저자: Kevin · 외국인
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AI 설비투자 부채 발행 급증과 프라이빗 크레딧 부실을 리스크로 지목하나, 오늘 반등은 SQQQ 숏커버링과 Fed 금리인하 기대에 따른 것이라 봄. 고용 둔화가 전환점이 될 수 있어 단기 지지선(QQQ 595~605) 확인과 Fed 인하 기대 유지를 조건으로 둠. 부채 의존도가 높은 AI 플레이는 회피하고, 10년 보유 가능한 종목을 선별 매수하는 중간 입장.
다듬은 글
Holy smokes, are we back and is it time to buy the dip? In this video, we're going to go through exactly whether or not we are back and whether or not it is time to buy the dip. Spoiler alert, every single dip this year has been a buy the dip opportunity. I kid you not. Liberation over here. And I remember, you see this double dip right here at the end of April.
I made videos going, "Folks, set trailing stops. Don't be dumping right now because we might be about to rocket ship up and trailing stops would be the perfect way because you'll never get stopped out if you're on this kind of run. And people at the time are like, Kevin, you're just making videos to try to hed your bets and cover both sides.
Like, no. Here's the evidence as to why we're saying this. Okay, that was then. You can watch the videos that are there. But take a look at this. Every single dip has been bought so far. So, the dip we had at the end of July, super minor. The dip we had in September, super minor. The October dip, super minor.
This November dip has been a little bit more frustrating because it's been about 3 weeks. You know, we're about 3 weeks of like down right before Halloween. We started, we hit all-time highs right before Halloween and then it's been down, down, down, down, down. Why has it been down? It's been fear because of the AI bubble.
It's been fear because of private credit and liquidity stress. And these are all reasonable fears. In fact, I have to say the thing that makes me the most nervous right now is what I'm seeing with AI spending in the bond market. In fact, take a look at this chart right here. This chart is disgusting.
So, this is a pretty busy chart cuz I wrote all over it. I apologize. Just ignore the text for a moment. Look at the little red lines. So, the red lines show you bond issuance. Okay? So, on the left side over here, I have 20. So, $20 billion of bond issuance. And you can see it's kind of rare, you know, after 2020 that you see these lines, but they pop up.
This arrow right here shows you the chat GPT moment. And you basically had no debt financing for over a year after that chat GPT moment. And then in 2024, like the second half of 2024, you started seeing, you know, a couple 20 billion deals, a 20 billion, maybe a 12 billion deal, a little bit at the beginning of 2025, right?
But now, what are we seeing over here? Every month, boom, boom, boom. And you total it up, it's actually $88 billion of debt financing on the right side. So, it's no s get more expensive for Meta and Oracle because people are like, man, dude, we're all of a sudden taking on a whole lot more debt than we used to.
Because any single one of these lines on the right is more debt financing for AI than we've had at any of these other lines on the left. Maybe with the exception of just that one right there, but basically you've got three of these sandwiched in a row on the right side. And it's really indicative of wo why all of a sudden are we taking on so much debt?
So I wrote a few notes here. I wrote, "Right now, we're at the phase of the economy where as long as debt issuance continues, we can keep this growth going. And that's good and it's bad. It's good because it means for right now, it doesn't necessarily mean we have to roll over. It just means like, hey, like that's a whole lot of debt." I mean, I think Bucko over here, literally Bucko Capital Bloke, writes, "David's saying the quiet part out loud.
This administration has made some catastrophically bad economic decisions and he's right. They backed themselves into a corner and cannot afford to go backwards on AI. This is in response to a David Saxs tweet which says, "According to today's Wall Street Journal, AI related investment accounts for half of GDP growth.
A reversal would risk recession. We cannot afford to go backwards." Full article. In other words, if as like if we stop seeing this AI spending, we could end up seeing a recession right here. A reversal could risk a recession. Okay, great. But if we're relying on AI for not going into a recession, then what we're really saying is we're relying on debt.
Because in the last 3 months, all of this AI boom has been funded by debt. And that's really scary because Ray Dallio put it really well. He did this like 10-minute segment with CNBC. I'm going to save you the time. Okay. Basically, the last like 30 seconds are all that matters. And he's like, "Well, you know, uh yeah, we're definitely in a bubble, but uh you know what it takes to uh make a bubble popup?
