저자: Kevin · 외국인
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리비안(RIVN) 상장 전 영상. 아마존·포드 투자와 픽업·SUV·상용 EV 3라인으로 성장 잠재력은 크나, 실제 인도량은 미미하고 충전망 등 불확실성이 큼. 2025년 판매량 시나리오별 적정가치를 계산(낙관 시 주당 ~290, 보수 시 ~58 수준). 상장 직후 호재 열기가 최고조라 IPO 매수는 비추천, 열기가 식고 주가가 하락하면 재검토하겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
earn how i built my wealth and the psychology that i used to build my net worth from two and a half million dollars to 42 million dollars link down below hey everyone me kevin here let's talk about origin should you buy rivian stock well first things first this video is being made right before the ipo however the information within this video will still be relevant after the ipo so some of the stuff will be dated regarding the ipo because we'll know what'll have happened because we're going to include a little bit of my expectations as to what might happen at ipo but we're also going to talk fundamentals on this company and whether or not you should get into rivien so with that said let's get right into it rivian so far has sold very few vehicles yet its market cap is likely to exceed that of a honda and this is raising a lot of eyebrows why is this company getting so much attention why does everybody keep asking about rivian well they have three particular vehicles one is known as the r1t this is a toyota tacoma style pickup truck these are electric vehicles bevs battery electric vehicles and there's a lot of enthusiasm for rivien particularly because this company is backed by both amazon and ford which you think wait a minute ford's backing them and they have an electric pickup truck coming out as well yep but rivien also has the r1s which is an electric all-electric suv and you get the triple threat which is kind of like investing in like a fiskar and on arrival together because you get the triple threat of also getting into the commercial field of development so you get the pickup truck vertical you get the suv vertical and you get the vertical of these electric delivery vehicles or edvs and obviously slapping the prime logo on the side thanks to that prime partnership is a really sexy way to get lots of money for your stock and by going public with 135 million shares that they're offering to the public the company is expected to raise over 11 billion dollars which since they only had cash burn of about 1.6 billion dollars in the first half of 2021.
11 billion is going to go a long way to help this company develop their manufacturing and finally scale they've got a large plant in normal illinois and folks they are ready to produce they just need some more cashola and now we're going public at a time when evs are pretty hot in the conversation again especially since tesla just skyrocketed from the seven and eight hundreds up to a high of twelve hundred fifty dollars until of course elon musk had to come out and dump uh ten percent of his shares four reasons we don't need to go into in this video leading the stock to go right back to a thousand dollars but still the point is lucid has essentially doubled in the last few months and electric vehicles are all the rage right now so rivian's definitely chosen a hot hypey time to go public but let's talk a little bit because this company barely delivers vehicles honda sells five million vehicles per year and rivien doesn't so what makes rivian special well first with its vehicles rivien is trying to do pretty much everything that tesla is doing they're trying to do as well so first let's talk about autonomy a little bit the cars are expected to launch with level two driver assist features this is going to be like your honda or toyota where you have things like steering and braking anytime you just have one thing like cruise control that'd be level one autonomy if you have cruise control and steering and braking assistance or just two things from the pack you're at level two if you have level three this is where you can really take your hands off the wheel and let the car drive and you occasionally have to take over right the cars are going to be equipped the r1 vehicles are going to be equipped with 11 cameras 12 oil ultrasonic sensors 5 radars and high precision gps antenna which th these are important for future potential level 3 autonomy which they do expect in the future to get to level three autonomy but obviously we're nowhere near that place right now we would expect the company would be able to depolar tesla and try to use this sort of self-driving assisted data and help build out their self-driving platform to actually get to level three though taking a look at tesla's full self-driving beta there's a long road ahead and uh who knows how how we'll end up getting there hey but rivian might even in the future just license the self-driving autonomy from tesla and then have the sensors ready to go uh sensors and cameras uh lidar not being as uh as exciting for tesla obviously but anyway the cars come equipped with the hardware uh hardware does add a cost to the vehicles but hey it makes sense because really what they're trying to pitch is that they're going to be a future based company that is thinking about not just electric vehicles but also self-driving and autonomy and chargers they're planning their own dc charging sites and they're going to call them ran ran dc charging sites and rivian waypoints they uh also are going to have a charging management software both for fleets and individuals so like you can check charging on your iphone they're going to sell charging as a service so they can continue to milk revenue they do expect that within two years they will have over 3 000 network chargers 3 500 plan chargers and 600 different installation sites tesla just for comparison has 10 times as many chargers at about 29 381 and five times as many locations at 3264.
