저자: TomLee·RaoulPal—소속은제목·설명란에명시되지않아TomLee·RaoulPal본인소속은미상처리 · 외국인
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이더리움은 중립성·탈중앙화, 토큰화, 가장 긴 Lindy 효과(검증된 기간)를 근거로 시총 1~5조 달러까지 성장 가능하다고 주장. 현재 약 2,000억 달러 수준인 이더리움 대비 금·주식·부동산 등 수백조 달러 자산의 토큰화 잠재력을 강조. 이더리움 메인넷의 스테이블코인 1,550억 달러 이상, 토큰화 실물자산 75%+ 점유를 근거로 제시. 비트코인은 채택 증가로 쉬운 장기 베팅 대상으로 평가. 가격이 펀더멘털을 따라가지 못하는 시기를 '크립토 스프링'으로 규정하며 바닥 이후 재시험 과정을 거칠 것이라 언급. 솔라나 등 신규 레이어1도 효율성 측면에서 긍정 평가.
다듬은 글
This could be the start of one of the biggest crypto expansions we've ever seen , where Ethereum will potentially grow from a network value of a few hundred billion dollars to a multi-trillion dollar asset as the world's financial system transitions to blockchain. Tom Lee and Raul Pal are now making a strong bullish case for Ethereum, Bitcoin, and next- generation layer 1 blockchains.
Tom Lee says Ethereum is fundamentally strengthening, even despite the price lag, calling the current situation a sign of crypto spring. More importantly, he claims that Ethereum could be worth one trillion, two trillion, or even five trillion dollars within the next few years as tokenization, financial digitization, and blockchain adoption accelerate.
But Raoul Pal develops this thesis even further. He says Bitcoin remains one of the easiest cryptocurrencies to bet on as adoption continues to grow, while Ethereum has the strongest Lindy effect among smart contract platforms. He also argues that first- level blockchains could become the infrastructure layer of the internet of the future, combining AI, finance , applications, and global economic coordination.
In this video, I will break down Tom Lee and Raul Pal's most optimistic arguments for Ethereum, Bitcoin, and first-level blockchains. Why Lee believes Ethereum could eventually reach a network value of $5 trillion, and why Pal believes these networks could become the infrastru. I think there are three components to the Ethereum story.
First, I think that in the future people will really value neutrality and decentralization. For example, they would say it's a virtue because they don't need a blockchain that only has seven nodes, or it only works in one country, or, you know, there are two individuals or two entities that own 30% of the network, you know?
Because it is not a decentralized protocol. And especially, you know, especially when machines interact with machines, everyone is going to want to have a say in the finality of transactions, and that's where blockchains are important because you don't want a company to control that. The second is tokenization.
I mean, that's not even a question. Everything that happens in the financial system today can be implemented more efficiently on the blockchain. But all customers still use traditional financial rails, right? So, you know, it's not going to happen overnight. But I think the third story that is really bullish for Ethereum is that it has been around for so long, and the Lindy effect is a strong argument that it is time for the industry to come together to complement what the foundation is doing.
And I think it's the only blockchain that's mature enough and collaborative enough to be capable of doing that. You know, that didn't happen with Bitcoin, you know? And no other blockchain has been around for more than 11 years, so that's it. Furthermore, Ethereum remains the most proven, safest, and most compliant of all.
100% uptime, yes. It's an ongoing discussion about other networks not being 100% up and I'm sure many institutions aren't willing to work with them unless they have 100% uptime. So I think this is another sign of crypto spring, because the fundamentals are actually much stronger and the growth potential looks much greater.
Tom Lee's first main argument is that the story of Ethereum becomes much broader than just observing the price chart. He says there are three main reasons for optimism, starting with what will become increasingly important as blockchain spreads: neutrality and decentralization. Lee argues that as machines, financial institutions, and eventually AI agents interact with blockchains, people will need a network where no small group can control the finality of transactions.
This gives Ethereum a powerful advantage because its value proposition is built on working as a neutral infrastructure, rather than a platform controlled by a single corporation. The second element is tokenization. Lee believes that financial assets could eventually move to blockchain rails as the technology makes markets more efficient, programmable, and composable.
And the latest data lends even more weight to this argument. According to Ethereum Institutional, Ethereum currently hosts over 75% of tokenized real assets and over 60% of the global stablecoin supply. Next comes Ethereum's maturity. Lee points to its long history of operation and established ecosystem as another reason why institutions can trust it.
