저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
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12월 금리 인하는 불확실하다고 보며, 3분기 실질 GDP 4%와 관세 영향 PPI 상방 압력을 근거로 든다. 비트코인은 GENIUS법 이후 교환수단 기능이 약하고 약세가 지속될 것으로 보며, 나스닥은 비트코인과 디커플링될 것으로 본다. AI 투자는 GPU 감가상각 불확실성과 Gemini 3 등장으로 조정 가능성이 있고, 수혜는 클라우드 제공업체에 있으며 시장이 S&P 493으로 넓어질 수 있다고 본다. 엔 캐리 트레이드 리스크는 과거 사례처럼 정리 가능하다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
For the time being, let's bring in uh Ed Yadini, president of Yadini Research into the conversation. He's our first guest on the show. Mr. Yadini, thanks very much for joining in. Always a pleasure having you on. So, which camp are you in? Will 25 basis points get delivered in December? I don't think so.
I think the uh economic data is going to show that uh uh real GDP is coming in at something like 4% in the third quarter. Uh the fourth quarter is going to be somewhat confusing with the government shutdown. Uh, but I think we're going to see the PPI this week come in a little bit on the hot side because I think tariffs continue to put some upward pressure on durable goods inflation.
And I I kind of stick with what uh Powell said at his press conference only a few weeks ago and that was that uh a uh a rate cut in December is not inevitable. Uh and uh he he was kind of frustrated. He said, you know, we've already done 150 basis points uh cut in the past year. Maybe it's time to just kind of pause again and and see how things unfold.
So, I I think that it's not inevitable that there's going to be a rate cut, even though uh the uh president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York made it sound as though maybe things were were changing uh at the top levels of the of the Fed. All right. Hi, Ed. Good morning. Good to see you. And a quick question with regard to the cryptocurrency market that's falling apart.
Do you see any kind of contagion to the equity markets? Point number one. And the second factor is you know you're clearly clear with regard to your stance on the Fed. But with the yen weakening, there is a growing concern that Japan may go ahead and raise rates. The yen carry trade then could face some disruption and that could spill away to global equities.
Do you think that's a risk? Well, to start with your last question, I think that uh we've already what about a year ago, we had a stress test of the of the yen trade. These things can be cleaned up pretty quickly. And I I think uh yen traders have recognized that it's a volatile situation right now.
They can't count on uh rates to be low in Japan and and they can't really predict where the currency is going to go. For now, it looks like it's going to go down. Uh I do think that much of the weakness in the stock market last week related to the uh the freef fall in the crypto market particularly in Bitcoin.
You know, a lot of people miss this, but back in July, the United States Congress and the president enacted a act called the Genius Act. And the Genius Act basically established stable coin, dollar-based stable coins that'll be backed by Treasury bills. And that means Bitcoin really doesn't have a purpose as a transaction media.
And not that it ever was because it's so volatile. So that leaves it as a store of value. And that hasn't been so so predictable. You know, a couple years ago, Bitcoin had a real fall, but then Wall Street and the Trump administration came in and did some uh took some actions that boosted the uh the Bitcoin.
I don't think they're going to do that again this time, or they've already done it, let's put it that way. So, I think Bitcoin is going to remain weak, but I think the NASDAQ increasingly is going to diverge from Bitcoin. they had been uh tracking each other very closely but I I don't think that continues.
M um yeah I mean on a spectrum I guess Ed right there is uh there there's technology there's unprofitable technology there is uh new age stuff unproven stuff and then there is bitcoin crypto right so in a way it's the most speculative part of uh the spectrum and it kind of just maybe there's a sentiment I mean in terms of signaling effect it's a sentiment indicator that maybe uh it's I don't know if there's anything beyond that in terms of crypto as you say right uh in terms of signaling value.
Yeah, look and at the beginning of the month uh I I did think that there might be a a pullback uh in the market because the bull bear ratio that I follow uh was extremely high. So I concluded there's too many bulls and we need some correction correcting in the sentiment and that seems to be playing out quite well.
In addition to that, as you mentioned, it's not just crypto. We also have uh everybody kind of conceding that we really don't know what's going on with the accounting for earnings by these companies that buy these uh Nvidia GPU chips. You know, we don't know how long the GPU chips can be used. There's some talk that, you know, after one to two to three years, they're no good anymore.
You might as well throw them out. And and there's others saying, "No, no, no. they'll they'll be good for for five to six years so they can be depreciated over that period of time. I think this has just become and let's be honest this is a known unknown nobody really knows and as a result of that some of the excitement and froth in the AI trade has come out and it may stay out for a little while
and and the new thing was Google's Gemini 3 last week right uh yeah and that's the other thing right everyone just assumed that uh open AI and everyone around it is is basically going to win this thing this AI thing and now suddenly you've got Google Gemini which bic basically is uh topping performance charts against chat GPD etc.
and now it kind of throws everything into a tail spin once again. So one is not sure anymore who the winner is. So it's it's there's that aspect of this as well. Absolutely. As a matter of fact, I was using uh chat GPT. I was using the uh co-pilot version that Microsoft has and then a couple of days ago I switched over the to Gemini 3 uh and for some more in-depth research.
I I mean I'm using them all. Uh and I and I'm using AI all all day as a research tool. So I I think that the the winners are going to be the cloud providers. uh they are expanding their capacity as fast as they can because the demand for that capacity continues to increase. So I think you if you have a diversified portfolio of AI stocks, you'll probably do all right.
But uh I I think they're they're due for a bit of a pause here. And I wouldn't be surprised if the market broadens out from the Magnificent 7, which includes most of the hyperscalers, the AI big AI stocks. I think it brought on out to what I call the impressive 493. Yeah. No, absolutely. By the way, are you uh are you paying for Gemini or or using the free one?
No, at this point I'm not. I think it's kind of a on a trial basis. Okay. And by the time I think about uh paying for it, maybe somebody will come out with an even better model that there's a new there's a new Chinese one called Kimmy Kim Mi. I mean, which is also apparently all these things. Like I said, I think I think the LLM, the company that sells the large language models are not going to be the ones that make the money.
It'll be simply the cloud produc providers. Yeah. Yeah. Thanks very much, Ed. Great speaking with you. Thank you very much for joining us. Really a pleasure having you with us here on CBC TV8.
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