so worth noting 600 sites might sound like a lot tesla's got 5x that and we're talking about on brand chargers of course you could charge it off-brand chargers as well the company does manufacture its own battery pack of course they source their batteries elsewhere fleet management controls are a big deal for the company as well since they're really trying to get into that electric delivery vehicle space and the neat thing about those electric delivery vehicles is it's a space that a lot of companies are trying to get into but they're having trouble getting funding because we're company adoption just isn't there yet look at for example canoe another ev rival that really does these electric delivery vehicles but canoe has been floundering possibly because they don't have that consumer pre-order opportunity or that consumer buying say a pickup truck or an suv like rivian might to help fund the development of the commercial vehicle side imagine for example if tesla started with electric semi trucks instead of an expensive model x and s it'd be a whole lot harder for tesla to get off the ground so this is this is a good strategy by rivie and i support this and like this but now why is the company so exciting what is making this so exciting well the reality is the company is so excited well excited in the marketplace because of an amazon and ford investment and partnership essentially amazon has ordered 100 000 electric delivery vehicles 10 000 of those trucks are due by the end of the year though we don't actually expect that many to be delivered by the end of this year we'll see the details of the amazon deal itself like price per vehicle were redacted from public documents but we know the deal exists we also know that it is cancelable so amazon just has the first right of refusal on up to 100 000 vehicles but they do not actually have to purchase the the vehicles though obviously amazon is financially incentivized to be optimistic about this deal given that they've invested a lot amazon has plowed about 1.345 billion dollars into rivien so 1.3 almost a half billion dollars into rivian through stock investments and another 490 million purchasing bonds sold in july that's about a 1.8 billion dollar investment amazon stake is reported to be 20 percent in rivian and if reviewing tomorrow ipos and it gets to a hundred billion dollar valuation amazon will essentially have taken a 1.5 billion dollar investment and uh turned it into 20.
that is a return of about 13.3 percent i'm sorry 13.3 x so if you ever want to get rich quick just be amazon and invest in an electric vehicle company early by the way that does not mean you buying at ipo because you're making that richness happen for amazon we'll talk more about my expectations for the stock and what i invest in in just a moment and now amazon this partnership obviously very very big it's worth noting some people are wondering should you buy amazon stock to invest in rivian probably not amazon has like a 1.8 trillion dollar market cap so for every 100 you'd put into amazon only about 1.1 would actually go to rivian in terms of that ownership share right so that wouldn't necessarily make sense ford by the way also has a 12 stake and stands to make about 7 billion from their investment ford by the way spans plans to spend 30 billion on electric vehicles through 2025 gm by the way was also interested but ford ended up snagging the deal uh rather than gm and this was back in 2019 when gm was fighting for the company as well so now let's get to some revenue per vehicle and let's let's do some numbers on a spreadsheet here so revenue per vehicle we expect lifetime revenue for these vehicles to be sixty four thousand six hundred dollars now there's an asterisk on this because that does include roughly fourteen to fifteen thousand dollars of paid software and charging upgrades which i i'm not i don't generally like including in in the actual bundle of the the cost of the car uh but you can play this this however you want we're gonna do it both ways that way you can make uh your your own projections now uh regarding deliveries this becomes very important so revenue becomes important whether you go with 50 000 or 65 000 per vehicle or you end up oh i'm sorry you take those numbers and then multiply it by projections for say 2025 manufacturing these are going to be your big variables in terms of how you're going to come up with a projection for this company so how much per vehicle take a margin rate uh and then of course uh how many vehicles right very very important kind of simplistic but might sound complicated it'll make more sense when we put it on a spreadsheet so in order to do this there are a few different ways we can do estimates we could like take a look at behrens which suggests maybe we'll be able to sell 800 000 vehicles by 2025.
some folks are more bullish that we could get to a million by 2025. some folks are less optimistic they think we're only going to get to two three hundred thousand uh some folks think we're only gonna be at fifty thousand vehicles by uh 2025. so the numbers are absolutely all freaking over the place and this is very important to consider because when the numbers are all over the place it's important as an investor that you know you are speculating on not necessarily the stock but on your expectations for how many deliveries they're gonna have in four years from now in 2025.
