저자: Kevin · 외국인
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하원이 MORE Act(대마 연방 규제 해제·전과 말소)를 통과시켰으나 상원 통과 가능성은 낮다고 진단. 대마 관련주는 최근 30일간 캐노피그로스 +34.8%, 오로라 +73%, 플래닛13 +55%로 급등했으나 2018년과 같은 과열 후 급락 패턴 우려. 대마 세금 부담(콜로라도 15%+15% 등)이 수익성을 제약. 2021년 1월 5일 조지아 상원 선거가 핵심 촉매이며, 장기적으로는 합법화 가능성이 높다고 봄. 플래닛13은 본인 투자 종목이나 고평가 시 분할 접근 권고.
다듬은 글
just today passed a big cannabis bill in this video i'm going to break down what the more act is what it does and what it means for the future of the cannabis industry i'm also going to talk about what i'm doing in terms of cannabis stocks towards the end of the video speaking of stocks though and since this is a stock video make sure to get your life insurance so you can be happy on the roller coaster of investing in u with at minimum getting twenty one dollars which is like a twenty one percent return all right folks so huge moves today and actually really over the last month in the cannabis stock sector let's go ahead and pull up some examples here we've got canopy growth that is up 34.8 in just the last 30 days folks if you put money into cannabis stocks over the last few months you are not regretting it whatsoever we've got aurora cannabis that is up 73 73 in 30 days these are insane returns then we've got planet 13 that is up 55 absolutely incredible explosion uh in in the cannabis sector and a lot of this a run-up came from the anticipation that cannabis stocks would do very well uh when when this bill passes well now the bill's passed the house of representatives what's going to happen now well that's leaving a lot of people scratching their heads and wondering is this going to be another 2018.
in fact in 2018 at right as anticipation was growing that democrats might be able to take control of the house again because republicans were in control of everything between when trump took office in the end of 2018 when the marijuana industry thought oh we might get democrats in power again this will be really good we should ramp up and prepare for the potential of legalizing marijuana there was so much hype in the in the marijuana space that look at what aurora cannabis stock did aurora cannabis literally went from being somewhere around a ten to twenty dollar stock to jumping up not to fifty dollars not to a hundred dollars but almost to a hundred and thirty dollars a share and i mean talk about this insane volatility that we have here in fact this last bump right here is right when the elections were held and democrats ended up winning the house but the problem is guess what happened in the two years thereafter well nothing good here in fact the stock went straight down now we have a lot of people currently believing that well why don't i just get into the marijuana stocks now whether it's here here or here and i'll ride the wave up i'll make a ton of money and then i'll sell and uh hey if it goes down who cares there's a big belief that that's something that could be done but let's talk about the industry longer term and what does this this more act actually do so the more act is the marijuana opportunity reinvestment and expungement act basically it just takes marijuana off the list of drugs that are considered federally controlled substances and it also removes convictions on people's records who've ever been arrested or basically have on their record any kind of marijuana-related crime and beyond decriminalizing marijuana basically making it illegal marijuana companies or cannabis distributors and businesses would actually be able to access banks which we kind of take that for granted like what like i could go into a bank and i open a business and get a business account yeah well cannabis industries can't do that or cannabis businesses they can't even get a loan which makes it harder to expand their businesses this is actually why a lot of cannabis companies are on the stock market they wait for the stock to run up and then they sell the share or they issue some new shares so they can raise capital and then invest in their business so really what they're doing is their equity financing by issuing more stocks rather than debt financing because it's so hard to get debt financing because banks generally don't finance to the cannabis industry that's not to say there aren't cannabis lenders out there but anytime you have a more niche product you're looking for interest rates go up and it's more expensive for businesses to operate speaking of more expensive the taxes on the mj are absolutely insane in fact let's go ahead and pull up a map here from the tax foundation and take a look at this map here this is a map showing us how high marijuana taxes are in the states that have marijuana taxes look at this in colorado you pay 15 as an excise tax plus another 15 sales tax you pay 7 in illinois as a sales tax which that that sounds pretty reasonable i feel like a lot of states have a similar sales tax to that but then you go over here to nevada or even vegas you've got a 15 excise tax plus a 10 sales tax 17 sales tax in oregon 37 in washington california has got a special list and they'll charge you per ounce on your flowers or your leaves or your plants like holy smokers we can actually say that in this smoke us it's actually applicable sorry but anyway 11 states have legalized uh the use and possession of marijuana and recreational marijuana but so far only nine of them actually have legal marketplaces and you can see the taxes are pretty high on a lot of you know these areas that actually allow this recreational marijuana it's a great way for these these states to make a lot of tax revenue but the problem with that is you know that leads to a having a lower margin business when your business has to spend a lot of money on taxes you don't take as much to the bottom line and this is really what we're seeing at the fundamentals of a lot of the cannabis companies is that really what's happening is you are seeing investors make a bet on cannabis stocks that cool if marijuana becomes legal these companies should do substantially better because taxes will come down they can get loans and they can get financing and the stocks are going to go to the moon makes sense right now it's speculating though because we have no idea what congress is going to do but wait a minute the house just passed this bill the more act that would be good right decriminalizing