You got to prick it. And you know what pricks the bubble pop? People dashing for cash. I I can't do a Ray Dalio accent, but basically when people need cash, that's when the bubble pops. Okay. Well, what is that? Nobody knows. But what we know is what I wrote on this chart, which is that debt issuance is going extreme right now.
That's not necessarily to say it's going to stop, but we're starting to see that nervousness, right? We're seeing that nervousness with Blue Owl. Blue Owl is like freaking out. Look at what's happening with the private credit companies. Blue Owl backed the $30 billion Meta deal, which I thought was brilliant.
Like if you want exposure to the AI, you know, boom, without like with getting a good valuation, in my opinion, Meta's at a good valuation, and you don't as want as much of the debt risk, Meta is really interesting because they just financed a $30 billion deal where they have the opportunity to cancel their leases every four years and pay like a nominal early termination fee.
Guess who holds the bag? Blue Owl. Guess out of these private credit funds, which is performing the worst? Blue Owl. You know, it's down like almost half. It stock is almost h haveved in value. The only thing that's doing slightly worse than Blue Owl in the credit uh in the private credit space right now is well uh Grinder.
Grinder. I guess Grinder is not really in the private credit credit space, but what I should say is what is doing worse than Blue Owl is Grinder. Grinder has probably the smallest PP right now. little pee pe. And that's because their executives are literally getting margin called because they leveraged up their own personal shares.
And so their personal shares are getting revoked. They're getting seized and they're getting liquidated. So, who knows? Maybe there's an opportunity to buy the shrink on uh Grinder. But that's probably a topic for a different video. Maybe even a different channel that's like only meet Kevin or something.
But anyway, I mean private credit's obviously an issue, right? We see the private thericolor collapse is right here. We actually topped after thericolor uh collapse. First brands collapse is here. The crypto1010 liquidation is here. And then of course we have multiple other liquidations following that.
Now of course the CEOs and the executives at these companies, they don't want you to think that there are any kind of issues or cockroaches. Uh, in fact, you literally have the Blue Owl CEO saying, quote, "The point being like somehow by just talking about this enough, people have worked themselves into this imaginary world there's some where there's some bigger potential credit problem." That's what the CEO is saying.
And then, of course, you have a list of all these companies like collapsing in private credit. And I kind of think it's disingenuous because it's every single time people go, "Guys, everything is fine. You should know that everything is not fine. It's almost every single time. Like go into on this list, you have the uh Sa Hotel bankruptcy, right?
Well, here is the Sa hotel bankruptcy piece oday. And in it, they literally do, where was it? It was an all hands meeting. Anyway, they talk about doing this all hands-on deck meeting. Here it is. Uh employees were summoned to an all hands meeting. Managers expressed optimism that Sa would soon be on solid ground.
In other words, guys, everything is fine. Literally, literally, look at this. Look at this. There's nothing to worry about, says Nick Sa regional vice president said during the meeting. We just have to let everybody know that there are some problems, but don't worry, everything is fine. What happens 9 days later?
They go bankrupt every single time. It's like you you got a company going, "Guys, don't withdraw your money. Everything's okay." Bankrupt within a couple weeks after that. It's like the kiss of death. It's almost like saying everything is fine is the kiss of death itself. I don't know. That could be like causation without correlation.
But anyway, the point is everything is not fine. Like there actually are private credit issues. And yes, our GDP without artificial intelligence would probably be in a recession. And what is propping up artificial intelligence right now? Debt. Okay, now we're going to keep talking about that, but first I want to talk to you about this bounce that we had today.
Because the bounce today, I think, is heavily driven by an unwinding of a massive amount of shorts that we saw go into triple leveraged uh options and position taking on SEQs. So, the SEQs are the triple leveraged short for the QQQ index. and volumes or flows into the SQS on Thursday were massive. Absolutely massive.
Like $12 billion of volume into this that those buys had to get unwound today. And there was actually a really bullish signal this morning. Well, there were two really bullish signals this morning that suggested today could be a green day. The first really bullish signal was Jim Kramer going bearish.
9 hours ago, Jim Kramer said there's no reason futures should be higher. This is the curse of the bulls. And then I'm like, all right, that's a bullish catalyst uh right there. Bullish catalyst. This is why I call Jim Kramer Kim Kramer. It's like Karen Kramer. Kim Kramer cast out most bullish catalyst you could ask for.