so here's how i made sense of the numbers and this is sort of just my expectation the the company here in their amended s1 which is like 300 pages long they say that they expect their total addressable well the total addressable market for vehicles to be 81.1 million their serviceable addressable market so like pickups and suvs they think is about 7.9 mil so some people are just taking a percentage of that and saying okay well maybe if 7.9 is the total vehicle market maybe take 15 percent of that or 10 percent of that or whatever say riven can get that much i don't know about that so i'm going to put that speculation aside i'm going to show you how i'm going to go with a totally different number here so market wide in just the united states which even though they say u.s and canada and western europe i'm going to be conservative and i'm just going to use u.s numbers here we sell about 13 million commercial vehicles light commercial delivery style vehicles per year we also sell about 17 million pickups and suvs 14 of pickups eight point eight percent are suvs uh so well for 17 million sorry we sell about 17 million cars in the united states per your personal cars of that 14 of pickups 8.8 or suvs so what we could do is we could hop on over to a spreadsheet here and do a little bit of calculating number crunching the way i like to do it so i think if we take a three percent share of all the light commercial vehicles we get to about 390 000 vehicles keep in mind that ford has a 14 market share of the pickup segment okay maybe they'll get a higher segment but this is just of the uh this is of all pickups which is again pickups are 14 of 17 million vehicles sold if rivien gets three percent that would be 71 000 pickups we can modify this and we will we'll play with these numbers if ford's at 14 maybe rivian's going to end up being that 14 market share in the future which would obviously drastically change these numbers but we're going to start the numbers assuming 3 market share of pickups of suvs and of light commercial vehicles that brings us to about 506 000 vehicles for 25.
get rid of that that's old okay good so revenue per vehicle we'll go with the high number for now uh er we'll go with 67 000 oh sorry 60 yeah this is right 60 hold on i'm sorry lifetime revenue expected to be 64 600. there we go we'll go with this first so 64 600 lifetime revenue and so that's why for services i'm putting in zero here because we've got the ltr already lifetime revenue already built into the top here uh so now we're gonna put robo taxis all that other stuff we'll just leave that at zero that would be about 33.5 billion in revenue if we take a 25 expense ratio and a 22 tax rate slightly higher than the 21 where we are uh we'll probably be at an earnings per share of about two dollars and 91 cents in the future if we multiply that let's get rid of uh this is price today let's say it's 80 bucks today okay that doesn't matter so much so if we have a 2.91 eps uh in the future in 2025 and we multiply that assuming the company's really taking off it's it's growing and we multiply it by a hundred times this assumes a lot of growth still coming to the company a hundred times you know if they're manufacturing 500 000 vehicles you put 100 pe on it you're thinking they're still going to grow substantially they're going to do millions of vehicles per year right so you still have a lot of optimism for the company by the end of 2025 so in four years the company could be selling for 290 a share which obviously if you could buy it now at 80 dollars is a steal so if you buy today at let's say 80 that would be a 38 compounded annual rate of return over the next four years it's 38 38 38 38 that's great uh that's only folks at three percent uh for each of these categories it's actually not horrible now if i take off the lifetime revenue crap and i'm gonna go a little bit more conservative and just go with a fifty thousand dollar vehicle on average which by the way tesla's average is about forty nine thousand eight hundred nine hundred right around there so i think that's that's fair let's go with this number still giving them the twenty five percent expense uh uh margin over here uh so 75 expense 25 gross profit margin tesla's at about 30 gross profit so a little bit more but i'm going to be conservative here i'm going to stick with this margin this would get us to about 219 still very very very good right and obviously i mean these these numbers look look excellent and phenomenal but it all comes down to this folks literally all of it comes down to their ability to sell are they going to be able to ramp to this look in 2021 if we have i don't know 300 deliveries can we get to 15 000 vehicles in 2022 can we get to 50 000 vehicles here can we get to say i don't know 200 a thousand vehicles over here in 2024.
hopefully you could get there even sooner right honestly to get to to get on this path you'd probably have to take the money and ramp much faster you'd probably have to be something like uh this this kind of ramp schedule where you're at forty five thousand a hundred thousand uh two hundred seventy five thousand vehicles and then eventually you are at uh five 500 6 000.
