저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Kevin은 레모네이드(LMND)가 Motley Fool 추천으로 급등했으나 단기 과열 위험이 있어 추가 매수는 기다리고, 장기적으로는 보유 가치가 있다고 봄. 쉬프트(SFT)는 중고차 시장 파괴 잠재력을 이유로 매수 관점, 니올(NIO)·샤오펑(XPEV)은 전고점 이후 하락 시 분할매수 권장하나 테슬라보다 고평가라 신중 필요. 니콜라(NKLA)는 공매도 비중이 높아 숏은 위험하다고 경고. 전반적으로 장기 성장 관점의 발언이 주를 이룸.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here with updates on five stocks that you should either buy sell or just own and hold let's go ahead and start with lemonade then we'll hit shift technologies jump into neo and x-bang we'll give updates on these and then we'll make a note about nikola and well buying short positions or buying puts or potentially just shorting the stock and talk about what the heck is going on over there but right now let's start with lemonade and worth all the way up to sixteen hundred dollars so it's a guaranteed minimum twenty one percent rate of return while the promotion is going on which speaking of life insurance lemonade will be selling life insurance at some point in the future so uh that'll be interesting to see when that product gets added but for right now you could use the other life insurance company linked down below lemonade the insurance company shot up 20.23 today and another 1.43 in after hours this is a company that i have over 210 000 invested in and this 20 well it makes for a nice day but what caused this run-up why all of a sudden would lemonade go up 20 we've been buying this thing since it was under 60 dollars bought it at 59 at 55 bought it a lot at 48 and 49 i've been talking about the stock for probably four months on this channel now i've been mentioning it in stimulus videos i've been throwing it in the course almost every single day i mentioned oh lemonade it's under our target buy some more buy some more every day in our live streams uh which obviously you can get if you're in any of the courses linked down below but folks lemonade why would it just move 20 so what the heck happened well here you go at 1 p.m eastern time lemonade was trading for around 74.55 cents which was great because i've been recommending buying this company under 65 ideally under 60.
that's been a good price target for me as an entry uh well then all of a sudden it ran up within a matter of about 15 to 20 minutes 20 and that made us all kind of scratch our heads what the heck is happening well we found out exactly what's happening lemonade was pitched by the motley fools stock advisor and what i figured we could do because i've got their subscription i figured i'd go through and do a quick little peek and see what they say about it and where we can add some commentary but then i want to give you a warning on lemonade so they mentioned that lemonade has this proprietary technology basically lemonade is an insurance company that tries to use algorithms to quote you for insurance and also to deal with your claims the cool thing with this is they will actually try to use all of these thousands of signals they can collect on you to like the micropoint of you literally opening up the terms of service or not like that is somehow related to a signal as to your likelihood of putting in an insurance claim and they say that collecting hundreds maybe even thousands of signals like this lets them price insurance more competitively and lets them assess risk more competitively who knows because they use something called reinsurance where they basically take a portion of their portfolio and reinsure it by getting insurance on their insurance basically it wouldn't surprise me if lemonade kind of just gives the what they deem to be the riskier part of the pool to the reinsurance company although i don't know if it could work that way either way they do use algorithmic technology like crazy to not only make the sign up process really easy in fact if you've never done it before go to lemonade.com try to sign up for insurance chat with the bot and you'll see how easy it is they only operate in about 21 states though so you don't have access everywhere might be a little bit more by now but anyway lemonade is really that that millennial buy that millennial generation is eating up lemonade and so motley fool says hey look you know they've got a fresh approach to a stale industry this is true they call them a mid cap uh you know 4 billion valuation honestly nowadays it's it's pretty small it feels like small cap to me but uh fine old school technical fine but uh you know they say look you know old school days it took forever to fill out an insurance application uh then big insurance companies are like hey we can get you a better quote in 15 minutes but motley fool says hey no worries now you only need two minutes to get an insurance quote and and that's really exciting to millennials who don't want to get on the phone and don't want to waste their time quite frankly i resonate with this like this appeals to me i like this and this is why i like lemonade honestly i can't wait until they get into rental property insurance which they don't do right now which is really annoying because i would gladly swipe up to have an insurance policy basically it would be great for all my rentals it's just a hassle emailing age of this it is a hassle so i agree with him on that uh you know that motley fool accurately mentions here that the company keeps 25 of the premiums they get and then they use reinsurance for the