But there was something else. Yes. And this is not a pitch. This is to teach you. In the alpha report this morning, I said, "Look, today is a test for the market." Okay, the test for the market today is can we hold 595 and can we get to 607? This these are copy and paste lines from the alpha report.
And I want you to see what was in today's alpha report. Look what I wrote. Thursday, Bitcoin drops before a bit a big dump. Friday, Bitcoin starts lower and the Q's head lower. Today, Bitcoin is $2,000 higher than where it was on Friday. Think about that. It was the first time we actually saw Bitcoin higher.
Usually Bitcoin was leading the market lower over the last few weeks, last three weeks almost certainly. Bitcoin's almost always been lower, lower, lower, lower, and then the Q's go lower. And so I literally wrote hopefully uh this is a test essentially for positivity for the Q's today. If I had any guess today, Bitcoin starting up 2K versus Friday is a great sign.
So fingers crossed the Q's rally and gets to 607. That would be a good sign of strength and reiterates by the dip. Folks, don't look at the Q's today and look at the numbers. Okay, let's look at the Q's and look at the numbers. You can't make this SH9T up, boys and girls. From 595, literally, literally from 595, you rocket ship.
And look at where we ended today. We ended right here. We had a high of 60668. Look at that. That's the 607 line right there. Look how close. It's not 100% perfect. That would be like crystal ball. But I have to say, Bitcoin gave us the signal. We pointed out the signal in the alpha report this morning and we went lineto line today.
Now, the question is, will it last? Well, whether or not it lasts has to do with, first of all, we got our short covering. Great. That's great. that could be out of the system now because we were oversold there for a while. But whether or not this lasts all comes down to the capacity for this chart to keep going.
Debt, boys and girls. And there's a second issue, too, and it has to do with jobs. We'll talk about that in just a moment. But bond issuance, look, we're at the phase where as long as debt issuance continues, AI growth can continue. That's my opinion. As long as we keep getting debt issuance, the debt uh the AI bubble can keep going.
Now, if labor stalls and debt issuance slows, private credit, liquidity crisis, whatever, we are gloriously and royally effed. Now, I want to be clear, we do not want a recession. Recessions are very painful. Many people lose their jobs. They are hell. But things would get cheaper. Stocks would get cheaper.
Houses maybe. It depends on where as to whether or not they would get cheaper. Mostly because houses in many parts of the country, not a foregone conclusion that they're going to get cheaper because we have so vastly underbuilt. The New York Times actually had a piece on this this morning that we are so underbuilding compared to historical pre208 averages.
We are still underbuilding today. You know, our poor guy Graham, he made this like podcast here where he laments how horrible it is to build homes in LA. And I watch that and I go, I know. And that is why I love buying real estate in some of these blue states because they're so with their building policies that all they do is drive housing prices up.
So if you want to hedge your investments and diversify into real estate by hedging whatever other investments you make, one of the best investments is literally investing in the stupidity of politicians. What is one of the best ways to invest in the stupidity of superleft democratic real estate policies?
Buying in real estate markets that are exposed to those sort of political thinkings. So the more liberal the policies, the more you want to buy real estate there because they're so incapable of building. They just drive housing prices up, which sucks for people who want to get in. But if you know the game, you just go whatever.
It's crazy. I'm not saying any of that is good. I'm just making an observation. I'm here to make observations about the market. That's my job. Okay? And again, I don't want So that's why I say like, yeah, in a recession, things get cheaper, but not necessarily because housing has been underbuilt and loans are pretty good relative to what you see in 200 uh what you saw in 2006 and 7.
That was pretty bad. Six and seven. Um, you know, loans are pretty stable. You know, there's some areas of the market, you know, FHA on the fringes and some of the the some of the overbuilt markets that are going to have problems. We know that. But, you know, generally, you don't want a recession because you're going to lose your job.
And so even if things get cheaper, you're just not gonna have the ability to finance new real estate or or stocks, which sucks, right? So therefore, this sudden concentration of debt, right? This is pretty sudden. This is a sudden concentration of debt makes me a little bit nervous. And it either means we have to spend more to keep the Ponzi going, so to speak, which is, you know, to stay ahead of China or whatever, or worse, oo, which you know, for a World of Warcraft reference is out of mana.
and for us means out of money. If companies are out of money, this is a really bad sign. Uh, and it doesn't mean the market's going to tank tomorrow, but it means we're we're like possibly on the last innings, which isn't great. Now, TS Lombard did a had a little piece on the supply session regarding labor, and we're going to touch on this briefly.