that's that's probably the kind of ramp schedule you would need to to make this happen now uh obviously if they don't ramp like this and the numbers end up being a lot smaller then the stock's going to suffer let's say they only get one percent market share by 2025 which is four years away 168 000 vehicles 168 000 vehicles using the 50 000 number over here puts their stock price at 58 with a hundred times earnings but a hundred times earnings might not be true because if they're stagnating they might only earn a 50 times earnings right this is where things could just go crap if they don't get consumer adoption which you're going to be biased because you're researching rivian you're researching rivien stock you're going to be biased about the stock you're going to be biased about people's willingness to adopt and buy the car if another company comes around and beats this company substantially to where nobody's caring about iridium that's not good so if you're betting on the stock the most important thing that you have to ask yourself is do i believe people are going to buy the car do i believe that companies are going to buy an electric vehicle with 150 mile in range which probably realistically only has like 100 mile range because we all know how it goes they estimate a 150 if you get 100 you're lucky uh or maybe that's just tesla i don't know but okay fine let's go back to three percent for a moment or or uh and let's let's play it up let's say they get you know they they boom time okay and we get seven percent adoption across the board which should just be ridiculous you know what i'll leave the commercial one at three percent i'll go seven percent for the the consumers uh here we go four percent there we go 800 000 vehicles this is like baron's estimate okay 800 000 vehicles by 2025 and it was just there i think they were just guessing too okay 800 000 vehicles this could be a 356 dollar stock this 45 compounded annual rate of return so the biggest question as to whether or not you should invest in this company is obviously are you part of my stocks in psychology of money course so you can learn how to build your wealth and do fundamental analysis on companies and invest in companies yourself teach man or woman to fish feed them for life right check that out use that coupon code link down below to get a 41 off use that coupon code stock doc but outside of that for either stock investing real estate investing real estate agent sales or making youtube videos the big question is are you in this fundamentally or to trade it if you're in this to trade it there's going to be insane momentum we're in an eevee up cycle there is a lot of enthusiasm about this this is going to be at peak media when it ipos and it is going to taper after that generally the best time to buy is when peak media passes the stock falls it's no longer peak media then you buy and then you you ride fundamentally with the company right so if you're getting into it fundamentally i probably wouldn't buy it ipo unless you really think people are going to adopt these vehicles if you're getting it into getting into it to trade remember what coinbase did it went green for five minutes and then went straight down like like halved it was horrible it was a horrible ipo okay that's a cancerous ipo uh so not to make light of not to compare cancer to stocks but but anyway so do you believe that people are going to adopt this vehicle personally if i go with the worst case scenario i think by 2025 they they make 150 000 vehicles by 2025.
that'd be like a worst case scenario in my opinion let's go with that let's see what that looks like uh and that would probably be about one percent adoption across the board okay that's about 168 000 uh vehicles by 2025. let's say they get to 168 by 2025 again it's a loser at that point you're losing money investing in this company the growth rate just didn't sustain so really you probably have to be at about two percent across the board you got to get to about 300 000 vehicles uh by 2025 which keep in mind neo is doing like 10 000 cars a month they're doing 120 000 cars ish a year and they've been pumping for a while so uh you know personally at 80 bucks uh if if you believe they can get to this this production level great just know it's very difficult to scale i probably will not buy this fundamentally until the hype dies down and if i miss the boat don't really care uh because i don't have that much cash around it's not something that i want to invest in at peak hype uh and i also have no idea how good their manufacturing is going to be i have no idea how good their car is going to be have no they don't have a charging network yet why are you going to buy a rivian with no charging network when you have to use third-party chargers same reasons you're buying really a lucid right now although they have a partnership with electrify america rivien's got a long way to go i think it has hope and promise it's following a tesla model but hey you know becoming that number two electric vehicle manufacturer it's gonna be hard i wish rivie in the best i cannot invest in this i think if it explodes there's a good chance it hypes down and there'll be a better opportunity to buy this if i could buy this at 50 60 a share and uh and and then as long as i get to 168 000 vehicles by 2025 that's more reasonable to me so 58 bucks a share below i like until then i don't care if i miss out no problem so that's my video on rivien please subscribe share the video
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