other 75 uh now you know they actually end up calling this a risk i've seen other companies like arc invest calls relying on reinsurance a risk factor as well i don't personally see that as a big re you know a big risk factor for lemonade mostly because the reinsurance market is pretty competitive it's usually you're pretty capable of getting insurance on insurance so to speak uh but uh you know and then anything beyond 25 in profits that lemonade gets they actually say they're going to donate that so that way in low years they're not donating they're you know keeping more of their revenue balancing that out with high years where they've got more revenue and donating the extra so really what they're trying to do is say we just want to be consistently profitable every single year based on the amount of users we have and all we care about is growing our user base we just want more people in the funnel that's all they care about and then that way they can try to predict okay cool well you know if we're a little short this year we'll donate less next year or whatever but we'll always have the same profitability per customer that means we can spend x dollars on advertising and hey if we spend a dollar and get two dollars back let's just keep doing that it's a little system they've got actually honestly i think lemonade's a great company i mean obviously i think that if i got 200 grand and i think it's like 210k i always like to be transparent with you and i'm going to tell you whether i'm going to keep buying or sell or what i'm going to do some of you can probably already predict what i'm going to say in terms of when i suggest selling but anyway uh okay good blah blah blah something that motley fool didn't talk about is to me lemonade while it's a great company i i worry it's going to be slow uh and i mean that like lemonade relies on your typical millennial coming in getting uh you know renters insurance they even added pet health insurance recently and then relies on that customer being so infatuated with the company that in the future they'll go to the other verticals they'll get the life insurance they'll get the rental property insurance in the future in the future maybe they'll even go into car insurance and they'll just get everything through lemonade lemonade's like the new geico which geico was a big bet for warren buffett and paid off really well for warren buffett so that's lemonade's strategy the issue with that is it takes time for millennials to actually grow their assets to have more properties and products or whatever that they want to insure you know sure you could start with renters and pets but you're dealing with an audience that that doesn't have as many assets to insure right that's the big thing you don't have as many cars you don't have as many properties and they don't even do rental property at the moment so you can see there are huge growth potentials for lemonade uh but obviously they've got to grow into that and i write that this is this is kind of a slow process but it's good because once the market realizes the potential of lemonade having all of this revenue build up small now and then it'll be explosive in like 10 years that to me is why this is a buy see i kind of think of lemonade like imagine you're you're lighting a fire at a you know a campfire or something like that and and you're going to light the fire and everybody else is like walking around looking at your fire and and you know you've got your fire kindled like your your fire is starting to grow it's brewing and you're slowly adding to it and you're blowing into the fire a little bit more and everybody else is like man kevin doesn't know how to light a fire he got nothing man the fire is lemonade in my opinion and then you know everybody's kind of off doing their own thing chasing you know the nano dimensions and the neos which talk about that in a moment i'm not saying that's bad okay i like these companies uh but but they're distracted by you know the things that are hot to talk about right now and uh you know before you know it five years go by and it's like i got this raging fire and people like dang where did that come from that's my pov with lemonade is one day the market will realize oh my gosh they got like you know x percent of all millennials having insurance with them geico and mercury and all these other insurance companies can't even compete anymore because people don't want to leave lemonade that that i think is where lemonade's going that's the long-run growth potential for for lemonade so to me you know i bought this stock on ipo day and i rarely buy stocks on ipo day i bought it for like 54 on ipo day and then i bought more as it fluctuated between uh you know 49 and uh i think the highest i bought it for was like 71 i threw in an order on m1 finance for like 71 bucks or something like that that was high but most of my cost basis is right around 58 for the stock 55 to 58 so i really love this stock great great company and i'm not going to go through all of the full article here although i mean that was honestly kind of the end of it anyway they did they needed to go super in depth on lemonade here that's all right they kind of just said buy lemonade and put a nice story on it but so when the question comes up why is lemonade up 20 today it's because of of this article basically they got a huge shout out