Uh, but something that I do want to touch on briefly as well is this. Like one of the things that I like about artificial intelligence uh and artificial intelligence companies is I want to look for companies that have low exposure to these crazy debts. That's why I like what Meta is doing. That's why I've hated Oracle.
We went back and looked at our analysis on Oracle and we saw that the analysis that we did on this channel on Oracle where I said way too much debt, stay away from Oracle was on on September 10th, my dad's birthday. Do you know what else September 10th was? Can you look at this chart and guess what September 10th was?
September 10th right here, folks. The top of that green line. I analyze Oracle. I go, "Guys, danger, danger, danger. Watch out. This is a bad fundamental play." You know, cuz you could analyze stocks in a few different ways. Fundamentals, momentum, right? And then you have to have a strategy associated with that.
A good fundamental buy, you could hold for 10 years. a momentum play, you can't hold for 10 years. You you swing in and out of that, right? But fundamentally, this was a bad sign. So, you just want to stay away from it. Now, 200 divided by 345 means this puppy right here is down 42%. Since we did an analysis on this channel makes sense.
Why? Because of debt. And this is why I say stay away from debt. Now, one of the things that we're doing because we're going to release our AI app this this week. Uh it'll be coming soon for December, but we're going to start selling our AI app, which is really exciting. The rein the househack.com or reinvest.co uh AI.
We're calling it the reinvest AI. Uh and we're our our vision is that we're going to sell 2-year subscriptions and lifetime subscriptions as a founding membership. And the benefit of that is it's twofolded. one people who sign up, they get in and they lock in a price where we think the product's going to be worth 200 bucks a month, you know, once the product is fully developed in about a year when we think the product will be fully developed.
And we'll keep adding updates obviously, but people who get in now, they get a lifetime subscription at one price, which will be a fraction of, you know, $200 a month, right? It'll be way less than that. Uh, you help us build the beta out, but what does that do? It lets us grow without debt. So you as a foundation member, maybe you know a few thousand of you join as foundation members, you get the benefit of having lifetime access to a net worth exploding uh hunter in real estate, our reinvest AI, right?
I mean it makes you competitive in real estate. We'll talk more about that separately. But what it does is it also injects capital into our company which then lets us reinvest into the artificial intelligence without debt. So it's win-win. People who join get rewarded with the foundation uh uh pricing in a year.
You're going to look back and be like, "Oh my gosh, it's so much more expensive and it's so much better, you know, a year from now, but I've locked in this lifetime access, right? It's not for sale right now. I'm not trying to pitch it." The reason I'm saying this is because I am putting my money and my company's money where our mouth is.
We don't want to finance our AI with debt. So, we want to sell a really good service and give people lifetime access and then use that capital, keep growing the product, which is already I think very good. Like day one, I think it's already going to be like, "Oh, this is kind of cool. You're like literally countrywide throughout the entire United States able to tell us if a deal is, you know, likely to be a deal in the eyes of Kevin or not, nationwide.
This is really cool. Now, point of that is staying away from debt because that debt bubble rolls over when jobs roll over. Okay, so we're going to talk about jobs. Let me just quickly disclaim this just so I don't get in trouble with the SEC. If you want to invest in Houseack or Reinvest.co, co. It's the same company.
Yeah, you still get a 5% yield, but make sure you read the offering circular by going to . I'm using this as an example. Oh, great. Michael Bur just tweeted. Nvidia emailed a memo to Wall Street sellside analyst to push back on my arguments. I stand by my analysis. Obviously, the full analysis does not fit in a tweet.
I will release my timeline. The first post, the heretics guide to AI is up now. It's a very light read. Basically, all right, he's going to double down on the depreciation play. Look, we have already addressed this with Michael Bur. Remember, I said this last week. I said, Michael Bur is not right yet.
Then the market sold off and people like, Kevin, it sounds like Michael Bur is right. No, Michael Bur is has a depreciation play that will take a while to play out. What you need for the Michael Bur depreciation play to play out is either the labor market to roll over, the debt cycle to stop, or both.