In July 2026, the Ethereum Foundation also published guidelines, clearly presenting Ethereum as a neutral infrastructure for governments and institutions. So, even if the price has not yet fully reflected these changes, Lee's main message is clear. Ethereum's fundamental economics may be strengthening before the market fully realizes it.
And that brings us to the part of his thesis where the potential upside becomes much harder to ignore. First of all, this potential is quite large, in a sense, because... look at the cost of the network. You know, Bitcoin is worth over a trillion. You know, almost 2 trillion. And Ethereum—about 200 billion.
Okay, and these are the two largest cryptocurrencies. So let's say together they're worth less than two trillion. Gold is 22 trillion. The stock market is over a hundred trillion. You know, real estate is about 300 trillion. But here's the thing. To make all these other assets compatible, monetize them, and digitize them, you'll have to run them on Ethereum and other blockchains.
And if Ethereum is worth 300 billion, then it is significantly undervalued. So, in my opinion, should Ethereum have a market cap of a trillion, two or five trillion dollars? Yes, I can easily imagine this potential is huge . Yes. Yes, I'm pretty confident in the price increase. Tom Lee's thesis on Ethereum becomes even more radical when he looks at the size of the markets that could eventually migrate to blockchain.
In his opinion, Ethereum's current valuation does not fully reflect what will happen if tokenization becomes a significant part of global finance. Lee gives a simple comparison. Bitcoin and Ethereum together represent less than $2 trillion in market value, while gold, stocks, and real estate are collectively worth hundreds of trillions of dollars.
He is not claiming that all these assets will suddenly disappear from traditional markets. The point is that increasingly large parts of them can become digital and connected through blockchain infrastructure. This is where Ethereum's potential becomes huge. Ethereum institutional data currently shows over $155 billion in stablecoins on its mainnet, while the ecosystem has become a major platform for tokenized real assets.
This also explains why Lee believes that a market cap of Ethereum of $1, $2, or even $5 trillion is possible within the next few years. His $ 5 trillion prediction was reported again in July 2026 , confirming that it wasn't just an old prediction being discussed again. Importantly, Lee sees Ethereum’s valuation rising in parallel with the volume of economic activity that depends on its infrastructure.
And if tokenization accelerates, the gap between today's Ethereum and Lee's long-term vision could become much more dramatic. . You know, for me this is another sign of a " crypto spring," because the fundamentals are actually much stronger, and the growth potential looks much greater, Mhm. but the price is lagging behind, right?
How important is price to you? Uh, I mean, do you even look at her or what? Yes, I think it's important. Because the price...that's the thing. For everything that happens in the economy, price matters . For example, if you own a house, no one wants the price of it to drop. Right. Nobody will say, "Hey, I'm happy, I love my house even though it loses 10% of its value every year ." Or, let's say, when buying food, you don't want it to become more expensive.
So, price matters in everything we do. And for an asset, especially a fundamentally developing asset, you don't want the price to fall. So price is important. I mean, Ethereum shouldn't get cheaper. But, then again, that's what happens during the "crypto spring ," right? If you look at previous bear market lows, the price recovery is not vertical.
You know, there's a lot of retesting and checking of technical levels until, essentially, " escape velocity" is reached. There is one part of Tom Lee's argument that sounds less optimistic at first, but it may actually be one of the most important points of his thesis. Ethereum's fundamentals may be improving as the price tries to catch up.
Lee openly admits that price matters. If an asset consistently loses value, investors eventually become less confident, which can affect implementation and capital formation. He also says that Ethereum should not fall if its fundamentals are strengthening. But he notes that such price dynamics can occur in the early stages of a new crypto cycle.
According to Lee, previous bear market lows did not result in an immediate vertical recovery. The market went through retests and periods where price had to establish new technical levels before finally reaching what he calls " escape velocity." This distinction is important because Ethereum’s network activity continues to grow even when price performance looks disappointing.
Ethereum institutional data shows that the network has become the primary settlement layer for stablecoins and tokenized assets, with over $155 billion in stablecoins currently held on Ethereum. So Lee's argument is not that investors should ignore price. The price may temporarily break away from the underlying growth of the network.