they're kind of a small company and that buying volume led to led to the prices going up i thought it was also interesting that i got the email at 10 38 a.m pacific time and they you know somebody started buying 30 minutes before that but i i guess you can't blame them for that anywho that's what happened at lemonade today now what's my warning for this i would not be surprised if you get a lot of traders that sign up for these stock alerts they buy in to ride the momentum and then they're going to start selling and that's not to say there's anything wrong with traders there are a lot of people who are in my course that purposefully try to trade off some of the things that i'm doing which is fine like hey look if you can make money off it all for it do it my pov and my warning for for lemonade is if you're in lemonade right now uh know that there's a possibility we're gonna go back into the low 70s maybe even high 60s i think this motley fool move will wear off we've got some shareholder dilution coming up in january it's quite possible the stock could run and when it runs for real and we actually get hedge funds involved i wouldn't be surprised if this stock ends up you know two to three xing over the longer term the next five years i think five year goal wouldn't shock me at all to see this two to honestly even 4x because they're going to get that market share and all of a sudden the market's going to go oh my gosh they got all the millennials and now they're in 50 states and look at all the products they have once they open up the door to rental property investors too like millennial investors i think they got a lot of upside i really like lemonade i'm looking into another one too called root but i don't have anything for us on that one yet i'll be doing some research on that one this weekend okay so uh next up i want to just make a note about shift so shift is the used car company which sounds like not great because it's like used cars who wants to use cars they the shift is revolutionary their customer service experience is great they are going to compete with carvana they are going to eat market share in every market that carvana works in these companies carvana and shift are going to take much much more market share away from traditional dealers and carmax and and the companies that aren't really selling online i mean just the fact that you can uh sign up to buy a used car and somebody will drive the car to your house and you can test drive it from your house and buy it from there it's incredible how streamlined and simple they make the process now carvana has blown up i mean they sell for like four and a half times their future revenue in 2021.
shift on the other hand only sells for like 1.25 to 1.3 times their future revenue so shift has in my opinion this incredible potential to over time you know give it give it a few years not tomorrow but it has this incredible potential of really 5xing soon like once they prove themselves for for a few quarters and we actually see that consistent growth i think shift has some really good potential shift i've got about 125k in not as much as lemonade because i really just started buying shift so if i see some more weakness and i can keep getting shift in like that eight dollar range especially if i go sub eight dollars i'm just gonna keep buying shift small company though very small so you're definitely subject to a lot of volatility over at shift but take a look at this okay so this is the carvana ceo he's going to talk to us a little bit about profit per car and what has happened by selling cars online what kind of transition we've seen and what we're expecting going forward just listen to him talk for a moment and then we'll we'll add commentary sure well i mean yeah we went public in 2017 um you know in 2016 we made about a thousand dollars in gross profit per unit per car and then as you said in the intro in the third quarter we made about four thousand dollars in gross profit per car so we've moved that up uh very quickly over the last several years we've done that by vertically integrating by making our customers experiences more simple uh by buying more cars from customers we can cut out costs out of the equation that way by giving customers a great financing experience so we've really kind of built out in many different ways to continue to deliver that great experience for our customers while improving our modernization as well huge i mean that's huge they forexed their profit per used car folks this is the future of buying used cars and quite frankly if we're going to go into what i think is potentially a frugal decade people should be buying used cars uh unless of course they're spending money on teslas which is fine too because we own tesla i don't recommend buying teslas uh i have tesla two teslas but it's a waste of money you're better off putting the money into tesla stock in the meantime buy a used car off shift i really like this when i heard this it reiterated my belief about shift that they are in an industry that is primed for disruption i like that i'm not gonna go huge with my portfolio on shift but they're definitely going to be somewhere around three to four percent of my overall portfolio who knows we'll see if as everything else kind of gets more expensive like especially if lemonade stays around these prices i might lower my exposure to