Then the depreciation play will play out. Okay, so Michael Bur is like a future problem. It's not a today problem, it's a future problem. So what else is part of this today problem? Well, the supply session and the Fed. So what do we have over here? Ordinarily, the Fed would be chomping at the bit to cut rates because of the Phillips curve, right?
because our payrolls are trending near zero. The problem is right now we're not at zero. In fact, if you look at where we sit right now on payrolls growth, I made this little chart right here. Our 3-month average on Bureau of Labor Statistics provided payrolls is 62,000. Our six-month average is 59,000 and our year-to- date average is 76,000.
So, we're not near zero. Once you hit like zero, six months later, it tends to get even worse. So once you go to zero for six months, it's bad. You're probably going into a recession, but we're not at zero yet. And so I kind of disputed a little bit about this article where they're like, "Oh no, zero is this is bad.
We're trending towards zero." We're not there yet. Now, of course, there are arguments that the stock market will fall, you know, the stock market following could cause participation to rise as early retirees come back. We already know that old news. There's also this idea that oh, you know, because the foreignb born labor supply is declining, native born is going up.
But this is apparently misleading because of the way they collect the data. Like they collect survey responses and if they're just getting fewer from one, they assume the other side is higher. It's like totally skewed. Just ignore it. It's a bunch of crap. Doesn't matter. So, the point of bringing this up is that right now it's unlikely we're going to see inflation like we saw in the 1967 low landing because back then we had this massive worker shortage.
Okay, so let's phrase this clearly to simplify this. What's bad for inflation is what happened in 1967 and 2021, which is having two openings per every one worker. Okay, right now we're the opposite. We have less than one opening per every one worker. So, this means we're not likely to see an inflation problem.
They don't mention that in this article, so I'm sort of like leaning on this article to say, look at this chart. Here's why it's wrong. We don't have an inflation problem right now. Yes, prices have gone up a lot, but we don't actually have an inflation problem. We have a bigger risk that the Fed is going to make a policy mistake by not cutting rates.
That's I think why markets are also enthusiastic because Waller said, "Hey, we're going to go for the cut." Mary Dailyaly today is like, "Hey, we're going to go for the cut." So, where does that leave us now? We have a lot of information here. We know what's going on with the AI debt bubble, the recession, stock performance and movements.
We know to stay away from the debt plays. Talked a little bit about real estate, talked a little bit about labor. How do we put all of this puzzle together? Here's how. First, we need a whole 605 on the cues. Okay, that's pretty important. Then no more private credit pain also very important. Any kind of shock here, shock would be very bad right now.
Okay, so hold 605 in the cues. No more credit pain. Great. After that, we really want strong retail sales. uh will likely get because people don't stop spending until they lose their jobs. And then we go into um the D10 Fed meeting with a 98% chance of a Fed cut. So far, we're climbing over 76% because Mary Dailyaly and Waller pushing for that rate cut, which is great.
This is you turn the odds of a Fed rate uh uh hold, which on Friday morning, if you watch my video Friday morning, I'm like, this is actually good. Like Waller's coming out trying to talk this up. Remember what we said last week, you need the Fed to talk up the chance of a rate cut. They have until this Friday to do that.
So between now and Friday, talk up the rate cut. Get us to 98%. That's bullish. Strong retail sales we'll likely get. That'll be bullish. No more private credit paying. That'll be good. Then if we can get through the next two months with few layoff announcements on top of what we've had, uh we might be able to get back to employment growth and we stick a soft landing with major bull catalysts.
Like think about the bull catalyst that we have. Uh deregulation, that's huge. Uh then we have the tax incentives from the big beautiful bill. That's huge. Then on top of that, we're uh expecting fiscal stimulus and rate cuts, right? Potentially stimulus checks, more rate cuts. This is all good. We're not we're hoping inflation stays tame so we can keep getting rate cuts.
We could stick this. So that's why I think there are opportunities to spend some money on those 10-year stocks to buy. And that's why I'm kind of in the middle right now. I'm like, I know we're shockprone. I'm selling where I don't like my exposure and I'm buying things I'm willing to hold even through a recession for the next 10 years and I'm trying to stay away from he debt heavy plays because debt is what's going to take this this economy down soon as that that debt bubble in AI stops.
I start getting nervous and that that debt chart this right here this should make you nervous too. Anyway, my take on tod.
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