If this gap eventually narrows, the move could be much more powerful than just a recovery from a correction. Ethereum will have to be re-evaluated with a much larger economic role in mind, and this brings us to Raul Pal, who goes beyond Ethereum and applies this infrastructure argument to the entire tier-one sector .
There are some fairly simple bets. You can just own Bitcoin. This will work. It will not fall to zero. Over time, the level of acceptance increases. ETH. ETH is the most time-tested smart contract platform. I have grouped together the smart contract platforms that I think are relevant because I have worked extensively on them.
And ETH has the greatest economic and intellectual density, as well as the greatest Lindy effect. ETH has more developers, protocols, layers, use cases, users, DeFi—it’s all there in ETH. This is why the financial system will likely adopt EVM, ETH, and other layer 1 networks as core , because they have all the necessary proven elements.
He is extremely safe, he has never stopped, and we know everything about him. Perfectly. ETH is great. Solana, a newer token that appeared, apparently, last cycle. It shows better results because it's newer, but it also solves one of the key problems: it's faster and cheaper. So, it is fast, cheap, and safe.
This opens up many new possibilities that were not present in ETH and are not even present in the first and second layer networks of ETH. Second-tier ETH levels typically do not accumulate as much value as first-tier levels. The first levels are the protocol level. This is the infrastructure layer for the Internet.
This is the infrastructure level where AI meets the internet, the global level of coordination. This is why Layer 1 networks are so important: they are the infrastructure of the future, and everything is built on them. If you think about the second tier based on ETH, it only builds and multiplies the value of ETH itself.
Raul Pal extends the optimistic argument beyond Ethereum and Bitcoin, focusing on the infrastructure that will support the next generation of the global digital economy. In his opinion, first- level blockchains are not just speculative assets. They become the basic infrastructure where applications, financial markets, artificial intelligence, and ultimately machine-to-machine trading can operate.
Pal says Bitcoin is one of the easiest long-term bets as its adoption continues to grow. When he moves on to Ethereum, his argument becomes even more specific. He calls Ethereum the most stable smart contract platform due to its developers, protocols, users, decentralized finance, and established ecosystem.
He believes this combination gives Ethereum a huge advantage as financial institutions continue to explore blockchain infrastructure. But Pal also sees room for newer networks. He points to Solana as a faster and cheaper alternative that can support use cases that Ethereum handles less efficiently. This does not necessarily weaken Ethereum's position.
Instead, Pal sees a broader blockchain economy where different first-tier networks specialize in different tasks. This vision becomes increasingly relevant in 2026. The Ethereum Foundation claims that Ethereum's first layer is evolving as a global hub for settlements, liquidity, and DeFi, while second layer networks are expanding its capabilities.
Ethereum also describes AI agents as a new class of users capable of storing capital and making transactions without direct human involvement. So, for Pal, the opportunity is much bigger than just one token. He sees first-level blockchains as the foundation for expanding the digital economy. And if the economy grows as fast as he expects, the cost of owning this infrastructure could become colossal.
If we combine the arguments of Tom Lee and Raul Pal, the bullish forecast becomes much larger than the Ethereum price target. Their thesis points to a financial system where blockchain networks become key infrastructure for transferring money, issuing assets, and coordinating the economy. And there are already signs that this shift is going beyond experiments.
BlackRock recently introduced tokenized shares of European money market funds with $311 billion in assets on the Ethereum blockchain in partnership with JP Morgan's Onyx. This is important because it shows that tokenization is no longer just a concept discussed by crypto-native companies. Traditional financial institutions are actively moving real financial products online.
The stablecoin economy is also expanding. Circle reported that USDC transaction volume reached $ 14.8 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, up 151% from last year. The Ethereum mainnet currently holds over $155 billion in stablecoins, alongside a growing economy of tokenized real assets. That is why Lee's multi-trillion dollar thesis on Ethereum and Raoul's thesis on layer one infrastructure deserve attention.
They are not dependent on a single short-term price movement. They are based on the possibility of a gradual transition of most of the world economy to blockchain rails. There will still be volatility, competition, and periods when prices move in the opposite direction. But if adoption grows and institutions continue to build networks, the opportunities could become much greater than the current market suggests.
And this, ultimately, is the main optimistic signal for 2026. The crypto market may not just be recovering— it may be building . So, friend.
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