marijuana and five percent in taxes and we're done yes but the problem is the house passed it and the senate not interested in passing this bill pretty much at all in fact most republicans right now are making fun of the fact that democrats are voting on cats and cannabis they're calling it that's because the house of representatives also just passed a bill that makes it illegal to own lions or tigers this comes at the same time as there are rumors that donald trump wants to pardon the tiger king maybe he saw the documentary anyway if this more act becomes law i totally agree with people jumping into the marijuana stocks because they're probably going to do pretty dang well and the vp of government relationship relations over at canopy growth a marijuana company says that this marijuana bill is actually a great opportunity for helping get the economy out of the coveted crash because we'll be able to create millions of new jobs and while that sounds like a good idea unfortunately it's not going to convince republicans to go for it at least not yet we'll talk about when in just a moment but first think about some of these trends that are happening in 2016 60 percent of americans supported legalizing marijuana today 68 percent of americans according to gallup polls support legalizing marijuana so the more you have marijuana in the news about getting legalized in different states and more states are picking up these marijuana legalization programs and you have the house of representatives passing a bill like this saying hey let's just do a five percent tax and make it legal and make any criminal convictions just disappear for people who have had convictions this is a good day in fact the ceo of a true leave says that you know what this is actually a watershed moment it's so important because this is just going to drive more support in capitol hill for cannabis over time and it's just one more step closer to actually getting cannabis legalized now analysts at cohen research throw a little bit of cold water on this they say it's still going to be a while to get that pressure to a boiling point to get cannabis actually legalized but according to bloomberg it's entirely possible that if democrats win the senate in the january fifth election in georgia where two senate seats are up and those two senate seats could mean republicans or democrats control the senate it's entirely possible that cannabis could be a good play in the future if democrats win the senate chuck schumer after all a democrat who leads the senate had this to say draconian marijuana laws contribute to racial inequality and the house just took a historic step towards finally ending the federal prohibition on marijuana advancing criminal justice reform and helping level the economic playing field this is because they find that people with marijuana related crimes or convictions are more likely to be poorer or in poverty than those who are not so all right if you're interested in cannabis stock how do we play this well here's what we got to do first you got to mark your calendar for january 5th if democrats win both georgia seats marijuana could become legal however this path is not a slam dunk most bills other than budgetary reconciliation bills in congress in the senate still need 60 votes to pass which is three-fifths it's a three-fifths majority requirement not a simple majority which is just one more than half this means that if democrats have 50 seats in georgia or in the senate because they win georgia and kamala harris breaks a tie they still need to get nine republicans on board so far most republicans aren't having it and only five republican house members voted for the moore act on legalizing cannabis so this is really split along party lines the issue with this is joe biden is very focused right now not on cannabis but on three things he's very focused on infrastructure healthcare and stimulus and in order to get these things done next year to get us out of this pandemic or to claw us back to a normal economy it's unlikely that joe biden is going to push his leverage to get republicans to join on board with actually getting cannabis legislation passed i don't see him trying to push for that even if democrats take the senate seats in january now if you're a trader and you're looking for catalysts look january 5th is a catalyst that will be a catalyst if democrats take control now it's possible like the door's been unlocked like okay we have an opportunity here to pass this as we take control of the senate and maybe eventually get cannabis legalized so entirely possible we could see it legalize the next four years my guess though is that over the next two years even if democrats take control we are unlikely to see it actually get passed mostly because the priorities will be elsewhere infrastructure healthcare the pandemic and relief stimulus that's where the focus will probably be so now how do we play this all right so we got one catalyst on the calendar but how do we play this if we're a long-term investor well long-term 10 20 years there is little doubt in my mind that cannabis will be legal however some cannabis stocks that are rallying might be rallying a little bit too soon and then just because i want to mention it because i'm always trying to remain in the middle here in the event that donald trump wins in courts and joe biden doesn't become president then it's even less likely we're going to see marijuana bills actually get passed and marijuana become legal throughout the country however this passage in the house is going to be a big signal to individual states around the country that hey maybe y'all should loosen up and do your own marijuana builds in the meantime so we might see more states legalize marijuana over the next two years after two years in the second half of let's say a biden term even if democrats control both sides or especially if democrats control both sides yeah we could totally see cannabis get legalized within the next four to five years and so that's why over the next 10 years i've got little doubt that we're going to see it get legalized and so this is where we've really got to ask ourselves okay so if we're going to see marijuana get legalized over the next decade here should we consider throwing some money into marijuana stocks i've previously done a video on planet 13.