lemonade and increase my exposure to shift so for me shift the warning on shift is expect a lot of volatility it's a tiny freaking stock one dude dumping shares like somebody making youtube videos just going through don't know it could make a difference okay not me i'm not talking about me either no i will not sell this sock i'm holding the stock and you all know i do as i say okay next let's talk about neil and xp so neil and xfinger a little funny i really like these companies i think they're great companies uh obviously we've we've had a lot of concern with the uh house bill that was passed it's surpassed by the senate we're expecting president trump to sign it i'm not going to go into that again but basically that there's there's that fear that oh my gosh could these companies be delisted i made a video on this yesterday if you want to know more about it watch that video on neo and x-ping yesterday and maybe chinese d-listing but more importantly what i think is really kind of funny to look at and then i want to talk to you about my strategy and warning here is take a look at this this is a video that i posted on november 23rd and i talked about the ev stock bubble big crash or big opportunity basically what's coming right uh and i talked in this video about how i think that price is going up at neo and xping is unsustainable and they will correct when they correct i'm going to start buying into them as they fall and once they get to my threshold as to where i think they're like a good like a great deal i'm going to buy them more heavily okay well that was posted on november 23rd take a look at neo stock november 23rd neostock hits peak ever since then it's been down okay maybe i got lucky on that one but let's just say the warning signs were all over the place that was going to happen so what does that mean does this mean that neo was a bad company in x-ping i'm going to lump these together okay are these bad companies no but they are expensive when neo and x-ping were selling for 20-30 in that range both of them were about five to six times as expensive as tesla that's a lot that means for every dollar of earning you're paying substantially more to get into neo and x-ping to me that's sometimes okay especially when you're starting with a really really small company but my recommendation right now is if we keep getting these negative five percent days feel comfortable nibbling in a little bit but don't go heavy on these companies yet instead my pov is i want to make sure i'm picking these up when they're below my heavy buy targets i'm going to pull up my heavy buy targets here which i post these as alerts for for my uh money and psychology money course members and so my alerts uh and my buy targets for neo and x ping is i want to buy neo more heavily under 40 ideally under 35 so i'm gonna be a little hesitant in that range but under those price targets i'm okay adding to it it's still more expensive than tesla though so honestly if i'm putting a thousand dollars into neo i probably would want to set aside four 000 bucks for tesla and throw that money into tesla but not yet on tesla i'm probably going to wait until after the s p uh inclusion like sell-off that i expect is coming with all these traders who just jumped in on the tesla inclusion a bandwagon which not trying to be offensive to traders here like there's money to be made there as well okay but i think there's going to be a lot of selling pressure uh we'll we'll see we'll see but i think we might be a little uh overbought and then when the index funds start buying and the traders start selling to the index fund uh it wouldn't surprise me if there were more traders than the index funds really needed uh for x-bang i really i really want to see them under 35 if i could get them under 30 much more juicy these stocks are small uh there's gonna be volatility with these guys as well but uh you know keep this in mind i mean they're certainly they're much larger than uh than like lemonade remember lemonade has a market cap around four billion uh yeah four billion dollars you've got shift technologies has a market cap of like 400 million neo has a market cap of 61 billion dollars right now it's it's it's pricey uh but it's also you know i mean vehicles you've got uh you've got a lot of uh proprietary technology here you've got great brand recognition you got high profit vehicles too which is good and not saying that the company right now is making a lot of profit but when they get to scale you know they're at that low profitability phase but when they get to scale there's gonna be a lot more profit per vehicle uh which will also help them with price competitiveness in the price war against china i'm sorry against tesla in china so a neo and x ping what's the strategy well in my opinion you see a five to seven percent decline buy a little bit you want to buy a little bit so that you don't panic and sell because when you buy you don't sell yeah it could be it could be 500 bucks it could be a hundred dollars just buy a little bit so that way you feel like oh sweet i keep getting achiever i keep getting cheaper just don't blow everything because when these things hit my price targets no guarantees they will but if neo gets under 35 again you want to be the guy that's able to go in there on a minus 10 day and go i'm shopping baby i'm going in like it's black friday