there was a sale of a banksy bona lisa pretty impressive but anyway check out the link in the description down below and for now let's go on back over to these sec forums so take a look at this this is one of the first of two sec forms filed by elon musk and this shows that we've got about 930 000 shares that were sold and they were sold anywhere from 1196 dollars down to 1176 on this particular sheet and on this sheet we see a lot of shares sold between 1175 and 11.35 so these shares were sold between 11 35 and 11.96 at the higher price on monday we have options here of 2.1 million shares that were acquired and this is just a fraction of the total options that elon musk has remember elon musk has the right to acquire 22.8 million shares and uh this is only a sale of 934 000 shares so given that we when we look at what kind of happened in the stock in tesla stock it looks like a lot of these sales were done on tuesday which is kind of what we expected which elon musk has until the end of the day tomorrow to file this sec form four to disclose that he so that he did sell the rest on tuesday if he indeed did but take a look at this if we go to the five-day chart here the first big drop that we get is on monday when the stock drops about five point nine five percent first batch of elon musk selling you could see the prices around 1161 1140 uh going down to 1148 intra minute you know or intra hour went down to 11 35 and lower and then tuesday we had significantly more volume and that's when we fell about 12 on the day now today tesla stock is actually up 4.34 potentially implying that the selling is done so what we have is an indicator that the first batch of selling was done here the second batch is selling we're sure of this we have a disclosure of this only about five percent of the shares were actually sold on this date but uh on tuesday we expect the rest of the shares were sold because look at the volume folks the average volume for tesla before this crazy run was somewhere around 13 to 20 million shares per day well if you go to monday you get 33 million shares of volume which is a substantial uptick from just friday before that at 21 million or the day before that at 25 million so substantial uptake at 33 million you'd expect a lot of media enthusiasm went into potentially selling tesla stock ahead of elon as well though and then the very next day we had 59 million shares of volume which is almost double the normal volume so it kind of makes sense that if elon was going to be selling around uh 10 of a stake or maybe around 28 million shares which is roughly what he was getting in stock options that tuesday was probably the day remember he's getting 22.8 million shares uh in in stock options 28 20 i'm sorry 22.8 million shares 28 billion dollars worth okay so 22.8 million shares it makes sense because if we remove all of that extra volume from tuesday's volume of 59 we'd get to about 31 million uh of of share volume which would kind of be right in line of what we've seen in prior days uh and certainly still elevated from uh prior weeks because we've been on this sort of euphoric run so bottom line elon musk has started his selling sold about five percent of what he committed to on monday we expect that the rest was done on tuesday we will get the final form for probably tomorrow afternoon uh this is very good news though keep in mind that the stock market is closed tomorrow though so that means no course member live stream unfortunately for all of those of you in the stocks and psychology and money group or any of the other linked below stock doc check that out learn my psychology of money and how i do fundamental analysis and all the good stuff so check that out link down below we'll see you again on friday folks thank you so much for being here enjoy veterans day tomorrow and we'll see you next time you
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