out of the marijuana stocks i have to agree this is uh this is probably one of my favorites they've really got the culture and brand value down i have my concerns though i'm not certain how they're going to replicate their business model they're going to try they're going to launch a california store planet 13 is this is an over-the-counter stock so you'd have to use like fidelity or maybe like schwab or jp morgan you invest with chase or fidelity to actually buy the stock i don't think you'll be able to get it on robinhood or m1 finance but anyway this company planet 13 marijuana superstore in las vegas they plan to expand to california if they can successfully transfer that sort of loyalty they're getting in california this will be a very interesting company because this will be a model that can really replicate throughout other parts of the united states there's some real potential at the company but i do have my concerns about their their ability to replicate sometimes you get that where they just have one location and that one location does so well but you open up a different one and then that one sucks and they can just never get that business model replicated that makes this stock a little bit risky and then financially i just encourage you just type into youtube meet kevin planet 13 and you can see my breakdown on it in that video what i will say is i said look i because of the the hype that's coming to this i i know i'm gonna make money on it i'm going to invest and i ended up investing 14 000 into planet 13.
now it's done well it's doubled in value since i invested probably more than doubled in value since i invested but then we've got to ask ourselves wait a minute kevin does it make sense to throw more money into cannabis companies that are up 30 to 76 percent in just the last 30 days when the big catalyst of hype about this bill getting passed in the house but not going anywhere in the senate is going to start fading you know the traders are going to slowly move away from this and go to the next exciting opportunity in this case it potentially makes sense not to buy it potentially makes sense to just wait and i think this is where you're going to have to analyze your personality and decide what to do if you have a personality that you think you know what i just want to get into the marijuana play i don't care if it goes down in the future i'll just buy more then maybe it's not a horrible idea to open yourself up to some exposure to marijuana companies maybe one to three percent of your portfolio i don't know that i would have cannabis as a sector be more than three percent of my portfolio maybe i'd even spread that out into maybe one to three different stocks but you know if i had that long-term mentality does it make sense to maybe buy some planet 13 maybe i don't think in the long run you could really go wrong unless planet 13 fails to replicate their business model or we just never see that legalization but right now i think the writing is on the wall that that legalization is coming and quite frankly if it's not planet 13 then maybe diversify into some other marijuana companies and hey then you can open up the door to having maybe a portfolio of two or three stocks that can grow in the future if you're looking for that more short-term volatility pay attention to a potential decline here in january leading up to the catalyst january 5th and it's possible that there won't be a decline between now and then it's not that far away we're a month and one day away from january 5th already which is crazy to say so it's possible these could just continue to go vertical almost until then and if the house takes control it would be not surprising at all to see them continue to go vertical after that so maybe there is an opportunity to jump in uh you know sooner rather than later but remember i don't think anything's actually going to happen for the first two years of a potential biden administration i could be wrong on that but that's my guess reading into what congress's priorities are now and knowing how anti-cannabis republicans are this means it's possible that if you don't want to buy cannabis stocks now you might have to wait until sometime next year and then buy on a dip cannabis is going to be very volatile anytime you get a stock that is so dedicated or so reliant i should say on the government passing a bill you're going to see some crazy ups and downs which those ups and downs could be some sweet opportunities but these are some companies to look at aurora cannabis planet 13 13 is the only one i'm invested in would i maybe on monday throw a little bit more money in maybe i don't know maybe i'll just totally forget about it and i won't uh but again the only reason to do it is because you don't want to wait for a dip and you're in it for the long run just be careful though as with anything these are potentially speculative investments here we're betting on congress passing this and if they don't a lot of things could go wrong well in the meantime and life insurance links down below bye you
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