we got black friday sale uh that's my pov with neon xbox so if if you bought and and you're down on the or x paying don't panic hold these things it's like obviously no guarantees i'm just some dude on youtube but uh i have no qualms about these right now for the long haul and i will nibble into them on these red falls and i will add more to them if they fall under my price targets okay so uh that's uh now we've talked about uh lemonade shift neo and x-ping let's quickly talk about nicola so on nicola i want to know that 40 of the shares at nicola are short the market likes shorting nicola okay so what this means is you have to be very careful if you're thinking oh my gosh nickel is definitely going to go down i'm going to short it now you got to be careful about that because if everybody thinks it's going to go down well then the profit is already priced in and then it doesn't fall as much and then people like it's not falling as much and then they sell out and the stock actually goes up it's this is the market it's it's like playing you know chess it's it's crazy it's trying to always think three steps ahead of you so keep that in mind when you're doing these trades it's fine if you want to trade but me my my opinion is the reward on shorting something like nicola low unless they go bk you know that's i think when you're going to get your payoff but i think they're going to you know they've got enough investors in there to where uh they're in that hydrogen space which not a lot of competition then they'll they'll stick around and they'll keep limping around while everybody blows by them and who knows maybe one day they'll be something but folks keep this in mind the reason people made big money shorting at the beginning of the pandemic is because very few people thought the market would actually crash substantially it was every single day you had people like larry kudlow and and hedge fund managers on cnbc going this is nothing don't worry we're going to control this we only have one case oh don't worry we only have 10 cases oh we have a very resilient economy everything's fine everything's fine until it wasn't that's how people made a lot of money shorting because there were so few other people shorting buying puts or whatever so uh when everyone hates a stock like nicola gotta be careful don't don't short it this is why i didn't say too short it in in the last video i made on nikolai explained what's going on i explained this big lock up coming up but the market can sometimes do the opposite of what you're expecting because these things get priced in so those are just things to keep in mind we get a lot of the selling pressure a lot of the profit gets squeezed out by expectations this is why you have companies like hindenburg a short seller who basically will take a company nobody's paying attention to and do a hit piece on them and all of a sudden out of nowhere this hit piece comes out and everybody's like oh my gosh this company sucks panic so so so meanwhile hindenburg's already shorted the company they're like thank you there's you know 30 plus percent they cash out and they move on to the next company to screw over which in fairness you need companies like this to hold other other businesses accountable right like what hindenburg did for nicola honestly probably did the world a favor so you can't bag on the short sellers for for doing their piece in the market but for me my warning is just stay away you know you're swimming against the tide when you're shorting a company so keep that in mind you short a company you were swimming against the tide you are betting against jay powell j pal the dude with the money printer does not like being bet against he can just type into his spreadsheet a few more zeros and keep printing for a very long time alright folks so there's my update on lemonade uh oh wait wait i gotta tell you on lemonade let me just make this very clear because i don't think i said this yet with lemonade i'm not gonna i'm not gonna add to lemonade at this price we're 80 dollars no no no no no wait for this thing to settle down can it balloon up can a hedge fund come in tomorrow and blow this thing up yes so if you're gonna fomo you could you could buy i'm not going to i will wait to add to lemon i just bought lemonade two days ago too i bought some more lemonade uh because it had sold off down to like 63 dollars a share and i'm like oh well here's a little bit of a dip let's buy some of that so you know lucky on that timing but i will wait for this motley fool enthusiasm to wear off a little bit and honestly i think they could have gone a little bit more detailed into their analysis they kind of just said here's a company that looks pretty good and uh we're buying it wow powerful must be powerful or feel good to be a fool i don't know i like that i'm not trying to bag on them just is what it is so uh okay so lemonade wait to buy neo and xping buy them when they're five percent down with little nibbles until we get to those price targets then we've got shift they're just a buy uh honestly under 15 shift is a buy uh i i won't buy it if it's up like 10 or 20 of the day but i will buy it if if it's down like four percent like it was today or yesterday i think it was i bought some uh neon x-ping wait nicola just stay away from that one okay cool
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